Braves & Red Sox & Athletics

Submitted by: ttubravesrock

Braves

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Xander Bogaerts28MajorsSSLow267.24027.221.827.232.6
Matt Chapman28Majors3BVery low3101.733.568.254.668.281.8
Sean Manaea29MajorsSPMedium226.914.9129.61214.4
A.J. PukMinorsLHP12.610.112.615.1
Cash15

Total Value:

135

Red Sox

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Jasseel De La CruzMinorsRHP3.62.93.64.3
Drew WatersMinorsOF43.134.543.151.7

Total Value:

46.7

Athletics

NameAgeLevelP1P2AvailabilityYearsAFVSalarySurplusLowMedianHigh
Bobby Dalbec26Majors3BLow628.510.118.414.718.422.1
Max Fried27MajorsSPLow4102.240.26255.868.280.6
Dansby Swanson27MajorsSSLow230.21515.212.215.218.2
Kyle Wright25MajorsSPRHRPMedium510.73.27.567.59

Total Value:

109.3

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ttubravesrock

He was surprisingly competent at 3B in 2019 and took a step back last year (offensively and defensively). I'm willing to give him the benefit of doubt and accept that 2020 was just a weird year with a partial spring training in March then nothing for almost 3 months then a 60 game season. He'll never be Scott Rolen or Matt Chapman defensively, but somewhere in the Bregman to Moncada range would not be out of the question for him. This is basically the 'serviceable and won't kill you' category. This could just be my rose-tinted glasses though.

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grover

"Won't kill you" is acceptable with enough offense. Thanks for the info.

queensburykid

The Red Sox would love Waters, but this cost is too high. How about Jeter Down and Tristan Casas for Drew Waters instead?

ttubravesrock

Big Blockbuster deal with lots of MLB talent moving. Braves get Chapman and Bogaerts and probably have the best infield in the MLB. Athletics get Fried, who has 5 years of control and should be top 1-2 in their rotation, Dalbec who steps into the 3B role and has 6 years of control left, Swanson who should be the starting SS over Andrus, and Wright who should be (after this trade) the #5 pitcher in the A’s rotation and has 5 years of control. Red Sox pay part of Bogaerts’ salary to improve their return and get Waters and De La Cruz from the Braves. Waters immediately becomes their top OF prospect right up there with Downs and Casas for top overall prospect. De La Cruz doesn’t go to MLB just yet, but should be ready to join the Red Sox by midseason if they have any injury problems. Braves gave up their best pitcher and best prospect as well as their fan favorite Swanson, #5 starter Wright and a decent prospect for most organizations. In return, they have the scariest infield in baseball, offensively and defensively. They also get a starting pitcher to replace the two they gave up and a lefty pitching prospect who joins the competition to be the #5 starter once Soroka is back behind Soroka, Morton, Anderson, and Manea. The competition for this year would be between Puk, Wilson, and Smyly. Honestly I think all the teams involved would love and hate this trade, but tell me your thoughts.

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grover

From Oakland's perspective... this is horrible. Boston would be wise to sell High on Dalbec because if his BABIP isn't near .400 his numbers will plunge. He's a poor man's RH version of Joey Gallo and I'm not sold on him sticking at 3B. Fried is a good SP but he only has 4 years of control left and to be blunt, I think 3 years of Chapman will be more productive than 4 years of Fried. I don't get the point of including Swanson; are the A's going to try sticking Andrus at 2B after they promised him the SS job to get his OK on the trade? Lastly, Wright is exceptionally talented at turning baseballs into bleacher souvenirs and I'd much rather have him continue that practice in not Oakland. Looking at the projections, Chapman and Manaea are expected to produce roughly the same WAR as Fried et al and the positive of shaving $3 MM from the payroll is mitigated by having to risk losing a 4th, unmentioned player to make room on the 40 man roster. One point I'd like to emphasize... I think Kyle Wright is over-rated and will be a below-average SP wherever he pitches. If he proves me wrong than Yay for him but I'm OK with him never having the chance to prove me wrong while he's wearing the Green & Gold. TL;DR: Down vote.

ttubravesrock

Thanks for the detailed response. I guess I'm not as low on Dalbec and Wright as you are. As a Braves fan I'm probably higher on some of the Braves players too. How do you think this trade compares to the return the Rockies got for Arenado?

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grover

There are 163 million reasons why I wouldn't compare this deal to the Arenado trade, at all. And then he has two opt-outs, which drastically alters what the Cards would be willing to part with in trade.

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grover

Everyone has their preferences. I think Drew Waters is going to be Real Good. And I like Bryse Wilson more than I probably should. If you had included him instead of Wright... well, it wouldn't have saved the deal but it would have been a plus. I take it you don't think Austin Riley is the present and future answer at 3B?

ttubravesrock

I think Riley has claimed the starting 3B role and could become a consistent 40 HR slugger a la peak Khrush Davis. But if the Braves ever had the opportunity to acquire Chapman I think Riley would have to be included.

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grover

Let me rephrase... I've seen mixed reviews on Riley's 3B defense. Does he have the glove to play 3B if he doesn't hit 40 HR annual? Personally, I think he ends up a COF. But I'm sure you've seen him a LOT more than I have.

BigBubba

I'd also add that I doubt Oakland has a spare $15M lying around that they can send to Atlanta along with Chapman. If they had that money, they probably could have made a better run at keeping Semien. I'm curious about what you said about the A's promising Andrus the SS job to get him to agree to the trade. I hadn't heard that before, but it makes sense given he lost that job in Texas. Do you have a link to somewhere that I can read more about this?

ttubravesrock

FWIW, the $15M came from Boston.

BigBubba

Sorry, but the numbers just don't add up. Boston trades Bogaerts and Dalbec (total value = 45.6) This is the same as the value in your trade Atlanta trades Swanson, Wright, Waters, De La Cruz, and Fried (total value = 137.6) Same value as the trade Oakland trades Chapman, Puk, and Manaea (total value = 92.8) This is where the $15M difference is (92.8 vs. 107.8) You likely meant for the money to come from Boston but the simulator can get a bit weird when transferring cash in 3 team trades.

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johnbitzer

Yeah, that's our fault. Sometimes the simulator pulls from the wrong team in 3-ways. It's being fixed now.

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grover

https://theathletic.com/2372392/2021/02/07/the-as-have-a-new-shortstop-in-elvis-andrus-whats-next-on-their-list/ GM David Forst: “We brought him here to play short,” Forst said. “So, he wants to play every day at shortstop. We’re pretty used to having a guy there every day. So it’s an easy fit, it’s an easy transition for Bob (Melvin) to just write a guy in the lineup at shortstop every day. And that’s the plan.” I don't recall reading a specific quote about the A's making a pre-trade promise but Andrus was a 10-5 guy with the power to kill any trade he didn't like; he made it clear to Texas that he wasn't happy about the plan to move him off SS and he wasn't too interested in a rebuild.

BigBubba

Interesting. Thank you very much for sharing that.

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