Guardians & Rays
Submitted by: kzeke
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Diaz | 34 | Majors | 1B | Medium | 2 | 33 | 26 | 7 | 5.6 | 7 | 8.4 |
Total Value:
7
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Mobley | 20 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.5 | ||
| Dauri Fernandez | 19 | Minors | SS | 3B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 10.1 |
Total Value:
10.5
Comments
12
Neither of the Guardian prospects would interest me if I ran the Rays.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
With Hoskins looking solid, I do not see the need for Diaz in Cleveland... Cleveland has Hoskins, Manzardo and Fry for 1B... JRam for 3B...
LOL…. Really? Best you’re going to get out of Hoskins/Fry/Manzardo is what… 110 wRC+? Yandy won’t hit 192 wRC+ all season but he’s a huge improvement on that threesome.
I am not saying Diaz isn't a slightly better hitter, but Manzardo had a 110 OPS+ with 27 HRs in his first full season... Hoskins was well over 120 OPS+ before the injuries... Fry was mishandled last season after coming off of Tommy John... They have 4 guys that are solid in the same positions that Diaz plays... I really think they need to find that bat that plays other positions... They need a true producer from 2B/SS... Also they have two in the farm in Kayfus and Ralphy who can hit and plays 1B... Just not the smartest use of resources right now.
It’s fine to say Cleveland has other needs than 1B/DH, but you’re crazy if you think Diaz is just “slightly better” than any Cleveland player at 1B/DH (particularly DH). Diaz’s bat is 20-30% better and that’s huge. You’re talking about 2 extra wins here.
Yandy is a better contact hitter than Hoskins, but Hoskins has always had better power. Id rather have Diaz than Hoskins, but to get Diaz, we would have to give up good prospects plus cut Hoskins and to me Diaz isn't enough of an upgrade to merit that.
https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2022&season=2026&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pagenum=1
My comment above is the last 4 years of Major League baseball, if you're curious who Yandy Diaz truly is "slightly better than". He's not slightly better than Hoskins and Manzardo. He's slightly better than Kyle Tucker, Vlad Guerrero, Matt Olson, and Bryce Harper. All those guys are getting another $200 million well into the next decade. Yandy is on team options for middle reliever money. Bazzana gets it done. Velazquez and Chourio gets it done. 30 million in excess value at bare minimum. Yandy doesn't get hurt. It's 1200 PA of a 150 wRC+ bat for $22 million. If you look at that list, you'll see Kyle Tucker right below Yandy. Kyle Tucker will make more by June than Yandy does the next 2 seasons.
Yandy at his age would never get Bazzana or Velazquez... He is not a strong defender and brings no value as a baserunner... As a bat he's solid, but loses a lot of value cause he doesn't hit HRs like the other stars do and those names you mentioned can field at least a bit... Cleveland traded Diaz because of his defense and his unwillingness to try LF when he was in Cleveland... I know what the guy can do, but the differences are not worth the trade of prospects to Cleveland otherwise they would have gotten Diaz already...
Bryce Harper and Vlad Guerrero are the worst fielders in baseball. Throw in Schwarber too as another player that Yandy ranks better than over the last 4 years. Schwarber can't even fake it in the field. If you want 5 wins for the cost of 2 wins, it's going to cost you 30 Mil in excess value. If you want that mid season requiring the Rays to give up on their season, it's going to cost even more. That's why I say it starts with Bazzana. Or you could have signed a worse player Pete Alonso for $150 mil or try to trade for Vladito, Schwarber, Harper for similar production. I think 2 years of Yandy for $22 million and a not-top-10 prospect is a lot better deal than any of the alternatives. Or maybe Jose Ramirez alone can get the Guards to the post season. Seems a better idea to replace league average bats with a bat 40-50% better than league average though.
SportsCoach - With all due respect, I don't believe you know what Yandy can do, but you definitely like to focus on what he can't do; however, you're ignoring that in the past 3 years Yandy has won a batting title, hit an average of 20.3 HRs per season, and averaged 3.3 fWAR per season. I don't agree with Shaq that Yandy will net a top 25 prospect in baseball, but he's a damn good player historically, he's on pace for his best season ever at the moment, and he could be a difference maker for a contender if the Rays aren't in the playoff race. BTV knocks his trade value because of their expectation that Yandy's wheels will fall off at some point and make the 2027 contract an underwater obligation. That seems less and less likely in my opinion, and I suspect Yandy will net a much better trade return than what BTV (and you) feel he's worth. Time will tell... Personally, I don't care if Yandy nets $10MM in trade value or $30MM, I just want prospects with real potential to become top prospects and/or ML stars one day. The Aroz trade has aged very well in that respect, and I expect a Yandy trade to as well. Shaq isn't wrong that Yandy compares to the best players in baseball, and with most teams in baseball now analytically focused, most know a player like Yandy is a better bet at 1/3 the cost than a HR hitter like Alonso (who also isn't a very good defender or base runner).
Rays aren’t trading Yandy before the deadline, so you may feel differently by July. That said, since Hoskins left Philly after the 2022 season, he missed the 2023 season entirely and has batted .222/.315/.416 (104 wRC+) from 2024-26, while Yandy has hit .294/.359/.454 (131 wRC+) over the same time period. Yandy has also hit over 20 HRs in 2 of the past 3 seasons (25, 14 and 22 to be exact), while Hoskins has 26 and 12 HRs in the two seasons he was able to play. Now maybe you can see Hoskins as being in the same league as Yandy, power or otherwise, but I can’t. Yandy is a star. Hoskins is a replacement level player.