Twins & Rays
Submitted by: Seansy
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nick Bitsko | Minors | RHP | 8.3 | 6.6 | 8.3 | 10 | ||||||
| Brent Honeywell | Minors | RHP | 2.1 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 2.6 | ||||||
| Alejandro Pie | Minors | SS | 4.6 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 5.5 | ||||||
| Drew Strotman | Minors | RHP | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 | ||||||
| Cole Wilcox | Minors | RHP | 6 | 4.8 | 6 | 7.2 |
Total Value:
23.4
Rays
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nelson Cruz | 40 | Majors | DH | High | 0.7 | 11.2 | 8.7 | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | |
| Taylor Rogers | 30 | Majors | LHRP | Low | 1.7 | 17.5 | 13 | 4.5 | 4.1 | 5 | 5.9 | |
| Cash | 12 |
Total Value:
19.5
Comments
8I think Cruz is worth way more than 2.5M but this seemed like a good break even point. Twins pay for salaries for both Cruz and Rogers. Can also sub in Robles or the Doof if that is preferred by the Rays.
I figured the Rays needed to have cash included for a trade to offset their salaries given how limited their payroll is. You can take out all the cash, Bitsko and 1 more prospect if that makes a big difference for you to repost an alternative but Cruz is DEFINITELY worth more than 2.5 lmao.
You have the Rays sending the Twins 5 top 30 prospects from an absolutely loaded System. That ain’t happening. Rays also don’t trade prospects for cash. You have cash making up the majority return in this trade. I want Cruz for the Rays and I don’t mind overpaying, but this trade is a hard no.
The Twins have traded for an injured/rehabbing pitcher before when they swapped Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. He ended up getting DFA'd to make room for other pitchers cause he has 20 control right now but Chalmers got picked up by a couple different teams on waivers and has a ton of raw talent. I think the Twins would consider him as part of a larger package when they are only giving up a rental in Cruz and 1.5 years of Rogers. It is also worth remembering that guys like Pie, Honeywell, and Strotman are all what I consider "upside lottery tickets". If you hit on them it's like winning the lottery because of their upside but most of the time they will flame out before reaching the majors or as soon as they make the jump, if they even get that far. Maybe the Rays don't want to give up that many players in a trade but the Twins traded two such guys and an older OF raking at AAA for 1.5 years of Sam Dyson back in 2019 so including Rogers AND Cruz makes more sense to me to include a few lottery tickets with a couple more higher ranking prospects. On Fangraphs they rated between 17-24 and MLB.com has them 9,10, and 18-20.
Wouldn't your definition of "upside lottery tickets" apply to all prospects? Honey and Strotman are in AAA, and Honey has MLB innings under his belt. I don't think either qualifies as a lottery ticket at this point. There is risk of course, but a lottery ticket implies there is very little chance of success. The upside with Honey is enormously high if he can stay healthy, while the floor is probably a high leverage reliever. I don't think Strotman will ever be more than a back of the rotation pitcher, and I don't mind trading him. Rays have plenty of those types of pitchers. I don't think the Rays will trade Bitsko while he's injured, but I suppose anything is possible (ie: Rays have given no indication that they think he has suffered any long term injury). Pie, on the other hand, is still very far away, and while his upside is quite high, he is a high risk prospect just because he's so far away. In any event, I don't think the Rays will have a need for Rogers. Rogers is good, I'm not suggesting otherwise, but the Rays Pen is playing very well right now and that's with several really good relievers on the shelf (e.g., Nick Anderson, Chaz Roe, Oliver Drake and rookies Honeywell and Rasmussen (who are dominating the hell out of AAA)). It's almost comical how much better the Rays' Pen is now compared to the first month of the season. The Rays face the enviable problem of having too many good relievers. The Rays should want Cruz though, and should be willing to give up more than fair value to get him.
I appreciate the feedback! I actually created a Cruz only trade for two prospects with cash included if you want to check that one out. You're right that I'm off on Strotman being an "upside" lottery ticket. Just a back end starter for him. I think I meant Bitsko and typed in Strotman in error because of Bitsko's injury and him not having pitched professionally yet. My bad on that. I would agree with Honey's upside but his floor is probably closer to middle reliever or just plain retired from baseball given his long injury history. That's why his value is so low on this website and why I consider him a lottery ticket.
I'm always up for discussing Rays trades. Anytime you want. ;) Yeah, if we're taking injury risk into this analysis, then Honey and Bitsko's floors are Out of Baseball. Honey has had 3 years on the shelf because of various elbow issues. I don't expect him to be a TOR Ace as a result. His most likely outcome is either mid-rotation starter or reliever, depending on what the Rays think will be the least stressful to his arm. Bitsko has the same floor (out of baseball) because of his recent surgery. Shoulder injuries are probably worse for pitchers than elbow injuries at this point. I don't think either will be traded by the Rays; although, if Honey asks to be traded, I suspect the Rays would honor that request. Honey shouldn't waste his remaining bullets in AAA, especially since he's carving up AAA right now. Good luck to your Twins. I imagine they have some hard decisions to make in the next 6 weeks or so.
NEWSLETTER? SURE, SIGN ME UP!
Fair enough. I don't think Bitsko is tradeable right now though. He's been on the shelf for the past 1/2 year following shoulder surgery.