Cardinals & Mets




Cardinals & Mets

November 11, 2019


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Familia 29 Majors RHRP Medium 2.0 4.1 20.0 -15.9 -17.9 -15.9 -13.9
Syndergaard 26 Majors SP High 2.0 94.3 24.7 69.6 67.6 73.3 79


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brebbia 29 Majors RHRP Low 4.0 31.3 11.2 20.1 17 20.1 23.2
Fowler 33 Majors OF Very high 2.0 7.8 33.0 -25.2 -26.8 -25.2 -23.6
Hudson 24 Majors SP Medium 5.0 18.8 5.2 13.6 11.6 13.6 15.6
Knizner Minors C 10.9 8.7 10.9 13.1
Montero Minors 3B 15.4 12.3 15.4 18.5
Reyes Minors RHP 20 16 20 24
  1. Kyle Migliore

    Even though the Mets are taking back Fowler, I like this proposal better than the other one you did where the packaged centered around Harrison Bader. Bader is a great defender, but I have questions about his bat. This trade fits their overall needs more, with them getting Knizer as a catching option, as well as bringing back two young arms that they desperately need in Hudson and Reyes. One question I have though is why is Hudson’s trade value that low. I feel like it should be higher. I wonder if I’m missing something.

    • John Bitzer

      You’re right that Hudson was too low. We’re actually in the midst of doing some updates right now to factor in one service’s latest projections, and the result is that he went up quite a bit.

      • Aaron Johnson

        @johnbitzer – I don’t pretend to have an understanding of the back end data to all this…but is it in theory possible to make this tool go back in time to past offseasons, with the rosters as they existed then, to game out alternative trade scenarios in the past? Such that on the front end in the trade simulator, one would have the option of toggling to say, 2015 and accessing the rosters of the teams as they were in that year?

        • John Bitzer

          Wow, that’s a cool idea. I think that would be fun to implement — we’ll add it to our wish list for enhancements down the road. It might be possible once we have more data over a longer period of time.

          • Aaron Johnson

            Sweet, I’m glad that intrigues you! I think that it would make a fascinating tool to go back and evaluate what might have been. For instance, (as a Cardinals fan) what would the Cardinals have needed to package to trade for Christian Yelich instead of Marcell Ozuna? That kind of thing.

            Are there any articles posted about the back end data you use to model the values? I’m guessing the hardest thing would be to model prospect values for past years, but I have no idea.

        • John Bitzer

          There’s plenty of background about our valuation methodology in our About section and History section.

  2. Aaron Johnson

    The other thing that would be nice would be a running readout in the trade simulator that projects how the trade you’re building adjusts each team’s payroll for the next year (or even the next 3-5 years).

    And I’d love to have a feature where I could save trades to a private board in my account…a lot of the trades I post I know are bad, I just am messing around and don’t want to lose them.

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