Padres & Red Sox




Padres & Red Sox

November 24, 2022


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Bleis Minors OF 13.6 10.9 13.6 16.3
Downs 23 Majors 2B High 6 1.8 0.7 1.1 0.9 1.1 1.3
Hernandez Minors C 2.5 2 2.5 3
McGuire 27 Majors C Medium 3 13 6.5 6.5 5.2 6.5 7.8

Red Sox

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Kim 27 Majors 2B OF Low 2 40.4 22 18.4 14.7 18.4 22.1
Nola 32 Majors C 1B Medium 3 10.7 5.7 5 4 5 6
  1. Bill Wellman

    The Padres shed the salary of Ha-seong Kim as Tatis returns, the Red Sox plug the hole created by Bogaerts’s (likely) departure with Kim, Nola becomes lead catcher for Boston while the younger McGuire goes to San Diego, and the Padres get high-rated Bleis (as well as power-hitting Hernandez and the versatile Downs) to balance the deal.

    • Keith Lyons

      I would like nothing better than Kim to Boston (should have been here in first place) but this is not happening. Tatis is playing OF and Kim is staying at SS. If you don’t think his defense has something to do with Padres making it to NLCS and that he stays where he is I would disagree.

      Boston didn’t resign Hernandez for a year only to turn around and trade him. They believe he’s their answer in CF when healthy and he played better at end of year.

      I also recall reading other GM’s saying they want Bleis but believe there in no way Boston is letting him go. Rafaela is more
      Likely to move.

      So while I like Kim finding a way here I don’t see this one working but that’s just me 😉

      • Bill Wellman

        Thanks for the feedback!

        A few points:

        1) San Diego has, essentially, four shortstops: Tatis, Cronenworth, Machado, and Kim. They also have Matthew Batten ready to go as a utility infielder, Kim’s true role. It would be cheaper to acquire offense from a free agent 1B: Jose Abreu would fit the “win now” goal, or Trey Mancini could fill the role on both competing and rebuilding teams. Kim will make $7.5 million average for two more years; Nola has three arb years, with his first, at age 32, costing about $2.2 million. That $10 million or so would cover much of the salary of a good number five hitter at first base.

        2) Kim had an SLG almost 100 points higher on the road last year, with over two-thirds of his doubles and RBIs coming away from PETCO. San Diego is a pitcher’s park, but this is extreme. He’s more valuable to another team.

        3) The Hernandez is 24-year-old catcher Ronaldo Hernandez, not Kike Hernandez. Ronaldo has two ++ skills: hitting HR and throwing out baserunners. Those are important skills for a catcher, but the Red Sox want higher OBP and value pitcher-catcher teamwork more, leaving Ronaldo available for this deal. The Padres would get all of his prime years–he’s a big part of the package.

        4) Bleis certainly is valuable. So is Kim. This is, in essence, a Kim-for-Bleis trade, structured to free the payroll the Padres need to contend seriously while they have Juan Soto and to ensure a better core for rebuilding. And the trade is balanced…I don’t make up the numbers.

        For what it’s worth, this suggestion was inspired by Boston’s acquisition of Hoy Park. The Red Sox don’t need Park, but they could really use Kim if Bogaerts leaves, and Park would be an English-proficient translator (he’s fluent, IIRC) and friend.

  2. Keith Lyons

    Sorry. Missed the right Hernandez. I’m not a big fan of Nola and giving up McGuire and Hernandez further dilutes Boston’s catching depth which is rail thin to begin with. If Bogaerts departs Kim would be my number one choice in trade to replace him and I’ve always thought he was built for Fenway and I love his glove. SD short stop depth: Machado and Cronenworth would be only emergency Ss in my opinion. Tatis from everything I read is destined for OF but who knows. If this is truly a Bleis for Kim move and a big risk on Boston’s part of he ends up being what they think he will be I just can’t see them doing it. I wonder if a Rafaela for Kim swap would work? I’m certainly excited about Rafaela’s defense in CF later this year and beyond. Especially when Kike moves on. If you really think Kim is a utility and Rafaela is a floor of super Utility then why not with those two as focal points?

    • Bill Wellman

      Well, as I wrote before, per the values on this site the trade is balanced.

      On Red Sox catching depth, Stephan Scott hit .238/.375/.403 in AA and a whopping .298/.394/.614 in AZFL this autumn. That high OBP–plus his ability to play 1B/LF (and RF on the road) –makes him a better fit for Boston then Hernandez. McGuire has high trade value right now, but Nola is probably better, if slightly more expensive. (The dollars are a big driver for San Diego here.)

      I considered trying to work Dalbec into the trade instead of R. Hernandez, but I suspect that the Padres would want the catcher, not the 1B/3B.

      On SS skills, let’s check career UZR/150:

      Machado -4.8 (probably around -10.0 were he to play now, looking at the rate of decline at 3B)
      Tatis -7.1 (he’s -7.2 as an outfielder)
      Cronenworth 0.0
      Kim +4.6

      Machado isn’t a best choice at SS, but he can still play the position. Tatis is as good at SS as he is in OF, and outfielders are cheaper to acquire. Cronenworth would do fine at SS, and 2B are cheaper than SS, too. The Padres would still have two good starting SS and Machado as a reserve.

      Rafaela for Kim? Try making it work! I’ll be watching! 🙂

      • Keith Lyons

        I’ll give up Bleis for Kim. May bite us in the ass but let’s go! Happy thanksgiving!

  3. Keith Lyons

    JHB. Very cool that Park and Kim were the middle infield in HS. Interesting. Thanks for sharing.

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