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Rays & Cubs

July 2, 2022

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Contreras 30 Majors C High 0.6 18.9 5.8 13.1 10.5 13.1 15.7
Happ 27 Majors OF Medium 1.5 40.2 13.7 26.5 21.2 26.5 31.7
Hoerner 25 Majors 2B Low 3.7 37.7 16.4 21.2 17 21.2 25.5
Morel Minors 3B 4.8 3.8 4.8 5.8
Thompson 27 Majors RHRP Medium 5.7 4.1 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.6
Velazquez Minors OF 4.3 3.4 4.3 5.2

Cubs

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brujan 24 Minors 2B OF Medium 5.7 24.8 10.1 14.8 11.8 14.8 17.7
Lowe 24 Minors OF Low 5.7 25.1 5.9 19.2 15.4 19.2 23
Paredes 23 Majors 3B Low 4.7 30.6 11 19.6 15.7 19.6 23.5
Walls 25 Majors SS Medium 5.7 20.0 3.1 16.9 13.5 16.9 20.3
Yarbrough 30 Majors SP Medium 2.7 3.1 2.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.7
Cash 1
14 Comments
  1. Bennett Johnson

    In my opinion, Cubs players are routinely undervalued by this website, and I am not sure why. Here’s an example of six Cubs players having good to great years versus five Rays disasters. The total number of controllable years is the same. I added 1 mil. From the Rays to make the deal even on paper. No objective baseball fan can argue that this is an equal trade.

    • M P

      So you think trade value should be determined solely off 50 games? BTW, Paredes is having a monster year considering the number of games he’s played.

  2. Bennett Johnson

    No, I don’t think that. BTV thinks that. 50 or less. I’ve seen players on the Cubs, who are having poor seasons, like Madrigal, drop in value since the start of the season, as well they should. But Walls stays up there no matter how many 0 for 4 nights. Previously, you stated that Parades value has increased twice since the Meadows trade. Based on what, I wonder? So, I’ve answered your question. Now please answer mine. Does the trade above look fair to you?

    • M P

      LOL. I don’t think BTV values are so fickle. In the case of the Rays prospects, they are all former/current top prospects getting their first (or second) tastes of the Majors. Only Walls played a decent amount last year though and he put up 0.4 fWAR in his limited time, mostly due to his fielding. No doubt Walls, Brujan and Lowe are struggling, but none of them have come close to a full year of service time yet. Far to early to change their trade value solely because of their ML time.

      In Paredes case, I believe his value changed because he finally unlocked his power potential. When you combine his former top prospect status (ie: above average tools) with his current ML performance, there is reason for optimism and a higher trade value. Keep in mind, his value is still just a fraction of guys like Arozarena (who have a longer track record of success), so if Paredes continues to play well, his value should rise much further.

      I can’t speak to the trade value of the Cubs but those are my thoughts on the Rays’ players.

  3. Bennett Johnson

    MP–“Far to(o) early to change their trade value solely because of their ML time.” All I can say is that it must be nice to be a Rays fan. Cub’s minor leaguer Owen Caissie got off to a slow start. Boom, BTV dropped his trade value. Same for Preciado. Howard and Davis got hurt. Immediately, their BTV value plummeted.

    Parades was never more than a marginal prospect. That’s why two organizations have been willing to let him go. He’s a great thirdbaseman, but just okay in the middle infield. Didn’t check before writing this, but is he still hitting under .200? Walls is a joke up to this point. One could argue that Velazquez has better MiLB stats than Lowe.

    You may not think that BTV is fickle, but it feels like a double standard to me. However, I don’t know why John would want to jeopardize his product by playing favorites. I just think certain teams (like the Cubs) get extra scrutiny. I noticed the same disparity last year, but held my tongue. This year I am speaking out because it is so hard for me to make deals for my team. I just wish all players and all teams were held to a uniform standard.

    • John Bitzer

      Benjo, the system is not biased. We source our data from public third parties, and the system is automated, and spits out a number. To think we are going in after that to manually adjust numbers is absurd. We have neither the time nor the inclination nor any reason whatsoever to do that.

      • Bennett Johnson

        John,

        This came to a head for me, when you announced that the new numbers were in after 1/3 season. I saw that several Cubs and Cubs prospects (Madrigal, Caissie, Davis, Howard, come to mind) had had their evaluations lowered significantly, with which I had no problem. However, the needle had not bumped much, if any, for some players, like Keegan Thompson, who were doing well. To compound matters, players like Taylor Walls, who has done nothing in the majors to this point, seemed to be immune from any scrutiny whatsoever. Maybe it’s coincidental, but it was not until I complained that it would take a Justin Steele-Frank Schwindel package to acquire LaMonte Wade, Jr. that I noticed a bump in their numbers.

        Last year, I noticed a lot of activity when it came to Cubs players, as their evaluations were continually being adjusted up and down, especially as we approached the trade deadline. However, players like Robles and Kieboom sat perched high like Walls and Parades this year. Since then, their evaluations have dropped, as well they should, but it was very frustrating to me, when I attempted to make trades.

