Submitted by: ShaquilleOatmeal
| Name |
Age |
Level |
P1 |
P2 |
Availablility |
Years |
AFV |
Salary |
Surplus |
Low |
Median |
High |
| Assad |
25 |
Majors |
SP |
|
Medium |
6 |
5.8 |
3.1 |
2.7 |
2.2 |
2.7 |
3.2 |
| Name |
Age |
Level |
P1 |
P2 |
Availablility |
Years |
AFV |
Salary |
Surplus |
Low |
Median |
High |
| Brujan |
25 |
Majors |
2B |
OF |
Medium |
6 |
8 |
0.7 |
7.3 |
5.8 |
7.3 |
8.8 |
| Patino |
23 |
Majors |
SP |
RHRP |
Low |
4 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
The Rays need a #6 SP to fill in for Glasnow. Must have options, must make league minimum. Must have minimal acquisition cost. I’m not set on Assad, but he’s had good results.
The Cubs get 2 high upside players, that will most likely be learning Japanese by the middle of June. But their value lies in the maybe. Maybe Brujan is Dee Gordon with 15 HR power. Maybe Patino is Kenley Jansen (Patino should never start another game. Ditch all but 2 pitches, and hope for the best).
Probably neither finish the year in the big leagues. But their ceiling is light years above Assad’s ceiling.
Patino’s stuff has returned this Spring, with him hitting 97 in ST games with ease. Now he needs to regain his control. Rays are encouraged by his Spring. I’d be shocked if they gave him away at this point.
He’s horrible. He will cost the Rays 5 games in the standings if he gets 6 starts. Doesn’t get swings and misses. Doesn’t fool anyone. Doesn’t have the slightest clue where it’s going. He’s awful.
I know you don’t think much of him but …. (wait for it)….. you could be wrong. 😜
If I’m wrong, it will be the second time ever.
The first time was when I thought I was wrong, but I was wrong. It turns out I was right.
It’s put up or shut up time for him. This is his fourth year pitching in the Major Leagues. I know people got tired of hearing it, and I became a punchline, but it’s the truth: He started six games last year, not a tiny amount. He was the bottom 1% of the three most important things a pitcher can do: strike you out, not walk you, not give up home runs. He didn’t do this because his velocity was down two miles per hour. He did this because he didn’t fool anybody. Pitching is about deception, and he doesn’t have any. When he releases the ball, they know the pitch. They know what it’s going to do. His pitches look so different from one another, he might as well just tell them what’s coming.
You ever seen a lefty with a bad pick-off move? Where there’s not a chance in hell he’s going to ever pick somebody off? That’s Patinos slider.
They need to choose the 2 pitches that look the most similar coming out of the hand, the fastball and sinker, and ditch the rest of them. Then move him to the bullpen and hope to salvage some value. His future isn’t as a starter.
Yeah, but he was injured all last year. His FB was low 90s and now it’s upper 90s. That’s huge. And I know you tire of hearing it, but he’s basically the age of a college draftee.
He wasn’t hurt yesterday when he had probably the worst performance of his career.
Performance matters. Maybe not for a 30 year old working on a few things, but for a 24-year-old who spent most of the year in AAA after being a top 10 prospect, you better show up and be good. Instead, he hit 3 of the 14 batters he faced, walked another, and gave up 5 hits, including 2 home runs. 9 of 14 batters reached base.
But stuff+.
The Rays have a great squad. So do the Blue jays, so do the Yankees. They’re playing in another wild card game if they win 95 games this year. They miss the playoffs if they win 90 games. They can’t give Luis Patino 3 months hoping for him to improve to mediocrity, but likely getting more of the same…worst pitcher in baseball.
He needs to show precipitous improvement in AAA before they can jeopardize losing games by putting him on the mound.
Additionally, he hit 97 against Choi. Most fastballs were in the 94 to 95 range.
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?date=3/17/2023&gamePk=719080&chartType=pitch&legendType=pitchName&playerType=pitcher&inning=&count=&pitchHand=&batSide=&descFilter=&ptFilter=&resultFilter=&hf=pitchVelocity&sportId=51
Lets change this discussion somewhat. The Rays have 9 starters on the 40 man right now, which I have argued is 1 too many. Glas, McClanny, Springs, Ras, Eflin and Bradley aren’t going anywhere. That leaves one of Chirinos, Fleming or Patino to be shopped before opening day. Who ya trading, keeping in mind that all 3 are out of options next year (ie: they either step up enough to break into the rotation next year or they get traded in the next 12 months)?
