The Minnesota Twins were the most active team during this year's trade deadline, executing nine trades and parting ways with 11 players from their 26-man roster. The trades included a diverse range of players, from impending free agents to pre-arbitration talent and everything in between. 

Among the most significant transactions was the deal that sent Carlos Correa, along with $33 million of the $104 million remaining on his contract, back to the Houston Astros. Beyond just the significance of sending a star back to his original stomping grounds, the substantial shedding of $71 million in salary seemed a clear indicator that the Pohlad family, the franchise’s ownership group for the last 40 years, was preparing the team for its long-rumored sale.

That was until the Pohlads made the big announcement on August 13th that, after courting potential buyers for over a year, they were pulling the team off the market. Instead, they opted to bring in two new minority investors while retaining majority control of the franchise.

This decision was a brutal blow to Twins fans, who had hoped that fresh ownership would finally provide the financial investment the team deserves. While it might be tempting for them to believe that the new minority investments will lead to an influx of cash for the team, the reality is more likely that these new shareholders will prioritize their own financial return on investment, suppressing payroll. 

 

Was It a Full Teardown? No

The way the trade deadline unfolded, one might expect the Twins to embark on a full rebuild. However, that hasn't been the Pohlad family's approach in recent years, at times confusingly so. Although the team has no meaningful postseason success to speak of in the present era, they have rarely bottomed out.

Analyzing the returns from their deadline reveals a concerted effort to add players with big league experience when possible, including Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and James Outman. This would seem to signal that the Twins don’t plan to stay down for long and are attempting to rebuild on the fly again.

With Byron Buxton declaring himself a Twin for life, promising rookie Luke Keaschall on the rise, and top prospects like Walker Jenkins and Emmanuel Rodriguez on the horizon alongside several intriguing options for the pitching rotation, a swift turnaround may actually be somewhat realistic this time around.

 

The Three Big Remaining Trade Candidates

In this context, it will be intriguing to see what the Twins do with the three remaining veterans in their starting rotation: Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez, and Bailey Ober. Each of these players is under team control through 2027 and will be entering their age-30 seasons next year. With a wealth of younger, more cost-effective options available and several holes in their roster, the Twins are likely to explore trades involving this trio. Each one presents a distinct set of circumstances that could influence the team's strategy.

 

Joe Ryan: Median Surplus Value: 62.6

Trading Ryan -- the undisputed ace of this year’s Twins staff -- would represent the biggest step back for the current Twins roster, but would also deliver the biggest trade package in return. With two seasons of team control remaining and the excellent platform season he’s having, a Ryan trade could look similar to last winter’s trade of Garrett Crochet to Boston. The Red Sox surrendered two top-100 prospects in that deal, and the Twins are well within their rights to demand the same for Ryan. 

The Red Sox themselves look to be one of Ryan’s most aggressive trade suitors and could dangle more top-100 types like Franklin Arias, recently promoted Jhostynxon Garcia, or fast-rising flamethrower Payton Tolle to headline the deal. Another interesting strategy for the Twins, if their goal is to be competitive right away, would be targeting Jarren Duran as a method of redistributing some immediate production from the rotation to the lineup, although that’s probably not the course of action I would recommend.

 

Pablo Lopez: Median Surplus Value: 19.3

Lopez, one of only two remaining players on the team with a significant financial guarantee extending beyond this season, would presumably be the rotation member the Twins would most like to move. However, his shoulder injury, which has sidelined him since early June, complicates his candidacy. The injury, coupled with the $40+ million he is guaranteed over the next two seasons, will suppress his trade value quite a bit relative to Ryan, despite a track record of performance that compares favorably.

A potential trade for Lopez might resemble last year’s deal involving Jesus Luzardo. Like Lopez, Luzardo only pitched around 60 innings in his platform year. He was younger and less expensive than Lopez will be, but with a less consistent track record of success. The Marlins landed a top-100 prospect from the Phillies in that deal, but one further from the majors, and who has since fallen off most lists.

The Twins should be able to fetch a similar return for Lopez from a pitching-needy team that can afford his contract, like the Mets. A player like Jacob Reimer could be a centerpiece in a prospect package for Lopez, or, if the teams wanted to be more creative, a trade involving one of the Mets’ infield surplus of Mark Vientos, Brett Baty, or Ronny Mauricio could be appealing to both sides.

 

Bailey Ober: Median Surplus Value: 18.9

Ober was the most difficult trade candidate of the trio to comp because, frankly, pitchers in Ober’s situation aren’t often dealt. Like Lopez, Ober has dealt with injury this season, but unlike Lopez, Ober didn’t perform well when he pitched.

After suffering a left hip impingement during a pickoff attempt in spring training, Ober struggled to the tune of a 5.28 ERA through the month of June before finally hitting the IL to get himself back on track.

He’s been better since returning, but still hasn’t flashed the frontline potential he did at times in 2024. He’s entering his second year of arbitration on a weak platform year, making him an inexpensive source of innings for the Twins next year at the very least. My guess is that Minnesota will hold onto Ober and see if they can demonstrate his health and effectiveness next season before considering a trade.

 

The recommendation

If I were the decision maker in Minnesota, I would take the nuclear option and trade both Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez this offseason. I’m just not all that compelled by the Twins’ position player group, at least in the near term. The bullpen, after trading away five of its top contributors at the deadline, will also need to undergo a rebuilding period before it is truly competitive again.

In contrast, though, I’m still quite intrigued by a young remaining Twins rotation including Ober, Zebby Matthews, Bradley, Abel, and Simeon Woods Richardson, all of whom possess major league experience. They also have a supporting cast of Kendry Rojas, Connor Prielipp, Marco Raya, and Andrew Morris in the upper minors.

An influx of young position player talent facilitated by trades of Ryan and Lopez – particularly if one of the returning players can become a mainstay in the infield – may not make the Twins competitive again immediately, but could make them a compelling watch as a frisky young team with the ability to grow into a competitor soon.

Sadly, this strategy may also align with the financial interests of the Twins' new minority investors, which isn’t what anyone wants. It’s hard, though, to envision a scenario where even the most healthy, productive seasons from all three veteran pitchers could propel this group of position players beyond the ALDS for the first time in nearly 35 years. The Twins need to reshuffle their deck, and without the big financial investment fans hoped a new ownership group would bring, making bold trades is the only way to do it.