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Mets & Rockies

December 17, 2020

Mets

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 29 Majors 3B Medium 6.0 144.3 199.0 -54.7 -54.7 -43.7 -32.8

Rockies

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Cano 37 Majors 2B 1B High 3.0 -1.2 40.5 -41.7 -40.5 -40.5 -40.5
Davis 27 Majors 3B 1B Medium 4.0 29.5 12.3 17.2 13.8 17.2 20.7
Familia 30 Majors RHRP Medium 1.0 0 13.0 -13 -13 -13 -10.4
Jackson Minors SS 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Meyer Minors C 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.5
7 Comments
  1. Georgia Startuplawyer

    this is a way the Rockies could 1. get a decent replacement for Arenado, and 2. not pay down any of his contract (which they seem skittish about). Davis would rake in Coors, and they could hope for bouncebacks from Familia and Cano (next year). I threw in the prospects as extra sweetener, but you could sub in any you like.

  2. John LaMantia

    Do you think Cano would accept going to the Rockies? He has a no-trade clause.

  3. John Bitzer

    Just wanted to add this comment from Craig Edwards at Fangraphs on Arenado’s valuation: “Arenado is owed $199 million over the next six years with an opt-out after next season. That’s through his age-35 season. If he were a free agent, coming off the season he just had, he’s probably getting $150 million, and probably $125 million with an opt-out after the first year. I think you would need to tack on an option year for about $20 million to get the opt-out waived, and then you are probably looking at $8M to $10 M per year for 2021-2026 going with Arenado.”

    So that’s actually lower than what we have here. If he were to get $150M in free agency, he’s worth -$49M; if the Rockies were to kick in at minimum $8M per year for six years, he’s worth -$48M.

    Granted, these are just comments in a chat, but Craig is respected and also does the trade value series for Fangraphs, so I think it’s relevant to point out that he’s in the same ballpark as we are on this point.

    • Georgia Startuplawyer

      FWIW I think that valuation is pretty accurate, but I also think NA is a little overrated due to Coors (.985 career OPS at home/.793 away).

  4. Douglas Ross

    Arenado will be the most difficult player to trade, even more than Stanton. He is one of the best third basemen in baseball, forget the value. He really doesn’t match up on a value scale. Add to that he has an opt out next year, and I don’t see him staying with the Rockies. All of this makes it very tricky to trade him, does he wave the opt out, or is it for one year.

  5. Jon White

    I don’t think the acquiring team needs to worry about the opt out. He’s not opting out, unless he’s insane. If he’s insane you don’t want him on your team anyway. It’s not like the acquiring team is giving up a ton of talent. Even the OP trade, if you were the Mets and just trying to get rid of Cano and Familia you’d certainly be willing to give up the pieces going the other way. Why would the Mets worry about the threat that Arenado might opt out?

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