Rays & Rangers
Submitted by: Zsnow
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Burger | 30 | Majors | DH | 3B | Low | 3 | 11.4 | 8.3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 3.7 |
| Josh Smith | 28 | Majors | UTIL | OF | Medium | 3 | 36.7 | 16.1 | 20.6 | 16.5 | 20.6 | 24.7 |
| Aidan Curry | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 |
Total Value:
24.6
Rangers
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger | 32 | Majors | RP | Medium | 2 | 12.5 | 6 | 6.5 | 5.2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | |
| Jonathan Aranda | 28 | Majors | 1B | DH | Medium | 4 | 43.9 | 25.7 | 18.1 | 14.5 | 18.1 | 21.8 |
Total Value:
24.6
Comments
8TB is rebuilding so I don't think they'd move Aranda or want that particular package, Yandy Diaz for some good prospects would make a lot of sense for both teams though IMO
Hard no from the Rays. Aranda is the Rays 2nd best player with 4 years of control. He’s not going anywhere unless it’s for a $50MM trade package.
I don’t think I agree with your assessment. Smith is around a league average bat and he’s generally weak in the field. Not awful in the field but not great either. I’d rather see what the future holds with C.Williams, the Rays top prospect, at SS. More to the point, I want to see what the future holds with Aranda at 1B and Williams at SS.
I was thinking giving up Smith who can play SS and be a 110-115 OPS+ or 10-15% better than average player with 3 years of team control would be a good replacement for Walls who is horrendous with the bat. Smith also could be entering his prime 3 years and may benefit from a set position and increase to a 120 OPS 4.5 WAR SS. I like Josh Smith and would hate to see him go, but the Rangers need to upgrade 1B and could sign someone like Rengifo or Arraez to play 2B. The Rays also have Tre Morgan, GG caliber 1B waiting in the wings, has been very solid with the bat as well. Also, Williams will be the Joey Gallo of SS. 35-40% K rate. My reasoning was to utilize Smiths ability to play SS. He’s not bumping Seager off. Smith becomes a little less valuable as a 2B. Burger also has 3 years of team control left and hits 25-30 HRs when he gets 135+ games in. Maybe the Rangers would need to include 2 better prospects like a 7-15 and a 15-25 guy.
I don’t disagree with your view of Walls. I’d love to be through with him. Unfortunately, the Rays like him and his defense. As for Williams, I understand your concern, but there are several reasons to think he will be better in the K dept than Gallo. At any rate, he’s said to be elite in the field like Walls, which is the Rays top priority with the SS position. Rays wouldn’t play Smith at SS. I feel very confident in saying that. He’s not good enough in the field for them. So while I understand your reasoning for the trade, I don’t think this trade will interest the Rays for the reasons you’ve laid out. Maybe Smith could play 2B for them. That said, under no circumstances can I see the Rays trading Aranda for his BTV value. He hit 146 wRC+ last year and he doesn’t suffer from a need to platoon him. Maybe there are other players on the Rays team that might interest Texas but Aranda at less than $20MM shouldn’t happen.
What would the Rays want in a package for Aranda & Cleavinger?
If I’m the Rays I would take the position that Aranda is younger and better than Alonso, who just signed for 5/$155MM, so the trade cost would be very high. Aranda is expected to make about $26MM according to BTV over the next 4 years, so we are looking at about $90ish million surplus value. Discount that some because of the lack of track record and minor injuries that have placed him on IL many of his seasons and I’d say a $50-60MM in trade value is a bargain if the starting point is “Aranda isn’t available.” The only reason to consider trading him is the fact that the Rays will be uncompetitive in 2026 and will probably lose 2027 because of the lockout. That’s 2 of his 4 years of control right there. So what does Texas have that the Rays will want? Walcott is the easy answer and a 1:1 trade would work for the Rays. After him is Corniell. His injury risk is concerning but I’d still take the chance. Obviously, Scarborough would work too. Trentadue, Pence and Abeldt would all work too because they have decent tools and are all lefties, which the Rays need. Unfortunately, what the Rays need most the Rangers don’t have or are probably unwilling to trade. (e.g., big bat prospects). As for Cleavinger, I can see him being moved at the deadline but not before the season. He’s about the only lefty reliever on the team and the Rays are unlikely to trade him.
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Smith could play SS everyday and be a 3.5-4.5 WAR player. You’d be upgrading on offense by 40% vs Walls. Burger could hit 20-25 hrs. Curry is a good pitching prospect