Diamondbacks & Guardians & Marlins
Submitted by: LetsGoFish
Diamondbacks
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J J Bleday | Minors | OF | 11.9 | 9.5 | 11.9 | 14.3 | ||||||
| Garrett Cooper | 30 | Majors | 1B | DH | Medium | 2 | 16.7 | 7.5 | 9.2 | 7.4 | 9.2 | 11 |
| Cal Quantrill | 26 | Majors | SP | Medium | 4 | 44.6 | 18.5 | 26.1 | 20.9 | 26.1 | 31.4 |
Total Value:
47.2
Guardians
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seth Beer | Minors | 1B | 4.8 | 3.8 | 4.8 | 5.8 | ||||||
| Griffin Conine | Minors | OF | 5 | 4 | 5 | 6 | ||||||
| Pablo Lopez | 25 | Majors | SP | Medium | 3 | 93.5 | 39.7 | 53.8 | 43 | 53.8 | 64.6 |
Total Value:
63.6
Marlins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Clase | 23 | Majors | RHRP | Low | 5 | 56.6 | 18.8 | 37.8 | 22.6 | 30.2 | 37.8 | |
| Steven Kwan | Minors | OF | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 1.2 | ||||||
| Bryan Lavastida | Minors | C | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 | ||||||
| Ketel Marte | 27 | Majors | 2B | OF | Low | 3 | 67.2 | 26.4 | 40.8 | 32.6 | 40.8 | 49 |
Total Value:
76.5
Comments
19Cleveland will keep Quantrill and their Closer Clase and quickly say no to this offer.
I like this move for the Marlins. There's no such thing as too much starting pitching, but you can only use 1 in a wild card game, and 3 in a playoff series. The Marlins trade their 3rd or 4th best starters(or 5th if Sixto and Meyer come out blazing) for their best position player since Giancarlo. The Marlins use an area of abundance to address a pretty poor offense offense. I wouldn't be shocked to see Cleveland hit the reset button and rebuild. If they decide to supplement their roster, I like this move for them. Quantrill is cheap, but that's about the only thing I like about him. Relievers are so volatile. They're good, until they aren't. I think the Diamondbacks would want more potential high end talent. Quantrill has had a nice year, but most of his value is being a cheap #4 with 2 more years or arbitration. Cooper's value is a platoon masher, but he's soon to be a FA. I think the Diamondbacks would rather have a few 20 year olds instead of a 27 year old and a 31 year old.
Love this for the fish
Oatmeal, If you are insulted by being called uninformed, then you must be constantly hurt all of the time. There was more than the two month injury to Bieber that affected this season. It is hard for any team to lose almost their whole starting staff for months and still compete when that is the strength of the team. If Cleveland would do the rebuild that you think they should make, why would they trade players with more team control, for a trade package where the main piece has less control returning to Cleveland as this proposal would suggest. From 2013 - 2020, the Cleveland Indians won more games than every MLB team except the Dodgers and did that on their small market budget. Their front office is excellent at balancing the needs of today's team and that of the future to remain competitive. Their farm system is ranked in the top ten on many sites. They don't plan on a rebuild and their success over the last decade trumps your uninformed view which you admitted to when you stated, "I haven't watched the Indians much." As far as your unfunny rebuttal, I have been following MLB for 56 years and my mother passed away 10 years ago and my father 20 years ago. Your lack of humor matches your amount of knowledge and understanding of the Cleveland Indians and how they have to operate as a small market team. This is my final comment I will make to you. I am putting you on ignore for this trade and any future ones that you propose. You have a wonderful day.
You quoting how many top 100 lists those guys are on does nothing to tell me or you how they actually performed this year. Those lists were made in February based on 2019 evaluations. When 2022 lists come out, Nolan Jones will plummet. He was very successful in AA as a 21 year old. He was a flop in AAA as a 23 year old. He is slow, doesn't hit for power, doesn't make contact enough, and plays corner infield. He has 2 things going for him: his raw power and a good idea of the strike zone, but if his raw power doesn't translate to game power, he's not a Major Leaguer. He had a poor 2021 for a preseason top 50 prospect. Freeman has a 4% walk rate this year. If you are only going to walk 4% of the time, you better be a really good defender or hit for a lot of power. (Tim Anderson, Jose Iglesias, Sal Perez). The list of successful Major Leaguers who only draw a walk once a week is very small. Valera had a good first half, but was overmatched in AA. His K% rose a full 10% upon promotion to AA, over a large enough sample size to see his K rate and BB rate stablize. He was overmatched in AA. Not a bad year, but not an impressive one either. The Indians have 2 top 100 prospects tops. For a team that will finish 15 games out of the Wild Card, that's not good. Again...everybody deals with injuries. You can't miss the playoffs by 15 games, and blame it on 2 injuries. The Indians have 2 really really good players, and a lot of meh after that. Quantrill and Plesac fall squarely in the "meh" category. 4.5 xFIPs do nothing for me.
