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Marlins & Twins

January 20, 2023

Marlins

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arraez 26 Majors 2B OF Medium 3 50.3 23.8 26.6 21.3 26.6 31.9
Cash Minors 30

Twins

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Chourio Minors OF 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Lopez 26 Majors SP Medium 2 52.4 13.6 38.8 31.1 38.8 46.7
Salas Minors SS 20.5 16.4 20.5 24.6
45 Comments
  1. John Bitzer

    Real trade. Ignore the cash — that’s not real; it’s just there for the simulator to accept it.

    Our model may be too low on Arraez, but there are legitimate reasons for that — he’s a great contact hitter, yes, but has little power, doesn’t walk much, is injury-prone, and has no defensive value. Before 2022, he really hadn’t done much at all, so he’s starting from a lower baseline when you consider the track record.

    Meanwhile, Lopez’s numbers are solid, and demand for decent starting pitching remains high. Even if we were low on Arraez, there’s no way to justify throwing Salas in as well, who’s also considered a future regular by most prospect evaluators. On paper, this looks like a big win for the Twins.

    • Seals Rock

      On paper, this looks pretty bad. But I think it’s pretty even when you look at the team’s circumstances.

      Lopez is good, but he isn’t a TOR starter, and the Marlins have a lot of good pitching. He’s basically a spare part. Salas is good, but he has a lot of risk, and Miami might think he’s over valued.

      Miami has good pitching, but they need a right-handed bat, and Arraez provides that. He’s a pretty good player, but he’s kind of an old school BA type guy, so analytics don’t like him. The Marlins were probably able to look past that and aren’t judging him on WAR like your model does.

      Lopez also does have an injury history, too, and I think Arraez’s walk rate is pretty good, although I may be wrong.

      • Big Bat

        When did Arraez start hitting right handed?

        The Twins killed this deal and got a lot better. Meanwhile the Marlins got a crappy defensive 2B with no power for a solid #3 SP and 2 good/very good prospects.

        • Seals Rock

          My bad, I mixed up the handedness. Either way, Arraez provides some balance to an unbalanced Marlins lineup.

          Also, don’t get me wrong, this is a great deal for the twins.

    • M P

      Yeah, I’m genuinely shocked by this trade. I thought BTV overvalued Arraez. Shows what I know. Clearly Yandy Diaz should have a $40MM trade value now. 😉

    • Jonathan McCormick

      Your site jumped the shark with this trade. The marlins won this trade easily on paper. Arraez is a stud and not striking out is currently severely undervalued. Also how can you unironically claim arraez’s value is lower due to injury and ignore that Lopez missed almost half of 2019 AND almost half of 2021 with should strains?? Get serious.

      • John Bitzer

        We’re not ignoring Lopez’s injury issues. That’s baked in too. We take it all into account. That said, we’re not doctors, and we don’t have access to the medicals, as teams do, so it’s possible Lopez’s injury risk is more severe than we can see from the outside.

      • allen hunt

        Agreed Sox, advanced metrics give pitchers a lot of value for striking a batter out but for some reason they don’t care if hitters strikeout at all time highs. Something doesn’t add up with “advanced metrics”. What actually happened on the field is more accurate than an analysts analysis

        • nathan perry

          Strikeouts are important to pitchers because the allow them to get outs without having to risk any damage on a ball in play. Just look around the league. Nearly every top of the rotation starter has above average strikeout numbers. I’m a Twins fan and I love Arraez but it doesn’t matter that players like him don’t strike out. What matters is their actual offensive contributions and though low strike outs help, low power also places a hard cap on his offensive value. Hitters can be valuable with either high or low strike out rates but for the most part pitchers with high strikeout rates have a much higher ceiling than those who rely solely on command and weak contact.

    • Andrew Maxwell

      Not sure where the evaluation that Arraez can’t take a walk comes from – his 8.7% career walk rate is a touch above league average, and pretty good for an extreme contact hitter sitting near the 100th percentile in XBA and K%. Juan Pierre or David Fletcher he is not.

      He’s also not terribly injury-prone – he lost a quarter season of PAs in ’21, but has otherwise been on the field most of his very young career. Models are mixed about his defense, with OAA seeing him trending to neutral at 2B in 2022, and DRS has been even more bullish on him over the past three seasons. Saying he “really hadn’t done much at all” before his age-25 season, could be said of most players. But he’s been above average from a rate perspective his whole short career – 20% better than average in the MLB, and 30% better last year.

      I dunno – I think John’s gloss on Arraez departs a bit from his typical straight-shooter summaries and betrays a little model defensiveness – rather pessimistic, and a little unfair to the player. I think the variance between bWAR and fWAR already shows that the jury is out on players of his ilk – bWAR liked him a lot in ’21-22, pegging him for almost 8 wins in less than two seasons.

