Each week, we update the values on our site. As we inch closer to the trade deadline, we’ll monitor the changes in value, both for obvious trade candidates and others that could be. This is an ongoing series.

Notable movers this week (all values below are in $Ms) with trendline arrows indicating whether their value is improving or declining:

 

Prominent trade candidates:

Joe Ryan

• Field value: 81.5
• Salary owed: 13.2
• Surplus: 68.3 (--)

With the Twins sputtering, trade interest in Ryan is growing. The 29-year-old righty, originally acquired from the Rays in the Nelson Cruz trade, has established himself as a mid-rotation arm and is currently enjoying the best season of his career. He comes with two additional years of cheap team control, as his $3M arbitration salary in 2025 sets a low baseline. The biggest question is whether the Twins would entertain a trade. They're currently attempting to remain competitive while being mindful of budget ahead of a potential sale. They’ll likely need to be blown away, even on top of Ryan’s lofty surplus value, and they’ll prioritize MLB or near-MLB talent in return.

 

Taj Bradley

• Field value: 80.0
• Salary owed: 37.4
• Surplus: 42.6 (⬇️)

In Bradley, teams would be hoping to acquire the next Joe Ryan, but prior to the breakout. According to reports, the Rays are open to moving the 24-year-old, who’s been fine in his third MLB season but hasn’t quite put it together. His age, team control and prospect pedigree are driving his high surplus value. He’s not a guaranteed impact player for 2025, meaning win-now teams like the Dodgers might not be as interested here. But there’s potential for a really interesting trade here with a bubble team or even a seller, possibly a team like the Guardians, Orioles or Rangers. The bigger question may be what the Rays are even looking for in return - their biggest needs are in the outfield and at catcher, and at first glance there aren’t obvious trade candidates within Bradley’s value range at those positions. Perhaps they can pry away a Steven Kwan or Colton Cowser?

 

Zac Gallen

• Field value: 9.4
• Salary owed: 5.6
• Surplus: 3.8 (⬆️)

Gallen is the third Diamondbacks rental to feature in this series, and he might be the highest profile of the bunch. He was once seen as Arizona’s ace, but a sharp decline over the last two years has left him at replacement level so far in 2025. It’s been an inconsistent year, alternating dominant starts with meltdowns, and the result has been a 5.40 ERA. He hasn’t been quite as much of a mess as Sandy Alcantara (whom, funny enough, Gallen was once traded to Miami alongside), and as a rental Gallen’s acquisition price will be much lower, but there’s still risk involved. The Diamondbacks could bluff a Qualifying Offer play, but Gallen would need a substantial second-half rebound to even consider declining. It seems more likely that he’ll be moved in the coming weeks.

 

Willi Castro

• Field value: 6.9
• Salary owed: 2.6
• Surplus: 4.2 (--)

Castro has quietly been a very productive player for the Twins over the last few years. His current 123 wRC+ would be a career-high, and he can play all over the diamond, making him an easy fit for any contender. He’s a rental, so Minnesota can’t expect a haul here, but multiple teams should be interested and they should get something interesting in return.

 

Other notables:

Jhoan Duran

• Field value: 37.5
• Salary owed: 18.2
• Surplus: 19.3

Similar to Ryan, there’s no urgency to move Duran, but the fungibility of relievers makes it something the Twins should at least consider. They’d get a solid package in return, and every contender could use a lockdown late-inning arm. Duran has two years of arbitration, though they’ll get a bit more expensive as he continues to pitch well and rack up saves. Minnesota’s bullpen is deep and it could easily promote Griffin Jax or Louie Varland to the closer’s role without missing a beat. Duran is well-liked, but it’s possible the Twins get an offer they can’t refuse.

 

Taylor Ward

• Field value: 24.9
• Salary owed: 15.0
• Surplus: 10.0

Ward has been a trade candidate for the last few years, but perhaps after yet another playoff miss for the Angels, they’ll finally pull the trigger on a deal. Ward is a capable corner outfielder who usually finishes around 2-3 fWAR on the season. He’s nothing flashy, but he’s exactly the type of player a contender needs to fill out a lineup. He’s under team control through 2026. The Rays, Padres or Giants might make sense here.

