Submitted by: JHB
December 26, 2022
Astros
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availablility | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arroyo | 27 | Majors | 3B | 2B | Medium | 2 | 1.6 | 2.2 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.5 |
| Encarnacion | Minors | RHP | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.4 | ||||||
| Seabold | Minors | RHP | 2.9 | 2.3 | 2.9 | 3.5 |
The Red Sox need a guy who can really play SS. Dubon isn’t above replacement level, but he can play SS and he has one of the best arms in MLB at that position. He’d be a spot starter and, much more often, a late-inning defensive replacement. He’s also a good CF/RF guy, but his bat is more disappointing at those positions.
The Red Sox would also get Clifford, the Astros eighth-best prospect, who projects to become a decent right fielder. Boston needs that, and the Astros have four better OF prospects–Clifford is superfluous.
The Astros would get Arroyo, taking Dubon’s role. Arroyo is a better batter and second baseman. Also, Connor Seabold is MLB-ready with one option year remaining. He’d be the up-and-down guy living at AAA and showing up for spot starts. He’d have a future as a long reliever or 4/5 starter.
For the future, the Astros would also get Encarnacion, who looks to be headed to a role as an organizational player for a contender or a back-end starter for a rebuilding MLB team.
As this trade drops to 21st on the Red Sox board, a few thoughts.
In a small sample, the results are two-to-one against the trade. That’s pretty common for hypothetical trades. But the absence of interest suggests folks here would rather speculate what team would be charitable enough to take Boston’s number one starter and walk year future HoF candidate…and that makes sense. This is a bit-piece trade proposal.
But it solves four separate issues:
1) It gives the Red Sox a SS option with an arm WAY better than Trevor Story’s;
2) It gives the Astros a better-hitting utility infielder who’s better defensively except at SS;
3) It gives the Red Sox a natural RF prospect, something they lack; and
4) It gives the Astros 100 more MLB-quality IP each year, necessary to protect their great starting rotation.
This trade isn’t as fun as trading stars, but I see it as helping both teams.