Cardinals & Rockies




Cardinals & Rockies

January 13, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 28 Majors 3B Very low 7.0 250.2 234 16.2 14.2 27.7 41.2
Dahl 25 Majors OF Medium 4.0 26.7 21.3 5.4 2.7 5.4 8.1


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Bader 25 Majors OF Medium 4.0 41.4 16.0 25.4 21.3 25.4 29.5
Carpenter 33 Majors 3B 1B Low 3.0 23.2 55.5 -32.3 -34.6 -31.1 -27.7
Gomber 25 Majors SP Medium 5.0 6.6 3.2 3.4 1.4 3.4 5.4
Hudson 24 Majors SP Medium 5.0 35.7 11.6 24.1 20.5 24.1 27.7
Knizner Minors C 10.9 8.7 10.9 13.1
  1. Brian Theiss

    Would love to see an article (gonna be embarrassed if it already exists) on Matt Carpenter’s trade value. Not at all suggesting it’s not negative but $30M (median) underwater seems extreme to me when he makes $37M over the next two seasons and the vesting option is easily avoided by platooning him, or if he bounces back you might want it to vest.

    That basically implies he’s worth $7M or so on a two year deal. His 2019 was bad, but it wasn’t that bad. Not sure if you develop your own in house projections for player performance or use a variety of publicly available projections, but Streamer (one of the few public ones available) projects Carpenter for 2.0 WAR in 540 PAs in 2020. That seems in the ball park of what should be expected, which would put his 2020 value around $18M or so (or $0.5M underwater for 2020). Using a 0.5 WAR per year age decline he’d be in the 1.5 WAR range for 2021 and worth $12-13M (or $5-7M underwater for 2021).

    Anyway just curious as this valuation really jumped out at me, any insight would be greatly appreciated. I mean I guess to get to $7M in value that implies he’s worth a little under one win in the next two years (why would a team let that option vest?). So if you take his 1.2 fWAR in 2019 and knock half a win off of it each of the next two years that’s 0.7 and 0.2 WAR, respectively for 0.9 in total, which would be in that ball park. Maybe I answered my own question.

    • John Bitzer

      Thank you for the thoughtful question. We use a weighted average of publicly available projection systems, as well as pretty standard aging curves for both performance and injury risk (the latter of which is often overlooked). That said, we need to update Carpenter’s value because of the third-year vesting. When we modeled him, we assumed anyone trading for him would play him enough for it to vest. That’s now looking like a wrong assumption. So thanks for the catch. We think his adjusted field value is around $10M for 2020 and $8M for 2021, and it’s looking more probable that whoever he’s playing for would take the $2M buyout, so that works out to about -20 in surplus. We’ll fix that now.

      • Brian Theiss

        Wow, I appreciate the quick reply. Good point on the buyout, I forgot to mention that in the scenario where his option doesn’t vest. Yeah, -$20M seems more realistic to me (I haven’t seen any other projections other than Streamer for him thus far).

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