      Another view might concede that Arraez is a recent batting champion and features a rare skillset in an offense-challenged era, and has been markedly consistent at it since age 17. His glove could improve. Meanwhile, his MiLB slash virtually mirrors his MLB slash, and he’s still quite young and cheap. There’s more in his recent history to suggest improvement than regression at this point.

      • John Bitzer

        Thanks for the feedback. That’s all fair. My main point is that Arraez’s value seems low because he really only had one above-average year of production on record, and our model requires a bit more than that to solidify it, whereas Lopez had a more established track record.

  2. Carl Weitzenkamp

    As a Twins fan this one hurts today. But that is a huge return for Arraez. As John mentioned he is special with the bat in his hands But doesn’t really fit well anywhere on the field. 8 HRs from your DH/1B is not ideal

  3. DJ dajuba

    This just seems so lopsided,

    Either there is another player (or more) going to the Marlins or there is something up with Salas that nobody knows about, (yet).

    Or,….Maybe Kim Ng just loves Arraez

    • down bad dav

      salas is a pretty risky prospect, but considerable upside. i guess marlins aren’t valuing him this highly

  4. M Berg

    In addition to Arraez’s value being too low and Lopez’s being possibly too high, it seems like not nearly enough value being placed on years of team control — Arraez’s three years versus Lopez’s two years being another big difference here.

    • John Bitzer

      That’s factored in, but there doesn’t appear to be much surplus value in that third year, because he’ll be getting paid quite a bit at that point (keep in mind the arbitration system uses an antiquated system that uses old-school stats like batting average, which means he’ll get rewarded more financially then would most players in his WAR tier). So it wasn’t much of a factor.

    • allen hunt

      Arraez is a super two arb player. His arb starting a year later will make his later payments in years 5/6 higher too

  5. Guillermo hernandez

    As long as they keep Jobu appeased, only a few more moves like this, and the Marlins can finally move to Miami.

  6. Gilbert Traub

    I agree with John’s objective evaluation … way in favor of Twins. But Marlins evaluation seems to be different. To them, Lopez may be worth nothing because they are convinced he can be replaced by Perez or even Rogers. And other teams can take advantage of that, as did Twins.

    • John Bitzer

      That’s right. Individual team decisions will always have variance based on circumstance. We have to model to the middle of the bell curve.

  7. Mitch Cerny

    Twins seemed to have done fine. They scored SP, plus 2 younger prospects. Check back in 5 years for total lopsidedness, one way or other.
    Miami wanted to add hitter and they got good ABs for sure.

    Miami was unlikely to sign Lopez in 2 years anyway. Arraez for 3 more useful for Marlins.

    Lopez for Arraez is the immediate trade.

  8. Kalki Van Loon

    $30 Million fake cash just to get the simulator to accept the trade?!!!
    Maybe Lopez was overvalued by $20+ Million.
    And Chourio with an excess value of only 0.1??? The Brewers #1 prospect! Not on this planet is his value only $0.1 Million.

    • John Bitzer

      You’re thinking of a different Chourio — the one on the Brewers (who are not involved in this trade), is indeed valued very highly.

      Overpays happen. There will always be variance among individual teams; we’re just modeling to the overall market.

  9. Ty Archy

    This was a bad trade for the Twins, but we won’t really see until a few years from now if I am right or wrong

      • Ty Archy

        I don’t believe the Twins can internally replace his bat… Don’t get me wrong they needed a SP, but Arraez was one of their main cogs and a guy that they needed in front of Correa. Kepler and Buxton haven’t shown they can play everyday… Miranda is a guy I like for them going forward. Polanco should have a better season. Outside of those guys who else do they really have?

        They needed to find another SP while keeping Arraez…

        • Jeremy Mortensen

          The Twins are counting on a healthy Kirilloff and Larnach. Both were top 100 prospects a couple years ago and showed a lot of promise throughout every level of the minors. But apparently most fans have written them off completely for missing time over the last couple of years. Obviously the Twins front office hasn’t.

      • Big Bat

        He can’t explain with any real logic. He’s a Cleveland fan as I am, but he is salty that the Twins just significantly upgraded their rotation while replacing the slap hitting, poor defensive Arraez with Polanco. The Twins did good in this deal and improved their rotation which was probably the biggest need they had. They have some young players and prospects that could start to realize their potential as well. Guys like Wallner, Kirillof, Lewis and Larnach all performed very well in the upper minors. I don’t like saying it, but the Twins got better with this deal and if they can have better luck staying healthy in 2023 then they are certainly formidable.

        • Ty Archy

          Cleveland fans should be rejoicing a guy like him is gone…

          • Big Bat

            Why? He didn’t do much against Cleveland last year and took advantage of the AL central’s crappy pitching.

