Angels & Tigers & Cubs

November 12, 2019


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Boyd 28 Majors SP Medium 3.0 68.1 30.4 37.7 30.9 37.7 44.5
Hearn Minors C 2.3 1.8 2.3 2.8
VerHagen 28 Majors RHRP Medium 3.0 0.6 0.9 -0.3 0 0 0


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Adams Minors OF 8.4 6.7 8.4 10.1
Davis Minors OF 10.4 8.3 10.4 12.5
Jackson Minors SS 8.2 6.6 8.2 9.8
Suarez 21 Majors SP Medium 6.0 16.6 5.6 11 9 11 13


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Anderson 26 Majors RHRP Medium 5.0 13.0 6.1 6.9 4.9 6.9 8.9
Ramirez 29 Majors RHRP Medium 4.0 9.4 4.5 4.9 4 4.9 5.8
  1. Jacob Sumpter

    Let me start by saying that BTV must feel that Matt Boyd is a better pitcher than he’s shown thus far. His peripherals don’t suggest a TOR arm but his valuation here seems a bit overrated. The package I have the Halos giving up is steep but I suppose that’s what it takes to get a young arm with upside. The Cubs are included because many of the LAA assets are major league level RP something the Tigers don’t need and the Cubs desperately lack. AT the end of it all Detroit comes away with a trove of solid position player prospects, Chicago gets 2x young controlled pen arms that immediately contribute, and the Halos bolster their barren rotation.

    • John Bitzer

      Just to address your question about Boyd’s valuation: we’re not in the “feel” business at BTV. We’re synthesizing publicly available data that we’ve found to correlate well to trade value. More specifically, Boyd was a 3-WAR pitcher in 2019 by most systems we check, and he’s projected for at least that in 2020. He’s also been well above average in xWOBA for the past two years, and comes with three years of affordable control, so the surplus from that adds up.

      • Jacob Sumpter

        Didn’t mean to offend. I just don’t see Boyd as a top of the rotation arm worth giving up the farm for. He’s basically Robbie Ray light (with the added control you mentioned). Seeing what 1.5 years of Stroman (a proven 3 WAR arm) yielded a makes me think the Boyd market will be luke warm. Maybe I’m simply overvaluing LAA prospects. Thanks for the reply

        • John Bitzer

          No worries, all good. My personal impression is similar to yours. But I’ve learned to let the numbers tell the tale more.

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