Typical grover downplaying everyone else’s prospects/players. Espino had a minor arthroscopic procedure with very high rate of success. The A’s don’t have to worry about getting Espino because the Guardians aren’t going to sell him this low. He’s 22 and will be fine and this all stems from the unfortunate knee injury from last season.
Watch Hankins value this season and get back to me then. His talent is at the same level as Espino, Williams and Bibee. I love it when someone tries to figure in the 2020 season to make their point. He’s fully recovered from TJS and is already up to 98 mph with his FB.
So let’s talk about Rooker. Who here thinks that what he’s doing is sustainable and what evidence to you have to support that? It’s a rhetorical question, but I’m interested in the sales pitch.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 14, 2023 at 8:59 am
Hard agree that this is selling low and buying high for CLE, but to play devil’s advocate for Rooker: He has really good batted ball data. Compared to his career averages, his average exit velocity is up 1.3 mph, launch angle up 4 degrees, hard hit percentage is up 5%, barrel percentage is up 6%, walk rate is up 6%, strikeout rate is down 5%, chase rate is down 5%, ground ball rate down 5%, fly ball rate up 3%. He’s always had above average exit velocities, so it looks like he may have genuinely changed his approach: Chasing less leads to less weak contact and strikeouts and more walks, and elevating the ball means more extra base hits and few groundouts.
That said, his entire career is only 400 plate appearance, about 35% of which have been this season. He still has a lot of swing and miss in his game, so it looks like his improvement is primarily driven by going from roughly average in chase rate to borderline elite. He has solid prospect pedigree, usually in the top 15 prospects of whatever system he was in, and has been hitting in AAA since he lost rookie status two years ago, so I am willing to buy him as currently an above average hitter.
He is absolutely not a .316/.425/.667 hitter. An optimistic guess of his true talent is more like .250/.350/.500, which is in the same ballpark as guys like Kyle Schwarber or Rhys Hoskins. Those guys are really good! They top out around 3 WAR per year. So optimistically, Rooker could put up a power and walk driven 15 WAR before hitting free agency. He has one more year at league min, and if he hits that projection his arb could look something like 6M/9M/15M. That would give 3ish years after this one where he is still a positive asset.
Of course, the downside is massive. The league hasn’t adjusted to him yet, and things can go downhill very quickly for a three true outcomes hitter with no secondary value. If Rooker can’t adjust to the league’s adjustment, he could be comparable to modern Miguel Sano as soon as the end of the year. The batted ball stuff normalizes much more quickly than stuff like OBP and SLG, but it is still definitely possible that he’s just on a hot streak.
Rooker would fit better on a smaller market team currently in their window (BAL, MIN, MIL, TEX, LAA, SEA) or a larger market team looking for an immediate upgrade (NYM, NYY, TOR, ATL, CHI, HOU, LAD). I think that CLE (correctly) sees themselves as a fringe contender this year and will shift to more of a win now mode over the next two years as their current wave of top prospects hits. Rooker doesn’t quite align with that window, especially not at this price.
Right now Rooker has the highest wRC+ in baseball… that’s not going to last!
The batted ball data does show improvement and a lot of young hitters need consistent at bats before achieving success. In no way do I think he’ll continue hitting this good and he’s a better DH than COF. I think the Hoskins comp is apt. Rooker is 28 and probably isn’t going to be someone you want to invest heavily in when he reaches his early/mid 30’s.
But he’s healthy, productive, and making league minimum through 2024. That has value.
realchaimbloomChaim Bloom
on May 14, 2023 at 7:01 am
Why would the Guardians trade away two top 50 prospects, their starting DH/1B, and a guy who could have been the number 1 overall pick out of high school but hasn’t pitched because of injury, for two guys with no defensive value who are clearly coming off what will be the best 30 games of their careers? It’s like this trade was designed to bleed value from the Guardians, selling their assets as low as possible while buying as high as possible other team’s assets. Even just looking at their current trade values, either Espino or Valera alone is fair value for both Booker and Wisdom, and Cleveland almost certainly wouldn’t make that deal either!
Cleveland is notorious for being stingy with their prospects. Maybe if they got lucky the A’s could get Brennan for Rooker and the Cubs could get Martinez or Arias for Wisdom. I don’t see Cleveland overpaying, or realistically even meeting perceived market value for these guys.
I don’t see Cleveland doing this at the price up there… They aren’t moving Bell and Valera in a deal like this, especially with Bell at negative 12 value.
Down vote for Oakland.
No way do the A’s trade for the guy (Espino) who just got shoulder surgery and Hankins has barely pitched in the last three years.
