Submitted by: tbsox
March 1, 2023
Red Sox
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availablility | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anderson | 25 | Majors | SP | Very low | 4 | 16.5 | 5.1 | 11.4 | 9.1 | 11.4 | 14.7 | |
| Rosario | 31 | Majors | OF | Medium | 2 | -1 | 9 | -10 | -9 | -9 | -9 | |
| Smith-Shawver | Minors | RHP | 5.1 | 4.1 | 5.1 | 6.1 |
Curious trade proposal.
Rosario’s a -9 median value here. He’s $9MM for this season with a Club Option in ’24. Fangraphs has posted several projection models for the upcoming season and none of them have Rosario as being anything more than an average hitter and a poor defender. He’s projected to be just short of 0 WAR.
I’m a Braves fan and so I’m hoping for something better. I also believe these reported vision problems in ’22 are legit and if he says he’s better then I have no reason to doubt him. Still, he’d have to be the biggest surprise for the Braves in ’23 if he’s going to be worth his money.
I don’t like the upside for Rosario but I do like the upside for Alex Verdugo. If he can show up and be a leader for the Sox then that’d be great. He might also reach 2+ WAR and 110+ wRC+ with 10-15 HR’s and sniff .350 OBP. He’s $6.3MM, so about 2/3rds the price of Rosario and he’s Arb3 next year.
I can understand how Verdugo’s mercurial. I can certainly understand how Ian Anderson has that in spades. However, Anderson’s cheaper, has options on his contract, and he while the promise on his potential seems to be dimming among the Braves fans on the ‘net, I would not be the least bit surprised if at the end of the 2023 season that the combination of Anderson and Rosario was of greater value than that of Verdugo’s, assuming that they all had equal opportunities to take the field in which they were healthy.
I’m a Braves fan and I follow their minor league guys very casually through fan sites.. I like what I read about AJ Smith-Shawer’s performance ok. I dig his slider/fastball combo. I wouldn’t trade Verdugo for two of him unless I was a team rebuilding that was years away and I thought the guy was a sure thing. AJ Smith-Shawer is a really young prospect. I don’t like this kind of value on really young pitchers because it’s too volatile for me and predicated on results that have a lot to do with learning and aren’t 100% about competing. Also, the guy was drafted 200 other players and drafted in 2021. He’s maybe/probably the highest rated prospect in ATL right now, but maybe that’s because a lot of those guys are in the majors now or have been traded away.
That value on a far-off prospect would maybe work in this trade for me if he was a smaller market team or a rebuilding team. I don’t think that’s the Red Sox in either case. Smith-Shawer probably has the greatest value among the “pure prospects” in Atlanta. I’ll stick with his upside, as I’m a homer like that
Ian Anderson may just be a guy whose value can’t be capitalized on by the Braves in 2023 but that’s not to say it’s not an absolute value.
I’m sure Verdugo would be an upgrade over Rosario so I like the idea of the Braves getting better there. Ultimately though, I don’t find this to be much of a fit. While I like Verdugo over Rosario, I don’t think Rosario’s going to be a -9 value in2023. I don’t expect Verdugo to gain in value any more than Rosario will and if I’m wrong then whichever team will still have Verdugo under contract and he will probably be worth keeping.
I also think there’s an opportunity, sans Mike Soroka, for Anderson to be a positive for the Braves and therefore increasing his value. I posted a trade proposal on this site about mid-season last year and Anderson had about 500% more value then. I did so because I was sure that value was inflated but my point here is that to accept these values now is to be skewed because that’s a whole lot of drop between these two points.
It’s a 1.3 value in favor of the Braves on this trade and I appreciate this proposal not being one that’s just throwing in guys to be make it balanced math as if that were to give reason for it to be validated. My appreciation for this trade is in my response.
I like Verdugo. I’d have to see Rosario and/or Ozuna get traded away before I wanted him wearing a Braves uniform. I’m not feeling like the Braves should part with Anderson at this 11.4 value or even at 12.7 if it were to make this trade “Even Steven” As a Braves fan, I’d do Rosaro & Anderson for Verdugo.
Thanks Mac….really appreciate the in depth review. Hopefully ER has a good year for your Braves (I tend to believe the eye issue myself).
I was typing out those comments from my phone while I waited for my car to get inspected. I clearly didn’t do a good job editing. When Ian Anderson and AJ Smith-Shawver are two of the best guys that Atlanta has to offer in a trade, there isn’t much. And I do believe that those two guys are in fact some of the best in that category. The team’s up against the luxury tax threshold, so there’s not a lot of wiggle room there. I expect it could look like a very similar situation for the team for next season as well.
MAC….agreed. That is why I was trying to target them for the Sox (as ownership has gotten very frugal…. for a major market, after they bought Liverpool). I definitely understand the Braves wanting to get more in return for those 2 assets from a team near the cap.