Submitted by: GMakd
February 12, 2023
Orioles: How does a team get away with nabbing a perennial cy young cannidate in his prime without giving up their top 3 prospects. Just have an uber-elite farm system where your 4th ranked prospect would be #1 for half of the teams in the league. Burnes would be the acquisition that vaults the O’s completely out of their rebuild and into the playoffs. This is the type of move fans were hoping for when GM Mike Elias said “its lift-off from here”. Burnes slots at the top of this rotation with Grayson Rodriguez slotted in behind him and Irvin, Bradish, Kremer, and depth behind those two. Brosseu helps give the O’s depth in the infield and evens out this trade even more. And even after the haul they are giving up, the O’s will still have a top 5 farm system. Mark Elias is finally seeing the fruits of his labor and he looks like a genius right now. The Baltimore fanbase trust him, and they would adore him if he pulled of this trade.
Brewers: Another year of ace rumors is forthcoming as I don’t see the Brewers making the playoffs. Burnes is the type of player you never want to trade, but there is a chance the Brewers either don’t pay him a new contract or he wants to leave in fr agency. The return would be MASSIVE.
Lets start with Colton Cowser. Yes, yes before you start spamming the comments saying the Brewers don’t need another outfield prospect and aren’t looking for one, I KNOW. But you can use Joey Wiemer and Garrett Mitchell as trade bait or very good depth when an outfield of Cowser, Frelick, and Chourio takes the league by storm. Cowser is rated #40 by MLB Pipeline but in my personal rankings I have him at #30. I like to call him, Grayson Rodriguez, Gunnar Henderson, and Jackson Holliday the “big 4”. Like I said earlier, he could be the #1 prospect for most of the teams in this league. He is going to be a star. Its never bad to have a stash of elite talent at a position. Just ask the Guardians, who have so much flexibility to do as they please with their infield because of the horde of prospects that could make a big impact on the dirt.
DL Hall, an LHP with electric stuff highlighted by a fastball that tops at 100 mph, is rated #97 by pipeline, but #71 in my opinion. he absolutely can be a starter, but he needs to iron out his walk issues. He does that, he headlines a rotation, if he doesn’t, he is a hard throwing closer. I would take either one of those options.
Coby Mayo is a corner infielder prospect who has a ton of hype right now. he destroyed the ball in the minors last year but really doesn’t have a spot on the MLB roster and is blocked by other potential prospect call ups who get there first. He is bat first, and that bat is very good. Top 30 lists for each team haven’t come out yet per MLB, but I would rate Mayo #6 behind the “big 4” and Hall. He would be top 3 for a bunch of teams
The rest of this package is major league contributers and depth. John Means is coming off TJ surgery and missed all of last year, but I expect him to return to the dominant lefty that headed the Orioles in 2019-2020. Jorge Mateo doesn’t really have a spot on the O’s, because of the horde of prospects forcing the issue and the special talent that is Gunnar Henderson. He is a gold glover(at least should have been) and one of the fastest players in the league. He plays multiple infield positions. Bruce Zimmerman had a breakout year given the chance in 2021, but lost his rotation spot to Kyle Bradish last season. He is still controllable and offers an inning eater arm.
The Brewers would likely ask for one or more of Holliday, G Rod, or Henderson. Henderson and Rodriguez are clearly off the table. so this is a package that I think would be offered to a Brewers team stuck somewhere in between retool and contender.
In a trade for Burnes, the Brewers would want Rodriguez plus more. Otherwise the deal is dead immediately. The return in massive in numbers ONLY. Hall has severe control problems, and as the Brewers have seen far too often, that plays out very badly in Milwaukee. Means won’t even pitch until end of May and then will be limited. Zimmerman probably gets sent to the minors if he has options. You were right when you said the Brewers don’t want or need Cowser. Getting him just to trade two other top prospect OFs is ridiculous. Why not just get somebody else besides Cowser. Mateo and his weak bat may not even make the OD roster. Mayo is a 1B who needs to make more contact and is a year or more away.
