Padres & Mariners




Padres & Mariners

July 1, 2019


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Leake 31 Majors SP High 1.5 24.2 21.5 2.7 2.7 3.7 4.7


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Marcano Minors 2B 12.1 9.7 12.1 14.5
Myers 28 Majors OF High 3.5 47.48 71.25 -23.8 -28.5 -23.8 -19
Potts Minors 3B 10.8 8.6 10.8 13
Reed Minors OF 4.1 3.3 4.1 4.9
  1. Are those prospects worth around 47 million dollars which is the difference between the contracts of Leake and Myers. I don’t think that they are. I think the Padres are stuck with Wil Myers.

    • John Bitzer

      It’s not just about the difference in salaries. You also have to factor in the difference in expected performance between those two (what we call the AFV), and on that measure, Myers projects to make up a big chunk of that with his on-field performance. So I think it’s a fair deal in valuation terms; but I’m not sure Myers fits the M’s needs at the moment.

      • Myers is currently batting .219 and has a negative WAR. Perhaps, I look at the trades on here from the perspective of a small market team as I am an Indian fan. I just don’t see Myers having any value especially with his high salary.

        Seattle has an outfield of Domingo Santana, Mallex Smith, and Mitch Hanniger with Daniel Vogelbach at 1st base so I don’t see a spot for him anyway.

        • John Bitzer

          Yes, Myers is having a bad year. That’s already baked into the numbers. But we (and MLB teams) have to take a wider view and look at a player’s track record as well to get a read on what he’s expected to do going forward. If he continues to struggle, the AFV (and trade value) will continue to go down. But there’s also a possibility (again, based on his success in the past) that he will revert to his mean and be a better performer than he’s showing now.

          In any case, we agree that Seattle probably doesn’t need him, and San Diego probably can’t trade him now because he’s slumping. They’re more likely to move him in the offseason, I would think, when teams are less concerned about immediate performance.

          • Mark Cullen

            Mariners don’t need Leake either (though admittedly there’s more room for him). This is a gamble for the Ms that they can turn Myers into something worth trading in 12-18 months for more than they’d get by letting Leake’s contract expire.

            Padres need pitching and hate Myers. At some point they’ve got to do something with all these prospects before rule 5 kicks in. Reed in 2019. Potts & Marcano in 2020. Potts and Marcano play 3B and SS/2B. They’re blocked, so putting them on the 40-man is slightly pointless in the long run.

  2. I understand you point, but I would be afraid that Seattle would then be stuck with that contract with little chance to get rid of it. His contract will be harder to get rid of than Cano’s was. I am just not very high on Myers.

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