GM Override: Real Trade.
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| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Curtis Mead | 25 | Majors | 1B | 2B | 3.4 | 33.1 | 21.7 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 13.7 |
Total Value:
11.4
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Connelly Early | 24 | Majors | SP | 5.4 | 58.8 | 28.1 | 30.7 | 24.6 | 30.7 | 36.9 |
Total Value:
30.7
I hate Craig Breslow.
Real trade reported by Jeff Passan of ESPN
This real trade makes the site’s values look real bad. Not saying there isn’t an overpay on Boston’s side, but by 20 points?
Mead was a highly ranked prospect, failed through all his option years, was available for free, and then goes to Washington and has a really great half season with the bat. The under the hood stuff looks good, although he's not a bat speed monster. Lots of red on Mead's savant page. Is the breakout this year real? His fielding metrics are horrendous this season, at 3B and 1B. I’m trusting Breslow on electing to move on from Early (who had a rather meteoric rise) but I question the decision to acquire Mead both for his bat and defensive capabilities.
Breslow went full Preller.
Two teams taking a risk on their breakouts being real and sustainable with an extra measure of injury concern for Early (which could be difference in values?).
Possibly. Now, is Breslow done shopping?
I was just thinking the same thing. He very well could be. I’m expecting a relatively quiet deadline, maybe an RP
I’ve got to try and find some positive in this….. Players that have at least 50 PA in each of the four months so far and at least a .200 Isolated Power in each: Willson Contreras, Curtis Mead, Junior Caminero, Dillon Dingler, Juan Soto, CJ Abrams, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Miguel Vargas. Plus, Mead has the 32nd highest air pull of all right handed batters. Good for Fenway.
Mead is out of options, and has been traded a couple times already, by three different teams -- the last time being for Boston Smith (!). Yes, he's having a breakout season, but it's a small sample size relative to his career numbers and profile. Early still has strong prospect pedigree.
What do y’all do when real trades are rejected by your model?
We re-examine them and see if there's anything we missed. It's also important to remember that there are always outliers -- that's totally normal. But for the most part, an outlier doesn't change the approach. We have enough of a track record that one data point isn't going to move the needle overall.
Appreciate the explanation
I agree, I believe that they do a good job in some aspects but I wrote a comment about how Sonny gray has just about the same kind of contract as Eduardo Rodrgiuez. Erod, is having a better season yet his value is -11 points and was -20 not to long ago yet Gray was around 0 to plus 5. Someone said some random metric was the reason. The analytics kill baseball. Emotion and player chemistry are value as well. Is that factored into the numbers in player value?