For the record, our prospect valuations are up to date. We monitor both their performances and all the midseason updates from public evaluators (Baseball America, in particular, has been quite on top of it, and their ratings carry the highest weightings in our model). So it is not accurate to suggest these are based in preseason numbers based on 2019. Quite the opposite.
I was responding to the comment stating that "I will not find a top 100 list without these players on it". The initial 2021 "top 100" lists are very outdated, because they are really 2019 lists. It's nobody's fault, there was no season in 2020. Even "updated" lists are valuations based on a dozen games in 2 years for starting pitchers. That's how Shane Baz isn't in the top 50 on fangraphs, and Joe Ryan isn't in the top 100 on BaseballAmerica. This site (you) do a great job, but prospect evaluators were in the dark for 15 months. The lists povieded by BaseballAmeica, Prospectus, and and Fangraphs aren't as accurate as in years past, because they can't be. How is the KATOH simulation going to be run when there is a year of developmental data missing for everyone? My point wasn't that this site misjudged the talent evaluation. My point was that the commenter pointed to lists that were based on 2019 performances, because there was no 2020 performance to update. Unless a 2019 prospect lost a leg in a car accident, his April 2021 initial evaluation would be exactly the same as his September 2019 evaluation. And it takes more than 200 bad PA to drop from a list that gets updated once per season. When the season ends, and new lists are compiled, Nolan Jones will no longer be a top 50 prospect. Shane Baz will no longer be outside of the top 50. And Joe Ryan will certainly land on multiple top 100 lists.
While I agree with most of that (and thanks for your kind words), I will still defend BA, as they have been scouting and updating quite frequently. Their latest Top 100 list was published a week ago, and it included many changes. Baz is #11. Jones has fallen to #74. And indeed, Joe Ryan is on there at #97. There were intermittent updates before that, which had Baz steadily climbing, and now here we are.
Also, I know baseballamerica updates more often than anyone. But they are also subscription only, and lists drive their viewership. I place more credence in their initial offerings than their updates which slide prospects around a half dozen spots, but rarely see any substantial movement. I think it's more about providing a new list, than "Player X had 5 great starts in July, and is really deserving of gaining 6 spots in our latest update next week". Player development is evolutionary, and monumental changes are slow. I put less credence in a list updated every 3 weeks, than I do a list made in December, and updated in July.
Didn't see your comment when I posted my last one. I saw Baz is up to 11 on America's list, but he's still 60th on Fangraphs "updated" list. I didn't see Ryan had cracked their top 100. I guess they couldn't ignore a good MLB debut. There's going to be in-season disagreements, because so little baseball has been played. There's going to be biases based on ideas and beliefs held for 17 months of no baseball, that will be hard to let go of. I think the offseason will see the lists more closely line up, as recency biases overtake previously held beliefs. I'll reiterate though, none of my comments were made to degrade this site. It's fantastic, and does an incredible job of placing value. My comments were made to the Guardians fans above, who believe their club is in fantastic position to win now, and in the future. I disagreed with them.
Since the all star break, Quantrill has been one of the best starters in the American League and he has an extra year of control over Lopez. Clase is young, talented, and has 5 years of control remaining after this season. A small market team like Cleveland does not trade solid controllable players. I would be shocked to see Cleveland hit the reset button and rebuild since that viewpoint is contrary to how they have operated. They have controllable starting pitching returning (Bieber, Civale, Quantrill, McKenzie, and Plesac) and a strong farm system. They have no need to enter a rebuild. Also, Quantrill has 4 more years of control and has yet to reach arbitration. Cleveland and Arizona both say no to this one.
I said the wrong thing above "Quantrill has had a nice year, but most of his value is being a cheap #4 with 2 more years or arbitration. " I don't know what I was trying to say. I knew Quantrill wasn't heading into his 2nd year of arb, but that's what I typed. He has 4 more years of team control, but he might be a super 2. Quantrill would be a 27 year old who doesn't miss bats and has poor spin. He's kind of a right handed Ryan Yarbrough, in that he's going to fool you with 5 pitches and get you to hit it weakly somewhere. He's a nice #3 or #4 with 4 years of team control, but he's no one the Diamondbacks should seek out in a trade for their best asset, nor is he someone the Indians should be afraid to trade if they feel the need to. Nonody is making an all star team with a bottom 20% K rate, bottom 20% whiff percentage, bottom 20% spin rate. Generally, the Indians don't let assets reach free agency. Kluber, Lindor, Bauer, Cleavenger... They will not let Jose Ramirez reach free agency, and he only has 2 years left. Their manager might retire, their only good position player will be traded this offseason or the next, and although they have a pretty good farm, only 2 of their top 10 prospects started the year above A ball. The're a below .500 team, 10 games back of the wild card, 12 games back of the division. They have 2 good pitchers, and 3 or 4 decent ones. Even if we went liberal with our definition of "good pitcher" to anyone over 1.5 fWAR, and bumped it to 4 good pitchers, the Indians are probably rebuilding. They are light years behind the teams ahead of them in the division and the Wild Card.