Typical grover downplaying everyone else’s prospects/players. Espino had a minor arthroscopic procedure with very high rate of success. The A’s don’t have to worry about getting Espino because the Guardians aren’t going to sell him this low. He’s 22 and will be fine and this all stems from the unfortunate knee injury from last season.
Watch Hankins value this season and get back to me then. His talent is at the same level as Espino, Williams and Bibee. I love it when someone tries to figure in the 2020 season to make their point. He’s fully recovered from TJS and is already up to 98 mph with his FB.
So let’s talk about Rooker. Who here thinks that what he’s doing is sustainable and what evidence to you have to support that? It’s a rhetorical question, but I’m interested in the sales pitch.
Hard agree that this is selling low and buying high for CLE, but to play devil’s advocate for Rooker: He has really good batted ball data. Compared to his career averages, his average exit velocity is up 1.3 mph, launch angle up 4 degrees, hard hit percentage is up 5%, barrel percentage is up 6%, walk rate is up 6%, strikeout rate is down 5%, chase rate is down 5%, ground ball rate down 5%, fly ball rate up 3%. He’s always had above average exit velocities, so it looks like he may have genuinely changed his approach: Chasing less leads to less weak contact and strikeouts and more walks, and elevating the ball means more extra base hits and few groundouts.
That said, his entire career is only 400 plate appearance, about 35% of which have been this season. He still has a lot of swing and miss in his game, so it looks like his improvement is primarily driven by going from roughly average in chase rate to borderline elite. He has solid prospect pedigree, usually in the top 15 prospects of whatever system he was in, and has been hitting in AAA since he lost rookie status two years ago, so I am willing to buy him as currently an above average hitter.
He is absolutely not a .316/.425/.667 hitter. An optimistic guess of his true talent is more like .250/.350/.500, which is in the same ballpark as guys like Kyle Schwarber or Rhys Hoskins. Those guys are really good! They top out around 3 WAR per year. So optimistically, Rooker could put up a power and walk driven 15 WAR before hitting free agency. He has one more year at league min, and if he hits that projection his arb could look something like 6M/9M/15M. That would give 3ish years after this one where he is still a positive asset.
Of course, the downside is massive. The league hasn’t adjusted to him yet, and things can go downhill very quickly for a three true outcomes hitter with no secondary value. If Rooker can’t adjust to the league’s adjustment, he could be comparable to modern Miguel Sano as soon as the end of the year. The batted ball stuff normalizes much more quickly than stuff like OBP and SLG, but it is still definitely possible that he’s just on a hot streak.
Rooker would fit better on a smaller market team currently in their window (BAL, MIN, MIL, TEX, LAA, SEA) or a larger market team looking for an immediate upgrade (NYM, NYY, TOR, ATL, CHI, HOU, LAD). I think that CLE (correctly) sees themselves as a fringe contender this year and will shift to more of a win now mode over the next two years as their current wave of top prospects hits. Rooker doesn’t quite align with that window, especially not at this price.
Right now Rooker has the highest wRC+ in baseball… that’s not going to last!
The batted ball data does show improvement and a lot of young hitters need consistent at bats before achieving success. In no way do I think he’ll continue hitting this good and he’s a better DH than COF. I think the Hoskins comp is apt. Rooker is 28 and probably isn’t going to be someone you want to invest heavily in when he reaches his early/mid 30’s.
But he’s healthy, productive, and making league minimum through 2024. That has value.
In 2022 the story was the Guardians were keeping Espino on the shelf due to an abundance of caution. Now it’s “a minor arthroscopic procedure”.
Daniel Espino underwent an anterior capsule repair on May 2 and is expected to miss the next 12-14 months.
https://www.mlb.com/news/daniel-espino-shoulder-surgery
I agree with BigBat. Love it for the guardians, less so for the cubs and a’s.
Why would the Guardians trade away two top 50 prospects, their starting DH/1B, and a guy who could have been the number 1 overall pick out of high school but hasn’t pitched because of injury, for two guys with no defensive value who are clearly coming off what will be the best 30 games of their careers? It’s like this trade was designed to bleed value from the Guardians, selling their assets as low as possible while buying as high as possible other team’s assets. Even just looking at their current trade values, either Espino or Valera alone is fair value for both Booker and Wisdom, and Cleveland almost certainly wouldn’t make that deal either!
Cleveland is notorious for being stingy with their prospects. Maybe if they got lucky the A’s could get Brennan for Rooker and the Cubs could get Martinez or Arias for Wisdom. I don’t see Cleveland overpaying, or realistically even meeting perceived market value for these guys.
I don’t see Cleveland doing this at the price up there… They aren’t moving Bell and Valera in a deal like this, especially with Bell at negative 12 value.
I totally agree, realchaimbloom.