Not gonna argue with that.
Although few notes:
Trading other OF prospects is not a lock nor am I saying that they should trade those guys
Mayo can easily hit his way to a September recall up or earlier if someone gets hurt, which seems to be the norm these days. Starter gets hurt, crates opportunities for a top prospect, who runs away with the job as starter was mid. Mayo is easily play his way in front of Urias at 3B in Baltimore or Tellez and other options at 1B or even 3B in MIL
First, I’d like to thank GMakd for his comments regarding his trade proposal. I think it’s important to see the thought process and logic from the person that proposed the trade.
From a Brewer perspective, I’d like to share with you the following ideas:
I think the Brewers would like to include Santander and Seth Johnson in the trade instead of Cowser and Mateo. Johnson gives the Brewers an additional pitching prospect and Santander becomes the starting right fielder for the Brewers. I think Santander provides the Brewers a better right-handed bat then Tyronne Taylor, the expected rightfield starter. Taylor remains with the Brewers as an excellent 4th outfielder. Frelick begins the year in AAA and delays his first arbitration year. I think Wiemer was going to need more time in AAA anyway, so he’s not initially affected by Santander’s presence. Frelick could still see lots of at bats with the Brewers this year especially if Mitchell isn’t working out as hoped or if an injury or trade occur involving an outfielder.
I agree with Jmont1’s concerns regarding Mayo, Hall and Means but I would still like them included in the trade. The Brewers have no one in there top 30 prospect list that plays first base as their primary position. Mayo fills that void and his prospect status makes him a good candidate to replace Tellez when the time comes. Hall’s potential is worth the chance that his control will get better, and he can work that out in AAA to at least begin the year. Means can be put on the 60-day IL initially if the trade is made at the proper time and be a starter or long relief pitcher for the balance of the season. His salary is low enough that he is worth a bounce back risk.
Ironically my suggested changes to the trade benefit the Orioles in Total Value. However, I see Santander and Johnson being more value to the Brewers then Cowser and Mateo. If the Brewers could somehow pry Rodriguez or Henderson from the Orioles that would be ideal, but I think realistically this trade proposal put forth by GMakd and amended by me maybe has a better chance of being approved. With that said, I don’t think the Brewers are going to trade Burnes this year. But if they do, a trade like this would be tempting.
This package with Santander and Johnson is something I would get behind. The brewers might like this and I think the orioles, with a chance to keep all 4 of their top prospects would absolutely pull the trigger in this point. Losing Santander isn’t to big because I think Kyle Stowers could capably fill that role.
Thanks for your reply. I was hoping you would like the amended version. I was also thinking the Orioles would be more favorable to this deal. I’m sure the Brewers would also like Cowser despite having good OF prospects but in my opinion this trade is more likely to be acceptable to both teams. The Orioles would brag about getting a Cy Young caliber pitcher without giving up any of their top 4 prospects. The Brewers would brag about being able to add more hitting to the current lineup and getting a proven pitcher to add to the staff. In addition the Brewers add 3 bona fide pitching prospects who could be major league ready as soon as this year. They also receive a top 1B hitting prospect who can also play 3B. These players fit comfortably into the Brewers player salary budget and provide many years of team control.
Mayo I think can easily hit his way to the majors in the next couple years. I’m high on him. And the Brewers really need a high upside
It all depends on if the Brewers want to retool/rebuild or still try to win during the same year they trade Burnes right? That could determine if they take Cowser or Santander because Cowser for sure can become way better than Santander.
DL Hall could, if he doesn’t stick n rotation, be the power arm that fills the void Josh Hader left. not saying he’ll be Hader level, but hes got the stuff and walks as much of an issue in the bullpen, even if its high leverage.
thanks for your comment by the way, It’s always fun for me when I can engage in strategy and reasoning with other users.