Submitted by: MacDaddy
February 19, 2023
This site deems my trade proposal as a “Major Overpay”. Maybe it is, maybe it isn’t. I think it’s fun to consider either way.
Also, this site’s saying that Ozuna, who sucks, has 3 years. He has a Club Option. I worry that the algorithm has him as being less valuable because he’s 3 years. If he can be an above average hitter, 1.6 WAR in 2/3rds of the games as ZIPS has him for 2023, then that’s not quite so bad for $32MM/2 going forward.
My hypothetical here is that Corbin Burnes says that he’s unhappy in Milwaukee and so does Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff says he’s happy to stick around if they want to show him the money right now. The Brewers decide to do a quick pivot, sign Woodruff and pair with Kyle Wright at the top of the rotation. I think highly of Wright, he’s no replacement for Burnes, but here we go.
I think the Brewers have a full house in regards to the rotation and “rotation hopefuls” even without this trade. I think Elder’s a better option to have over Houser though I wouldn’t mind Houser being the 5th for the Braves if Soroka’s not healthy. Elder works for me on the Brewers better than any of that team’s 6th through 8th starters.
Yelich is big, big money. $156MM/6 is enough to define a franchise for me. Burnes + Adames = Ozuna $, is not enough to move the needle in regards to this added $ with Yelich to the Braves. I don’t think Yelich will ever again be better than 2 WAR/season. Older and I don’t think back injuries are something a high-caliber athlete can easily come back from.
For the 2023 Braves, it’s an upgrade at SS, but much more costly. It’s a better top of SP with the same caveats. I like Elder over Houser by a bit, so it’s just more $ and shorter term there for me. And, of course, Yelich, while he is better than Ozuna, is a whole mountain range of $ and that’s at the heart of this trade idea for me.
I don’t believe the Braves would increase salary limits so much to be able to keep Fried, Burnes, or Adames, when they also have Yelich to pay. This trade would be an “all in” on ’23 & ’24. Not really a big enough window for how the team has a large number of guys already signed.
To your question about Ozuna: The model assumes the 2025 option would be declined, triggering a $1M buyout, which is why the salary column is showing $37M owed. The years of control show 3 because technically the Braves do have control for that long, as the option decision is theirs.
Mr. Bitzer, thank you for helping me with you comment and all that you do to make this site available to many of your fellow baseball fans.
Reviewing salary information on spotrac.com, I see Marcell Ozuna getting paid $16MM in 2023, $16MM in 2024 and that $1MM is the buyout in 2025. I’ve read online from various reputable news outlets that also report these same amounts. But 16 + 16 + 1 isn’t 37. Why isn’t it $33MM?
No problem. The best public source for contract data is Cot’s. Here’s a link to their page on the Braves: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league/atlanta-braves/
As you can see, Ozuna is scheduled to make $18M in each of 2023 and 2024. The total contract value was 4/65, but it was backloaded a bit such that the last two years are the pricier ones. Perhaps the fact that the AAV worked out to about $16M was why other sites revert to that.
Cots is all I use for contract. Too many issues and irregularities elsewhere.