| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pablo Lopez | 30 | Majors | SP | Medium | 2 | 16.4 | 43 | -26.6 | -31.9 | -26.6 | -21.3 | |
| Joe Ryan | 30 | Majors | SP | Low | 2 | 67.1 | 15.4 | 51.7 | 41.4 | 51.7 | 62.1 |
Total Value:
25.1
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JR Ritchie | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14.5 | 11.6 | 14.5 | 17.4 | ||
| Alex Lodise | 22 | Minors | SS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 10.7 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 12.9 |
Total Value:
25.2
Question - Joe Ryan seems to have a pretty high surplus for someone on the last year of his deal. I know there is a mutual option for 2027, but those are extremely rare to be executed - something like less than 5% are ever executed, and the last one was in 2014 - so does a mutual option weigh the same as a team option for his value, as noted in the "valuing major leaguers" section of the site? If so, that should be revised - I'd argue the models should count a mutual option as becoming an UFA given the rarity of mutual options working out (maybe this is how it is already handled).
We're not counting the mutual option, as those never get executed. But despite that, the Twins still have him for two years, as 2027 would simply revert to an arbitration year once the mutual option is declined.
Ah! I did not realize that would revert to an arb year, that makes much more sense now. Thank you!