GM Override: Real trade.
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| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Round A Comp Balance Pick | 0 | Minors | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||
| Matt Wilkinson | 23 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2.4 | 3 | 3.6 |
Total Value:
8
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Bailey | 27 | Majors | C | 3.8 | 62 | 18.4 | 43.6 | 34.9 | 43.6 | 52.3 |
Total Value:
43.6
Insanely lopsided trade, as Bailey is the best defensive catcher in baseball with close to 4 years of cheap control, and averages 3 WAR per season. Guardians gave up almost nothing for that. Granted, Bailey can't hit, and so far this year has been even worse than usual offensively, but the defense is elite, and it will no doubt benefit the Guardians' pitchers. (Our model already discounts for the weak offensive numbers.) Not sure what SF is thinking here, but there may be other issues that have yet to be reported.
The only way this makes any sense is if full ABS is coming as soon as next year.
Honestly, it won't happen anytime soon...
What are your overall thoughts here SC? Assume it’s good news for Ingle, though I think you’re right that he’s positioned more for Fry like role
It's a weird move... Cleveland upgraded defensively at C, while not moving much, so they still have a ton of trade assets... I think Naylor is on the trading block and I wonder if Ingle will start seeing reps at LF? If Ingle is playing LF, we could see Kwan on his way out... If Ingle isn't stuck at C, he could be up after the trade deadline... I think the move value wise was good, but without a second future move, very weird...
Probably doesn’t hurt to have C depth, but with you on it being a precursor. My guess is a Bo change of scenery move follows. And Ingle LF/C for versatility. Also think you’re onto something with Kwan. One game, but Ralphy got work in LF last night and the team has been atypically aggressive this season with regards to player movement.
Watch to see if Ingle or Naylor play any OF... But I cannot see Naylor here passed the trade deadline...
I should note also that our model is not yet weighting 2026 results too heavily yet, as it's still too early in the season. We did run some numbers two days ago (as a what-if exercise) to see what they'd look like if 2026 performance numbers were more heavily weighted, and in that version, Bailey is at 22-ish in surplus value -- about half of what's listed here. We don't usually shift it this early, but there are signs in the marketplace that suggest decisions are being made earlier than usual, so we're considering it with the next update.
Do you think the draft pick and Wilkinson are worth 20? Even on the high side, I don't think they are... Cleveland set themselves up nicely one way or the other with this move...
It looks like a strong draft class, so it's possible that 5 number on the draft pick is a touch low, but Wilkinson is not likely to be worth more than his current number. I can't see that package being worth more than, say, 12.
I think Wilkinson can get into the same category as Logan Allen, but I agree his value shouldn't be much higher... Cleveland's FO has a way of making some moves no one could expect. I sincerely never thought we would trade for Bailey right now let alone, for essentially two prospects...
Of all the mornings to sleep in. Any other major moves rumored from the Giants?
💁🏼♀️ Not all Round A Comp picks are worth the same 5 in value, the same goes for Round B Comp picks and their 2.5 value. I think this trade points that out. But still, it’s an Insanely lopsided trade. ⚾️
How is Patrick Bailey a 43.6. He’s a 224 career hitter. Yes he’s great at defense that shouldn’t make up for the black hole he is on offense
He has almost four years of control, and has consistently averaged 3 WAR per season, per Fangraphs. That defensive value more than makes up for the lack of offense.
His Bwar is a career 3.5. I get the whole defensive catcher thing but he’s a horrible offensive catcher. I don’t really think I value him that highly at all
Most front offices use fWAR as the standard, which is why we do as well. That (as well as some Statcast metrics) suggests his defensive value far outweighs his terrible offense.
I think Bailey is a bit high and maybe the Giants valued Wilkinson (high floor type) and what the 29th pick, so maybe they were a bit higher, but that doesn't make up the difference and just weird timing for the Guardians since Ingle and Huff are both doing extremely well at AAA... I mean Bailey is an upgrade over Naylor, with the glove, so I feel like Cleveland set themselves up nicely for another move...
Bailey can’t hit, he’s terrible with ABS, he’s not good at throwing out runners, he can’t hold on to the ball with plays at the plate, he’s got a piss poor attitude and is currently the 4th best Catcher in the Giants Org. Baileys way over valued here.