Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
| Name |
Age |
Level |
P1 |
P2 |
Availablility |
Years |
AFV |
Salary |
Surplus |
Low |
Median |
High |
| Aranda |
25 |
Majors |
1B |
|
Medium |
6 |
23.8 |
8.8 |
15 |
12 |
15 |
18 |
| Urias |
26 |
Majors |
SS |
2B |
Low |
3 |
44.4 |
25.3 |
19.1 |
15.3 |
19.1 |
22.9 |
| Name |
Age |
Level |
P1 |
P2 |
Availablility |
Years |
AFV |
Salary |
Surplus |
Low |
Median |
High |
| Brujan |
25 |
Majors |
2B |
OF |
Medium |
6 |
6.8 |
0.7 |
6.1 |
4.9 |
6.1 |
7.4 |
| Paredes |
24 |
Majors |
3B |
|
Low |
5 |
39.2 |
23.6 |
15.6 |
12.5 |
15.6 |
18.7 |
| Vargas |
23 |
Majors |
1B |
3B |
Low |
6 |
30.4 |
0.7 |
29.7 |
23.8 |
29.7 |
35.6 |
| Name |
Age |
Level |
P1 |
P2 |
Availablility |
Years |
AFV |
Salary |
Surplus |
Low |
Median |
High |
| Frelick |
|
Minors |
OF |
|
|
|
|
|
32.7 |
26.2 |
32.7 |
39.2 |
| Muncy |
32 |
Majors |
1B |
|
Low |
2 |
31.3 |
23.5 |
7.8 |
6.2 |
7.8 |
9.4 |
Urias becomes the Dodgers SS. Aranda can play all the same positions as Muncy, about as poorly. Vargas is blocked by Freeman and JD Martinez, so he’s used to upgrade SS.
The Brewers need a long term plan at 1b, as Tellez should DH. Their 2b situation is a mess. Paredes adequately replaces Urias, and Brujan has a higher ceiling than any current 2 option.
The Rays need OF, as both Arozarena and Margot are likely gone in the next year. Josh Lowe or hopefully takes another step this year, but even so, the Rays need a high ceiling OF. Muncy gets a lot of reps at 3rd, 1st and DH, while the Rays wait for Mead and Manzardo to mature. The Rays struggled against RHP in 2022, and Muncy is a big proven bat that can help remedy that problem.
Rays aren’t going to trade 3 infielders in one trade. They value depth too much to do this trade. Rays also seem very committed to finding out what they have in Lowe and Raley this year, so I don’t think they would be interested in bringing in another outfield prospect at the moment. I’m a huge Frelick fan, and would be thrilled if the Rays brought him in, but I don’t think it’s something the Rays would be interested in right now.
Like you, I think Aroz and Margot are highly likely to be traded next year if one of Lowe or Raley develops. I personally think Mead is headed to LF with the Rays, so if Mead replaces Aroz in LF and Lowe (or Raley) takes over RF, that leaves the 4th outfield spot for the loser of Lowe/Raley, or K.Misner or T.Peters or some veteran they sign for around league minimum. Apparently Greg Jones will get CF reps this year too, but I don’t think that matters much.
Brewers say no very quickly. The Brewers like their situation at 2B with Urias there. They would much, much rather have Urias than Parades. Brujan is terrible and Milwaukee doesn’t want him because they have better options already in house. Any team in baseball would love to have Vargas, but not at the expense of losing Frelick.
The Brewers have a 2 year window before the rebuild starts, and if they get off to a bad start, it might even start at the deadline. They lose Burnes, Woodruff, and Adames in 600 days. I’m not going to claim to be a Brewers expert, but Yelich isn’t going anywhere, and they have about a half dozen options for the other 2 outfield spots before we even get to Frelick or Chourio. I’ll be watching to see if Brian Anderson 3rd baseman, and Jesse Winker DH pan out. I have my doubts. I suspect they’ll want to use some of that OF depth to address those positions long term.
Urias and Paredes are similar players, so I don’t know why the Brewers “would much, much rather have Urias than Paredes”. If they are that wedded to Urias, there must be off field intangibles involved because he’s not a better player than Paredes and he costs a lot more in salary. That said, if the Brewers are trading Frelick, I think they need to get a better overall return than this. Shaq’s persuasive argument aside, this trade boils down to Frelick for Vargas for the Brewers, and that’s not a trade I’d make if I’m the Brewers.