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Reds & Red Sox & Mariners

January 5, 2020

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Benintendi 24 Majors OF Low 3.0 58.4 24.5 33.9 31.9 35.9 39.7
Betts 26 Majors OF Medium 1.0 74.7 27.7 47 45 50 55
Brennan 27 Majors RHRP Medium 5.0 12.3 7.7 4.6 3.4 4.6 5.8
Murphy 28 Majors C High 4.0 20.4 10.5 9.9 7.9 9.9 11.9
Price 33 Majors SP Low 3.0 38.0 96.0 -58 -60.1 -55.3 -50.5
Sheffield 23 Majors SP Low 5.0 31.7 13.0 18.7 16.1 18.7 21.3
Cash 40

Red Sox

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Aquino 25 Majors OF Low 5.0 15.5 13.1 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
Crawford 24 Majors SS Low 4.0 55.8 19.3 36.5 30.9 36.5 42.1
DeSclafani 29 Majors SP Medium 1.0 16.3 5.2 11.1 9.1 11.1 13.1
Dunn Minors RHP 16.6 13.4 16.6 19.8
Haniger 28 Majors OF Medium 3.0 64.5 15.0 49.5 43.1 49.5 56
Long 23 Majors 2B Medium 6.0 16.5 6.4 10.1 8.4 10.1 11.7

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Bogaerts 26 Majors SS Very low 6.0 210.6 120.0 90.6 77.5 90.6 103.7
Casali 30 Majors C High 3.0 6.5 4.2 2.3 1.6 2.3 3
Groome Minors LHP 3.7 3 3.7 4.4
Lodolo Minors LHP 20.9 16.7 20.9 25.1
Senzel 24 Majors 3B OF Very low 6.0 88.2 19.8 68.4 59.6 68.4 77.2
3 Comments
  1. Will M

    I think you left a couple players on their original team. Please fix this.

  2. Kurt Eger

    This unites David Price with his pitching coach from Vanderbilt, something that helped fellow Vandy alumni Sonny Gray.

    2020 Steamer Projections for

    Red Sox

    Lose 17 WAR: Betts 6.6, Bogaerts 4.7, Price 3.1, Benintendi 2.6, Groome 0

    Gain 8.3 WAR: Haniger 2.3, Crawford 2.2, DeSclafani 2.1, Dunn 0.6, Long 0.6, Aquino 0.5

    Something to consider Betts and Bogaerts are projected at the top of their potential, it would take a historic performance to exceed their projections, Price projections don’t consider his injury or how his age will effect recovery. Performing to 2019 standards would produce between 12-14 WAR by the group of players the Red Sox would acquire, that’s not considering these young players still have room to develop and Haniger was playing injured and was off the field for a substantial amount of time for a non-traditional injury. Showing how money saved in addition to upside and extended control of players could all aid in extending the Red Sox window of contention, while leaving the door open to reacquire Betts in 2021 with the windfall of money they would have available. One other thing is that aside from Groome, the only player yet to reach the majors, the years of control would go from 13 years over Benintendi, Betts Bogaerts, and Price to 27 years of total control over the players they would receive. Which is where their value in the deal comes from and if they did sign Betts in the offseason, they would be doing so after removing Price’s contract at no cost to Boston and while retaining Haniger for two additional years.

    Reds

    Lose 4.5 WAR: DeSclafani 2.1, Senzel 1.3, Casali 0.6, Aquino 0.5, Lodolo 0.0

    Gain 15.3 WAR: Betts 6.6, Price 3.1, Benintendi 2.6, Murphy 1.6, Sheffield 1.1, Brennan 0.3

    This adds a ton of talent to the team and still leaves room for the Reds to trade India, Winker, Mahle, and Siani for Lindor and Freeman. Which would be a 4 WAR increase on it’s own. The best part of those trades is that they are trading from surplus, while Casali is okay and will be a great placeholder for the Mariners as they wait for their catcher of the future Cal Raleigh, Murphy and his destruction of southpaws would create a great time share with Barnhart. DeSclafani would get bumped in the rotation by Price, and Sheffield would be the primary insurance for any rotaiton injuries with Santillan the next on the depth charts. With the signing of Akiyama and then the acquiring of Betts and Benintendi, the Reds would no longer have a position for Senzel or Aquino. Realistically, their bench would remain equally as strong with Ervin and VanMeter to offer occasional days off or late game replacements for the outfield. Also Benintendi being a local kid from Cincinnati might be more inclined to sign an extension which could become very team friendly should his offense become as strong as his defense.

    Mariners

    Lose 8.7 WAR: Haniger 2.3, Crawford 2.2, Murphy 1.6, Sheffield 1.1, Dunn 0.6, Long 0.6, Brennan 0.3

    Gain 6.6 WAR: Bogaerts 4.7, Senzel 1.3, Casali 0.6, Lodolo 0.0, Groome 0.0

    This trade for the Mariners is about trading away outfield depth and solid middle infield role players for a Star to lead the clubhouse, a future star 2B, and space to evaluate the current OF prospects while waiting on Kelenic and Rodriguez to finish their maturation process before becoming centerpieces of the future. Lodolo and Groome offer high ceiling lefty starter options to the future rotation while putting them on the path of the Mariners other cornerstone prospects. Kirby should move fast through the farm system like Gilbert and 2021 could include a rotation of Gonzales, Gilbert, Lodolo, Kirby, and Groome. When paired with a starting lineup that features Bogaerts, Kelenic, Rodriguez, Senzel, Raleigh, White, and Lewis, the offensive core of the Mariners seems to be capable of competing in the AL West. While Dunn would hurt to lose, it would send him to the northeast where he grew up and played ball for Boston College, while allowing the Mariners to receive a past 1st round pick in Groome, who should better fit the teams window of contention. Most importantly the Mariners are trading up in terms of control and command, while potentially trading down slightly in overall quality of stuff.

    At the end of the day, it comes down to how serious the Red Sox are about getting under the cap and setting themselves up for a long term deal next offseason with Betts, as holding onto him now would ensure losing him and it might make more sense to trade him to a team that can’t afford him long term as opposed to a team like the Dodgers or Rangers who might be willing to offer a substantial deal to keep him from reaching free agency.

  3. Kurt Eger

    For anyone questioning the inclusion of Bogaerts, the Reds couldn’t afford his contract in addition to Price and Betts. By the Mariners taking on Bogaerts contract it ensure the Red Sox are not merely throwing away Price and Betts in a salary dump of 10 WAR for minimal to no return. It allows the Mariners to take on the $20M/year contract for Xander, while also including $20M in 2020 and $10M in 2021 and 2022 in salary relief for the Reds. This salary relief along with the free agency of Bauer next year will allow the Reds to control their payroll. Without including Bogaerts the Red Sox would not be getting potential replacements for their major league team, it would not add valueable youth to their roster, or valuable years of control. Most importantly, the Red Sox will be in a position to add another major contract next offseason beyond the potenial reunion with Betts. Without dumping Price’s salary, I’m not sure how the Red Sox could manage to stay under the cap and sign Betts to a megadeal.

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