Judging by what you posted here about Quantrill you're probably more astute only speaking on whatever team you follow. First off, Cleveland isn't rebuilding and had it not been for their top 3 SP getting injured simultaneously then they're likely in the WC mix if not leading it altogether. Quantrill is pitching like a FOR starter and has been for several starts now. He's all of 26 and yet to enter his prime. Then you want Cleveland to deal Clase as well? You realize they don't need Beer or Lopez don't you? Mike Chernoff would never approve of this offer, but I understand why the Miami and Arizona GM's would.
I haven't watched the Indians much. Not much sense in watching teams that miss the postseason by 15 games. They are the 4th or 5th best team in the AL central in 2022. Detroit has far exceeded expectations, and have plenty of money to spend. The Royals have exceeded expectations, and have several excellent prospects that will debut early in 2022. Every team deals with injuries. Your team is below .500, and it isn't because Bieber missed 2 months. Tampa Bay isn't 10 games back because Glasnow got hurt. The Red Sox aren't going to finish below .500 because Chris Sale only got 6 starts. Last I checked, the Astros aren't below .500, even though Verlander hasn't pitched in a game this year. Are the White Sox below .500 without Robert? How bout the Braves and Acuna? Remember when the Dodger's playoffs hopes vanished when Clayton Kershaw and Dustin May went on the 60 day IL? Injuries happen. If Zach Plesac getting hurt sinks your playoff chances, and Amed Rosario is your 2nd best position player, you were never a playoff contender to start with. Quantrill doesn't miss bats. Worst 20% in the league. Front of the rotation starters miss bats. The Indians will finish below .500 and lose much of Ramirez' trade value. Nolan Jones busted pretty hard this year in AAA. Tyler Freeman has 6 career home runs, and will be moving to 2nd base. You may not like it, but the Indians are about to tear it down. Valera was over matched in AA. Espino is still multiple years away. Naylor is trash. The organization lacks talent behind Ramirez and Bieber. You may not want to rebuild, but you'll be finishing in 5th place whether you rebuild or not.
Give it up Oatmeal while you are behind. You have absolutely no clue about Cleveland. The only true comment that you stated is that you haven't watched the Indians much. You proved that by your uninformed comment about them.
If me telling you the Indians are not a good team and have very little talent at the big leagues and the upper minors has you upset enough to insult me, I can only imagine how mad you'll be when your mom doesn't quite get the "Guardians" logo right when she paints over the Indians one in your room. And I don't think the Amed Rosario and Franmil fatheads on the wall can take the place of the Lindor and Ramirez ones. The "Guardians" are 5 games below .500 because Bieber only got to pitch in 14 games this year? Keep telling yourself that.
Such an ignorant reply, and you clearly don't understand the Cleveland organization. I don't care if Quantrill pitches to contact because it's hard to square his pitches up and that allows him to pitch deeper into games. He's all of 26 and still developing too which is the scary part. He's just scratching the surface of his potential. This team is barely below .500 because not only did Bieber miss a significant portion of the season, but Civale and Plesac did as well. What was their record prior to those 3 being placed on the IL Oatmeal? I'll help you out. They were 1 game behind the White Sox. While I didn't think they had the offensive punch to make a deep playoff run, they would have certainly been in the WC mix. They have a SP and MIF rich farm system that many rank in the top 10 or higher. Jones is 23 and in AAA. Everything but his BA is on par and you can't find a top 100 prospect ranking without him in it. Freeman is in AA and was raking before his minor injury. You can't find a top 100 prospect list without him in it either. Valera was overmatched in AA you say? Clearly you looked at the wrong stats because he's hit 267/340/407/747 as a 20 yr old in AA. He's also in just about every top 100 list. This basically comes down to you don't know what in the hell you're talking about. Cleveland's organization is in great shape and it they will be significantly adding this offseason. They will announce their new minority owner, they are starting a new era as the Guardians, their investing 10's of millions in park renovations since they just extended the lease through 2036, and finally they have more financial wiggle room than most teams. Even if they only increase the payroll to $75-80 they will be loaded. I'll just go ahead and tell you that JRam will be extended this offseason as well. They removed Bauers and replaced him with Bradley which was an upgrade. They've established more quality SP depth. They signed Straw who is one of the very best defensive CF in all of baseball. They have no FA of concern for next season. Yeah, you're not very well informed on the Cleveland organization's status. I hope this helps you.
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The reliever remark was in regards to Clase. He's probably the best reliever in the game, but I don't value relievers highly, even the best.
I think a 2 team deal between the Dbacks and Marlins for Marte is more realistic but Kwan and Lavastida are two minor leaguers I think could make some impact in the big league level for the Marlins, so that's why I included Clase.