Twins & Pirates
Submitted by: kugleram
Twins
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steven Brault | 29 | Majors | LHRP | SP | Medium | 3 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 4.7 |
Total Value:
3.9
Pirates
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availability | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Raya | Minors | RHP | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | ||||||
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | Minors | OF | 2.4 | 1.9 | 2.4 | 2.9 |
Total Value:
3.1
Comments
4@johnbitzer Can you provide clarity to Steven Brault and Chad Kuhl's value? Brault is listed as P1 to be LHRP. Would his value change if P1 is SP? Also - Kuhl has a 0 trade value - but a SP with multiple years of control along with good spin rates and metrics - would seem to have a decent value attached. Thank you!
This move seems to be close to what the Pirates are targeting. Younger upside prospects with helium potential. I feel Chad Kuhl would be a better target for the Twins - but trade value matches up closer with Brault.
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No, Brault's value would not change. We're already factoring in the probability that he'd be used as a starter. Kuhl is... not good. Our model says he's worth $2M in field value, which is a tick below what he's making in salary. For more, check out his Baseball Savant page: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/chad-kuhl-641771?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb See all that blue? That's bad. In fact, it's terrible. His xwOBAs the last two years: .369 and .379, compared to the MLB average of .321. Projection systems also see a bad pitcher: ZiPS projects 0.8 fWAR; Steamer projects 0.6. That's basically replacement-level. It's what he is. Years of control don't matter if the player is not good, especially if he's in his arb years -- if he doesn't improve, he'll get more expensive in arb terms, leading most likely to a non-tender next year.
Understood. I do believe there is more in there, however. I think pitch usage has quite a bit to do with his struggles. His slider and curveball are both plus pitches. Even though he started throwing those pitches at a higher rate in 2020 - I think those numbers will continue to increase. His sinker is a different story on the other hand. See below. He has 2 of the better pitches in baseball. Teams such as the Rays, Twins, and Blue Jays will see value in here make an impact with pitch usage changes. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/pitch-arsenal-stats?type=pitcher&pitchType=&year=2020&position=undefined&team=&min=25&sort=4&sortDir=asc