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Cardinals & Rockies

January 14, 2020

Cardinals

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 28 Majors 3B Very low 7.0 250.2 234 16.2 14.2 27.7 41.2
Cash Array 30

Rockies

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Edman Majors 3B 2B Low 6.0 35.4 17.2 18.2 14.6 18.2 21.8
Hudson 24 Majors SP Medium 5.0 35.7 11.6 24.1 20.5 24.1 27.7
Knizner Minors C 10.9 8.7 10.9 13.1
Oviedo Minors RHP 2.5 2 2.5 3
1 Comment
  1. Aaron Johnson

    What we know right now from reporting by Jon Morosi at MLB.Com and Derrick Goold of the STL Post-Dispatch is that:
    – Rockies are interested in major league talent, and might be interested in Dakota Hudson in a deal (Morosi)
    – Rockies are going to want one of STL’s top four prospects (Dylan Carlson, Nolan Gorman, Matthew Liberatore, or Andrew Kizner)
    – Carpenter has a no-trade clause that is CURRENTLY active (Goold confirmed with team officials yesterday)
    – Cardinals are wary of taking on 35 million more in payroll next year.

    With that in mind, the idea behind this proposal is based on the liklihood that Carpenter is unwilling to waive his no-trade clause, but that Arenado is willing to waive his (I am not factoring in whether or not not he is willing to renegotiate his opt out, though as I will explain in the end, I think this could work even if he doesn’t). Given that, the cost/benefit of this deal breaks down the following ways for both teams:

    Rockies: The Rockies are trading Arenado and paying 15 of the 35 million due to him in both 2020 and 2021, the two years before his opt out. In exchange, they are receiving a young and cost controlled MLB pitcher (Hudson) and a high velo pitching prospect (Oviedo), an MLB ready and controlled catcher (and 4th prospect in Cardinals system) in Kizner, and Edman, who is cost controlled, had a breakout last year (and who you can imagine over-performing at Coors) capable of filling in all over the infield and outfield in the coming years.

    Cardinals: The Cardinals add Arenado, and with Colorado’s cost sharing, their payroll goes up to roughly 180 million – high but doable. Carpenter will be used on a platoon basis only against RHP in LF and as a sub at 3B and 1B, receiving some of the AB’s that Edman would have. The Cardinals should add one or two low cost veteran pitchers in spring training (like Aaron Sanchez) to bolster pitching depth, but their top six SPs are Flaherty, Mikolas, Wainwright, Martinez, Kim, and Ryan Helsley

    https://www.mlb.com/news/nolan-arenado-trade-talk-exchanged-names
    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/obvious-interest-complex-trade-cutting-through-the-clutter-on-arenado/article_701e2984-8c17-5c0a-8097-04dea967e45d.html
    https://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinal-beat/quick-hits-goold-on-the-cardinals/collection_9ef987c7-c293-5f13-82d9-340e9e97e7ca.html

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