GM Override: trade deadline tax on rental SP, usually around 10 on this website.
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Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freddy Peralta | 30 | Majors | SP | Medium | 0.4 | 11.8 | 3.4 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 10.1 |
Total Value:
8.4
Mets
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brody Hopkins | 24 | Minors | SP | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18.9 | 15.1 | 18.9 | 22.6 |
Total Value:
18.9
Frankly I wouldn't want to touch anyone that played for this plague of a Mets team, but unless Stearns is really a horrible trade negotiator, this has been the going rate for rental SPs of Peralta's caliber. I'd rather get bats back than arms personally, I'd be ok with Slater de Brun and Emilien Pitre. But if Merrill Kelly, Shane Bieber, Jack Flaherty and Yusei Kikuchi can all get around 11 in surplus more than their actual value, then so can Peralta. This is just an example, I figure TB will be in the SP market.
Your rule of thumb isn’t a rule of thumb. It will apply to a few pitchers I’m sure but not across the board.
Yeah I agree you aren't going to get a markup of 10 just because you are a rental SP no matter who you are. McCullers just got traded for literally nothing, Sugano and Mikolas if moved would get nothing. A pitcher with Peralta's track record I am pretty confident will get more than what his BTV says unless Stearns is a pushover (he might be). Zac Gallen for example last year didn't get moved and he had a worse first half than Peralta, but turned it around in the 2nd half, 3.32 ERA 3.95 FIP in 65 IP.