 

Sean Murphy

• Field value: 75.9
• Salary owed: 66.2
• Surplus: 9.7

Drake Baldwin’s breakout initially led to speculation that Murphy may be on the block, especially given his struggles to stay healthy and perform in 2024. But he’s now back on track, pushing his surplus value positive. The Braves have stated that they won’t be trading anyone under control beyond 2025, but if they believe in Baldwin as their main catcher going forward, this may be the time to move Murphy while they can. Murphy can be excellent on both sides of the ball, but he’s about to turn 31 and is owed more than $66M through his age 34 season (assuming his 2029 club option is exercised). There’s risk in that type of investment in an aging catcher, and as Atlanta looks to right the ship after a disappointing season, it may prefer to reallocate its payroll elsewhere on the roster.

 

Ryan Helsley

• Field value: 6.1
• Salary owed: 3.4
• Surplus: 2.7

At 27.9% playoff odds according to FanGraphs, the Cardinals are a true bubble team. Typically, a team in this position may look to thread the needle by trading rental players, particularly in the bullpen. On paper, Helsley is a great candidate for this, and given his elite run from 2022-24 he’ll have many suitors. But he’s taken a significant step back across the board in 2025, and the Cardinals were previously interested in extending the righthander. Teams will call, but don’t be surprised if Helsley stays put.

 

How Far Will the Guardians Go?

At 46-49, FanGraphs places the Guardians’ playoff odds at just 10.7%. That’s less than half the playoff odds of their division rival Twins, who hold only a half-game lead over Cleveland; projection systems heavily favor the former’s roster over the latter.

If the Guardians do sell, it isn’t likely to be a fire sale. Despite the Tigers’ improvements, the AL Central still appears to be wide open for the foreseeable future. This would likely be more of a retool, but none of Cleveland’s rentals are all that enticing; teams won’t be lining up for Carlos Santana (-$2.0M), Paul Sewald (-$1.4M) and Jakob Junis (-$1.0M).

But if the Guardians expand their horizons, relief aces Emmanuel Clase ($32.7M) and/or Cade Smith ($28.7M) would return a haul. Clase is locked into an affordable deal through 2028, the final two years of which are club options, while Smith is under team control through 2029. Either player would comfortably slot into any team’s bullpen and payroll; if made available, they’d be in high demand, and could bring back the type of young hitter the Guardians are currently missing.

Could Cleveland dangle Steven Kwan ($47.9M)? He’s a talented player, though his limits are apparent: he’s historically graded well defensively in left field, but he doesn’t have the range or wheels for center, and he’s a fantastic contact hitter but one who will likely never hit for much power. Kwan has two years of arbitration remaining, so there’s no rush to trade him, but he could be the type of player a team would rather trade too early than too late. As fun and as valuable as he is now, if he loses a step in the outfield or his offensive production drops by even 10%, he could look a lot more like a fourth outfielder than an All-Star. A trade doesn’t seem too likely right now, but Cleveland is forward-thinking, and likely already has the possibility on its mind.

 

Resurgent Red Sox

The Rafael Devers trade had many expecting the Red Sox to sell at the deadline, but suddenly they’re baseball’s hottest team, and barring a slump after the All-Star break they’ll almost certainly be buying.

First base remains the most obvious hole, as Boston still has yet to find a capable replacement for the injured Triston Casas. The rotation is looking thin - especially given Walker Buehler’s struggles - and another quality relief arm wouldn’t hurt.

The Red Sox won’t be dealing from their Big Three (Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell). But their farm remains deep even after graduating those three mega-talents, as they currently have 12 prospects worth at least $9.0M according to our model. That’s plenty of firepower to add quality rentals at each position of need without putting a dent in the farm’s health overall.

But on the big league roster, there have been plenty of rumors surrounding Jarren Duran’s ($44.1M) future. Anthony’s promotion, Cedanne Rafaela’s breakout and Masataka Yoshida’s return from the injured list have led to an outfield logjam. The 2024 season was a career year for Duran, but his bat has taken a notable step back in 2025, and he’s best suited for a corner outfield spot. He’s a valuable player but perhaps not the superstar he looked like he might become. That being said, he has three years of arbitration remaining as a Super Two player, and his combination of talent, track record and team control give him plenty of surplus value. If the Red Sox want to get aggressive, they could really make a splash for a controllable mid-rotation starting pitcher by dangling Duran alongside one or more of their talented prospects.