Angels & Rays




Angels & Rays

August 20, 2023


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Baz 24 Majors SP Very low 4.3 21.4 9.2 12.1 9.7 12.1 14.5
Montgomery 23 Minors SP 6.3 5.1 6.3 7.6
Sasaki Minors OF 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.7
Suarez Minors SP 2.2 1.8 2.2 2.7
Urbina Minors RHP 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.7


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Fletcher 30 Majors UTIL SS Very low 2.3 9 15.9 -6.9 -8.3 -6.9 -5.5
Sandoval 26 Majors SP Medium 3.3 54 21.8 32.2 25.8 32.2 38.6
Walsh 29 Majors 1B Medium 2.3 11.1 11.5 -0.4 -0.5 -0.4 -0.3
  1. M P

    It’s been a bad week with Franco’s news. Rays appreciate the laugh. Thanks.

    • Chris L

      Rays sheepishly say “n-no wait” after calling the bluff full of laughter, realizing they won’t open the books to replace McClanahan and nobody else is offering or wants to help them win right now unless Caminero or Williams is included.

      • M P

        I honestly don’t know what your response means, but if you want to discuss this trade I’m game. So lets start with the Rays roster for next year. They won’t have 3 of their top 5 starting pitchers on OD, and it’s likely that only Springs will return to the rotation in 2024. They might also not have Franco. So right out of the gate the Rays will be worse in 2024 than they are in 2023. On top of that, the 2024 payroll right now is about $120-125MM, up from around $75-80MM this year. The Rays aren’t paying that. With the rotation being somewhat weak and having no depth, and the Rays possibly being without their 6 Win SS next year, my expectation is that the Rays will want to keep payroll flat from this year to next. About the only way to get there is to trade Glasnow, Margot, one of Mejia/Bethancourt, one of Aroz/B.Lowe, and about 1/2 the Pen (who are generally getting expensive by the Rays’ standards). That’s my base case for the Rays next year if Franco is suspended or banned. Fortunately, trading that much talent will result in the Rays taking back players in AAA or young MLBers who fill positions of need (e.g., pitchers and catchers). The Rays won’t be trading guys with negative trade value. They’ll be trading guys with significant trade value.

        So with all that going on, it’s pretty unlikely that the Rays will trade high upside starting pitcher Baz (making league minimum), plus 3 farther out pitchers the Rays are generally high on, to add a good (not great) starting pitcher in Sandoval, a pretty bad 1B in Walsh who is likely to get nontendered (and who plays a position of crazy excess for the Rays (e.g., Y.Diaz, I.Paredes, L.Raley, plus prospects like Aranda and Shenton who are crushing AAA this year)), and a really bad utility player signed to a long term deal the Rays want absolutely no part of, particularly with all the well-above-average infielders the Rays have in their system. This deal adds payroll to the books at a time when the Rays want to cut payroll, adds a back of the rotation pitcher to the rotation at the expense of a top 3 arm in Baz, and saddles the Rays with Fletcher who would easily be the worst player on the team. It just doesn’t make any sense for the Rays. It would be a dream trade for the Angels though.

        By the way, the Rays don’t expect other teams to help them. That’s not how baseball works, and it certainly isn’t how small market teams are treated. However, the Rays are run by a very smart front office and they’ll make the right moves. Unlike the Angels’ Front Office (and Ownership), the Rays will have a plan and they’ll execute that plan to perfection. My expectation is that they will take a minor step back in 2024 to restock the pitching staff with young talent and wait for the IL guys to return to health, and then they’ll be back to competing for a WS with or without Franco. Oh yeah, the Rays won’t be trading Caminero or Williams, certainly not for anyone with the Angels (including Trout who will have crazy dead money on his deal in the very near future).

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