        You, sir, are the boss! I respect your right to run BTV how you see fit. I think I have made my point. I am just trying to advocate for my team, but I think we all benefit if the model is fair and accurate. No system is perfect. There will always be anomalies. If you think Walls and Parades are 4 to 10 times better than Walls and Parades, which is what your numbers would seem to reflect, then so be it. I love this website and wish you all the best of luck! I will not say another word!!

        • Bennett Johnson

          Meant to say, “. . . 4 to 10 times better than Thompson and Morel.” Sorry about that.

  4. M P

    ROFL… You’ll forgive me if I don’t feel too sorry for a big market club not getting the due it feels it deserves for its System. Us Rays fans have to support a team that gets by on a payroll of 30-50% of the payroll of the rest of the league, and national broadcasters routinely put up the wrong pictures for our players or reference the wrong players when talking about our club, AND when they are notified of their mistake they say “it doesn’t matter, no one cares about the Rays.”

    But getting to your points.

    ***Paredes – Is currently hitting .246/.301/.615 (161 wRC+) with 13 HRs over 40 games in 2022. He’s been the Rays’ best player for the past month and it’s not particularly close. Paredes was also a top 10 prospect in the Tigers system all of his years, and was their #4 prospect at the end of 2019 (according to MLB.com).

    *** Caissie/Preciado – Both are 19 year old prospects having (1) a decent enough year (Caissie) and (2) a shit year (Preciado) . I suspect John reduced his trade value for both because the prospect rankings on which his value is based lowered their ranking on these guys. That’s not John’s fault. He bases his trade value on the opinions of the ranking services.

    *** Injuries – I don’t know what Cubs players are injured or what their injuries are, but players’ values drop when they suffer serious injuries. That’s life. You think Wilcox is worth around $6MM if he comes back from TJS throwing like he was before his injury? Hell no. He’d be worth around what Bradley is worth and sitting in the middle of the Top 100 prospect rankings.

    • Bennett Johnson

      MP,

      You disappoint me. In other words, as long as the evaluations are skewed in your favor, you’re all for it. This isn’t about small market vs big market teams. It’s about basic fairness and the people who participate on this website having equal opportunity to negotiate for their clubs. You know I’m correct about the proposed trade above being totally lopsided, but you are too stubborn or whatever to admit it. In real life, it would be laughable.

      Like Bill James used to say (I’m paraphrasing) every team has its top 10 prospects, but that doesn’t mean that all the ten lists are equal. To my knowledge, Paredes has never been a top 100 prospect. I’m glad to see he has brought his average over the Mendoza line, but a lifetime .222 average does not equate to a 19.6 evaluation in my books. He has 11 homers this year, not 13, per last check of Baseball reference. Perhaps he got 2 today. Contrast that with Morel, who is a stud defensively at multiple positions. 8 homers and .281 on the season, with a BTV evaluation of 4.8.

      All the Cubs players above are raking, but it is not reflected in their evaluations, imo. Simple as that.

      • M P

        Yes, Paredes got 2 HRs on Saturday. Yes, my definition of top prospect includes more than the top 100 lists. No, I don’t think a “lifetime” average for a young player with less than 1 year of service time suggests a ceiling of any kind. Paredes looks like a GD stud right now.

        I really don’t think there are any system biases employed by BTV. After all, many of their inputs are third party values.

        How’s this…. Instead of my trying to explain a system I have nothing to do with, I’ll tell you that Brujan’s value has already been more than halved this year and J.Lowe lost a third of his value a week or so ago. I’m sure that’s because of their ML struggles this year. So the industry (and BTV) are factoring their struggles into their rankings/values.

        • Bennett Johnson

          Morel was signed for $800 grand. So, Cubs saw something. He is listed at 145 lbs. by Fangraphs, but weighs closer to 200 lbs. .945 OPS this year in minors. Set Cubs record for most games reaching base by a rookie. Has the highest velocity throw by an MLB OF this year. Plays CF,2B, 3B, SS. So, you have to ignore all that, plus his .282 average and 8 homers, to give him an evaluation 75% lower than Parades, which BTV has done. Sounds like Parades is coming on. So is Morel. Right now Morel has better numbers. I don’t know how to make my point any more clear. If you want to cross compare Morel with Walls the evaluations look even more Ridiculous.

          Maybe you don’t care, but check out Keegan Thompson’s stats. Then look at other pitchers with 2.1 evaluations and get back to me. Cubs players are getting hosed, imo, and I don’t know why.

          • M P

            I think we’ve beat this horse to death. I feel for you but I think you need to keep some perspective. BTV valuations are always going to be a little behind the times with internal valuations because they rely on third party rankings. Take Mason Montgomery, a High A pitcher destroying the league this year (after a dominant 2021 in rookie ball). MLB just said he was the Rays’ best prospect from the draft class that includes Carson Williams ($16.3MM valuation). Eventually, Monty’s $5 MM valuation is going to catch up to reality, but right now everyone keeps trying to steal him from the Rays at a middling valuation. I comment on the trades and move on. Best you can do.

      • M P

        I don’t know anything about Morel except that Fangraph’s gives him a 30/35 hit tool (in comparison to Paredes’ 55/60). On that basis alone, I know which prospect I’d prefer. A 30/35 hit tool is downright pathetic. Even Walls has a 50/60 grade.

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