Royals & Padres
Submitted by: IRockThs
Royals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MacKenzie Gore | Minors | LHP | 16.1 | 12.9 | 16.1 | 19.3 | ||||||
| Eric Hosmer | 31 | Majors | 1B | Low | 4.3 | 10.8 | 68 | -58.3 | -68 | -58.3 | -46.6 | |
| Cash | 50 |
Total Value:
7.8
Padres
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Duffy | 32 | Majors | SP | Very high | 0.3 | 5.2 | 5.8 | -0.6 | -1 | -0.6 | -0.2 | |
| MJ Melendez | Minors | C | 7.2 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 8.6 |
Total Value:
6.6
Comments
11A lot of this is to make the trade work. I don't know if the Royals give up Melendez for this trade, but he is somewhat excess goods with Salvy locked up. I also feel like the simulator super undervalues Gore - He's a top 10 prospect and BWJ has a value of 66. I could see a Duffy for Hosmer + Gore with minimal cash exchanged.
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Gore's stock has crashed this year -- he's been struggling badly, lost velocity, lost control, and he's fallen dramatically down BA's Top 100 list. He's nowhere near a Top 10 prospect anymore, which is why is value is low now.
I also noticed you have zapped Merrifield's value in half lately. I think it's a mistake honestly. Frazier is a different player under a much different contract. I get lowering it honestly but i think you have severely undervalued. I doubt he gets moved if thats the case.
One, we just did our monthly update, so part of it was just a function of that -- mostly due to time passing and eroding some of the surplus; two, the Frazier trade was just one of many data points we've seen to suggest that players with those types of position profiles are going for less than their on-paper value. Couple those points with a sub-100 WRC+, a guy who's 32, and seemingly now in his decline phase, and it's justifiable.
I disagree. An overcorrection imo. You guys do an awesome job with this site however. I think you just got burnt badly with the Frazier deal which frankly most of us thought the return was underwhelming a bit. I'm not sure if Whit gets traded but it will be an interesting discussion on the return. And i'm fully prepared to eat crow if i am wrong. I believe taking Whit down from near 40mil value was justified; but not as far as you went.
No problem, and thanks for the kind words. Based on Dayton Moore's comments today, it seems like he floated Merrifield, then pulled back when he didn't get a good offer for him. Which means, in effect, we're both right.
Law still has him at 25, which I guess is a dramatic fall from consideration for the top prospect in baseball. Not that I agree with Law on a lot of things (I don't know if Pratto should be 46 because of a half season with the improved swing). Have to hope Gore gets his release point back. Maybe I need to head over to Peoria and see for myself...
I doubt KC gives up Melendez but i can see Dayton Moore taking on Hoz or Wil Myers. I think Gore will have to be part of the package. Maybe KC owner Sherman will take less cash for another prospect or 2 like a Lange or Haynes. KC has Carlos Santana if they dont trade him plus Nick Pratto near mlb ready so it would require some more trades to make this work. Myers makes a little more sense but i could see Hoz too; though i really dont want him back without a good haul.
This is a really hard trade to make work because of the amount Hosmer is owed. It wouldn't let me make this trade with just Duffy (wanted a valuable player from the Royals) so Melendez is just a placeholder. I think the Royals would trade someone on the lower half of their top 30 (Lucius Fox comes to mind) along with Duffy as the Padres are apparently still considering him as a flyer. This is centered on the rumors that San Diego wants out of the Hosmer contract. Assuming the Royals don't bring back Soler (which they shouldn't) that would open up DH for Santana and 1B for Hosmer. I am not sold on Pratto being near MLB ready with a half season of games with the revamped swing - would have loved to see him in 2020. I think BWJ is 100% this team's starting shortstop in September or next season, but Pratto probably needs more time to adjust to pitching at AAA/MLB. If Hosmer turns things around he will opt out after 2022 (and depending on the CBA), and if not the royals will be more likely to find a trade partner for him when he's only owed 13m/year. This is definitely an out there trade that probably won't happen, but just trying to see what it would look like.
Im more sold on Pratto than i am Hoz at this point. Hoz doesnt hit enough to be a DH; rather keep Santana or just rotate Doz, Perez, and others.
KC is a logical choice to dump Hoz or Myers deal. GMDM has a soft spot for players he drafted as far as bringing them back. Gonna take a good prospect haul, a 3rd team involved, and/or a lot of money coming KC.