I just can’t see Fleming or Chirinos rejoining the Rays’ rotation at this point. Injury replacements, sure, but not everyday starters. Patino could still develop into a starter if the Rays can teach him better control/command. And lets not lose sight of the fact that the winner of this race becomes the Rays’ 8th starter (ie: someone who is very unlikely to see any/much playing time with the Rays this year, and then get traded in the offseason).
I trade/DFA Patino tomorrow. I almost think yesterday sealed his fate. A pitcher without deception or command is a worthless commodity, especially on the Rays. They aren’t going to let him consistently miss spots and remain a Ray. He can’t even be a replacement level reliever without a lot of improvement. It’s like watching Jose Alvarado those 2 bad years for us, but Patino doesn’t have Alvarado’s size, velocity, slider, or deception. He just has his lack of command. Alvarado eventually got his command back, but it took years. And Patino has never had the success that Alvarado had. Graveyards are littered with the bones of pitchers with mid-90s fastballs with poor command. They are a dime a dozen. I’m not familiar with stuff plus, but enough people are talking about it that maybe he has some value to somebody like the Pirates. But I don’t think he ever throws another pitch for the Rays.
To me, the clear frontrunner for the fifth starter job is Yonny. His velocity last year was down 2 mph from when he was successful. So far this spring, he’s throwing about as hard as Patino is. He hit 96 yesterday, averaged 94-95.
I thought it was interesting that the Rays had Beeks go more than one inning yesterday. That seems unusual for a reliever this early in spring training. They have 3 lefties in the pen, which is borderline too many. It would be interesting to try to get through 6 with a R/L Yonny/Beeks piggyback, and see how Beeks does being stretched out. As to which is the opener and which is the bulk, who knows. It might depend on the team they’re facing.
Fleming is a fine #8, emergency starter. He isn’t good enough to be a #6. He and Patino are like the old addage about would you rather have a running back that gets exactly 3.3 yards per carry every time, or the running back that gets 10 yards, 0 yards, and 0 yards. I’d rather have the 3.3, Fleming. You know you are getting consistently pretty bad, and can game plan around it. Know you have a poor chance of winning. Rest your starting catcher. Get BLowe and Wander a day off. Blow the pen the night before, knowing Fleming gets 5-6 innings no matter what, and likely leaves having allowed 3-5 runs.
As opposed to Patino, the 10 yard, 0 yard, 0 yard , 3.3 average pitcher. Might go 7 innings and give up 3 hits. But way more likely, walks 5 by the 3rd inning, and you’re stuck blowing up the bullpen being down five runs with 20+ outs to go.
I haven’t ruled out outside hire. There’s 2 40 man spots that will open shortly. I honestly do not believe Patino nor Brujan are on the 40 man roster on opening day. Brujan is behind Gray, Robertson, Culberson, and Basabe in middle infield depth.
Starting a new thread.
So it seems you agree Patino has the higher ceiling. You just don’t think he will reach it. For my money, I’ll take the RB who hits 10 yards every carry and who might develop into a 10 yards per carry RB, rather than the guy I expect to lose with every time out. The trade return is negligible today, so even if the Rays DFA all 3 over the next year, it’s not a huge loss at current values. The upside with Patino is still something to hope for.
The biggest problem with Patino is that he has taken steps backwards, the more experience he gets. It’s not velocity that doomed him last year, it’s missing every spot on every pitch. And so far this year, the velocity returned, but so did the poor command.
I’m a big believer in affirmative action. Give me the C student making Bs with no books in the home, keeping their family’s lights on by working after school, and someone else can have the C student making A’s, hiring math and English tutors with inherited money.
Similarly, in the first round, my first draft pick isn’t always the best player. It’s probably not the guy that’s maxed out as a junior, who played at an SEC school and has grown up playing on travel teams and showcase daddy ball. Give me the football player that only picked up baseball last year, but can hit it 450 but can’t hit a curve ball yet. Give me the guy with horrible mechanics but throws 90 mph, not the great mechanics and hits 93. I want my time spent with the players that can get better.
For these reasons, I loved Patino as a 20-year-old. He was a football player. Threw 97 with terrible mechanics. Still learning his pitches His ceiling was limitless. But he’s no longer a football player. He’s been coached by the best in the world for 4 years. His mechanics are perfect, and he still can’t hit a spot. Not all prospects hit, and Patino is proof of that. I don’t care how much run you have, if you can’t be improved and you still walk one out of every five people that come in the box, I can’t do anything for you.
Next.
The Rays haven’t improved him. He has taken steps backwards. For his career, I hope he gets a fresh perspective from a fresh organization. His current mechanics are perfect, and yet he still misses spots by 24 inches routinely. Right now, AAA is too advanced for him.