    • Mike Mulligan

      This is the best bat Kim Ng can get for a top of rotation arm and two prospects?

      • Ty Archy

        He has a batting title… What else do you want from a hitter?

        • Big Bat

          Anything other than just average. Arraez has no power, can’t run, doesn’t walk much, doesn’t get on base at a high rate and plays crappy defense. “He has a batting title” as an argument is laughable.

          • Ty Archy

            You will see the Twins just got worse this season… Arraez was the catalyst in that lineup. Twins do not have any depth in their hitting to lose their best hitter. This will put them outside of the playoffs not in it. That’s my prediction…

  10. Erik Jager

    The Marlins shopping Lopez to the Red Sox and other teams, so much that did they make a trade to reduce a surplus at a disadvantage cost? The Lopez to Red Sox rumors never any sense because the Red Sox didn’t have enough expendable proscepts to offer them? Casas was their goal, but who was going to replace him for just two Lopez years?

  11. Scott Miller

    Luis doesn’t walk much, that is true. However he does see a ton of pitches. His AB’s don’t really begin until he has 2 strikes on him. His ability to run up pitch counts and give his mates a good look at the opposing hurler’s tool kit is invaluable. His absence will certainly leave a hole at the top of the Twins line-up, but I expect the plan is to plug Royce Lewis into the lead-off spot as soon as he is cleared medically.

  12. Larry Krueger

    Twins’ fans help me out. When I was trying to talk Arraez up for a trade to the Brewers I had comments from Brewer fans about Arraez’s defense. I’m also reading comments on this trade about his poor defense. I don’t have “eyes on” experience but I was looking at the defensive stats on Baseball-Reference and they seem to indicate that he’s a pretty good defensive second baseman.

    His second base fielding % for the last 2 years has been .987 and .992, both above league avearage. His defensive runs saved per 1200 innings has been impressive. His numbers in 2021 were 7 and 17 in 2022. I realize there are other fielding stats at other sites and that may tell a different story, but I have a hard time believing he can’t at least play average defense as a second baseman. Am I missing something?

    • allen hunt

      Hes known to have bad knees so the range isn’t really there and could be exploited by the shift ban and 2B being a more athletic position. Okay 3B and by all accounts a good 1B. But for some reason people believe you can’t play the corners if you never hit 30 HRs. All said about the knees he started a new workout regiment with Nelson Cruz, no joke, last offseason and then played in more games than ever and won the batting title this year so maybe it made all the difference

  13. Bill Klein

    As you can see from my sign in moniker I’m a Twins fan. Arraez was a fun hitter to watch, a glimpse of Matty Alou from the past. That said, in my wildest dreams I never would have expected a such a one sided trade for the Twins. There’s a small minority of Twins fans on the website Twins Daily who are crying in their beer over this, but there is overwhelming support in favor of the deal. I’ve been critical of the Twins F.O. for seemingly not having a plan each off season, or that their plan gets bogged down into a primary goal (singing Buxton, signing Correa etc…) and nothing can get done until that priority is determined, all the while mid-tier free agents fly off the board to other destinations. It seems to me the Marlins were infatuated in acquiring Arraez and the Twins were able to leverage that with patience to pull off what appears to be a one sided trade. Arraez hits singles. Lots of them. He doesn’t strike out and each at bat is solid. However, his defensive short comings have been well chronicled here and elsewhere and singles only get you a base at a time. Lopez is not a #1. But he was Miami’s #2 with 180 innings pitched and 174 K’s last year. Who among Luzardo, Edward Cabrera, Trevor Rogers or anyone else not named Alcantara is going to provide that workload for the Marlins? Nobody on the Twins staff came close to that last year. Quality innings pitched by starters keeps the bullpen fresh and effective. As far as Arraez’s place in the lineup, Kirilloff will replace him at 1B and Polanco is the starting 2B-man. In the minors they have Brooks Lee, Royce Lewis and the heralded “God of Walks” Eduord Julien who plays 2B, 3B and 1B and has significantly more power than Arraez. Lee, Lewis and Julien could all be up with the Twins at some point this season. Nick Gordon is another player who had a fine season last year and will take up some of the load Arraez brings to Miami. So after being critical of the twins F.O. I have to give them an “A” for an off season so far. And I don’t think they’re done. I think Max Kepler is going to traded. I’d deal him to the Yankees for Frankie Montas and give Montas all the time he needs to be ready. That would move Kenta Maeda to the bullpen where he can build himself up until he could challenge for a spot in the rotation. Maeda would deepen an already pretty decent bullpen to begin the season. Teams that pitch are always in ballgames. if you’re in it, you have a chance to win it.

    • Jeremy Mortensen

      Apparently Maeda has major incentives for either innings pitched or starts. And from what I’ve heard, the FO has promised him the chance to start this season to reach those incentives.

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