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Guardians & Diamondbacks

September 13, 2022

Guardians

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
De Los Santos Minors 3B 8.5 6.8 8.5 10.2
Kelly 27 Majors C Low 2 18.2 11.3 6.9 5.5 6.9 8.3
Lawlar Minors SS 45.9 36.7 45.9 55.1
Pfaadt Minors RHP 16.5 13.2 16.5 19.8

Diamondbacks

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arias Minors SS 7.8 6.2 7.8 9.4
Bieber 27 Majors SP Very low 2 81.8 24 57.8 46.2 57.8 69.3
Rosario 26 Majors SS OF Medium 1 12.7 7.4 5.3 4.2 5.3 6.3
3 Comments
  1. Eli Kov

    Interesting deal proposal.. from a couple of perspectives…

    a. Extension negotiations between the Guardians/Bieber fail miserably (btw.. pretty unlikely considering the negotiators)…
    b. the primary return to the Guardians isn’t staying.. i.e… Lawler will be immediately flipped to a DBax “in division” rival..

    From a general/overview.. Carson Kelly is the only “known” quantity going to Cleveland.. Not a great return for a TOR SP, but the additions to the deal have significant value and are useful/can fill gaps in the talent base for the Guardians.. The return to the DBax essentially fills the void at SS, both now and into the future for what is being moved away.. especially if you consider the loss of Carson Kelly no big thing (and this is true)..

    The values placed on players in the BTV database are created for a “moment in time”.. The truth of the matter, and I’m sure John Bitzer can confirm, the values stated are based on a trajectory charting.. In the case of Carson Kelly’s value, his trajectory is clearly going down.. Tomorrow his value might be closer to his lower 5.5 or even lower.. Bieber’s trajectory is similar.. that is, his trajectory is also in decline.. To create a database that reflects every player, every moment of every at bat on every day.. would be doable.. but.. a lot more staff would be needed to gather and massage the data.. Not today.. pehaps, but, some time in the future..

    A few changes..

    No to De los Santos replaced with Walker… From the DBax side of the deal, they only control Walker through the 2024 year.. The Guardians spot for de los Santos would be 1B & he’d be fine there.. that makes de los Santos still two years away from being ready.. more in line with the DBax competitive window.. Christian Walker, however, would be a more than fine replacement and would “juice” the deal (i.e. make it more likely to happen). His current BTV scoring is probably lower than it will be tomorrow or the next day..

    Lawler..wouldn’t stay with either team.. The DBax sacrificing their future SS to obtain a TOR SP would be a hard pill to swallow.. The Guardians flipping Lawler would ALSO be a hard pill to swallow.. The combination of Amed Rosario for now and Gabriel Arias as soon as 2023 represents the “spoon full of sugar” that helps the DBax swallow that medicine.. A prearranged deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers, who watch Trea Turner move on, for Diego Cartaya & Bobby Miller represents the spoon full of sugar for the Guardians..

    There could be several other iterations to this deal.. for example.. instead of the Dodgers.. the Guardians could make a deal with the Oakland A’s involving Sean Murphy?.

    It’s an interesting foundation to build a deal.. considering the two primary movers in the deal are an indisputable TOR SP and an elite prospect SS…

    Thoughts?

    • Ty Archy

      Cleveland doesn’t get enough for what they are giving up…

  2. Big Bat

    This doesn’t work for Cleveland. I’d guess Arias and Rosario are easily available, but Bieber will not be traded for such a low level package.

    DLS is pretty much like Noel. Lots of power and lots of strikeouts.

    Where will they play Lawler? His skillset is well covered in Cleveland’s system.

    Kelly would be a nice backup for Naylor, but they’re more likely just to agree with Maile in arbitration as opposed to agreeing to anything like this.

    Cleveland’s reload/rebuild/retool is almost over as they are likely to make the playoffs this season. Going forward looks even more promising as guys like Valera, Rocchio, Williams, Bibee, Naylor, Espino, Brennan and numerous others all find their way to Cleveland. We’re talking about a top 3 farm system here while the big league club is already pretty darn good. They need a RHH 1B as I’ve stated before, but even that won’t last long if Noel continues to destroy baseballs.

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