Braves & Rockies




Braves & Rockies

January 21, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Arenado 28 Majors 3B Very low 7.0 250.2 234 16.2 14.2 27.7 41.2
Cash Array 42


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Contreras Minors C 20.6 16.5 20.6 24.7
Riley 22 Majors 3B OF Very low 6.0 46.8 14.0 32.8 28.1 32.8 37.5
Wilson Minors RHP 15.1 12.1 15.1 18.1
  1. Ben Huber

    Depending on how ugly this gets and who it’s ugly between, here’s some thoughts.

    * If it’s between Nolan and Jeff, the Rockies can just decide to part ways with Jeff.
    * If it’s between Nolan and the overall Rockies braintrust, then Arenado just plain wants out, killing leverage that the Rockies have.

    In the second scenario, the Rockies are looking at spending $70M on Arenado for 2 years, probably continuing to suck while he is potentially less motivated, and then a pretty-much guaranteed opt-out, leaving the Rockies with a Comp pick. If presented with this framework, Jeff B needs to seriously consider how to re-ignite Arenado’s faith and motivation, or get the most he can for a player signed to a market-value contract (w/ minimal SV), rather than “just” getting the comp pick.

    If Arenado opts-out in two years, “saddled” with the QO, he might not be able to negotiate a new contract with opt-out(s) or NTC. So there might be the ability to entice him to waive his opt-out, keep his NTC, and end up on what appears to be a perennial contender in the Braves. Also, if he’s less motivated for the next 2 years, there’s the possibility that his performance suffers, impacting future earnings.

    Rockies get: Riley, Wilson, and Contreras
    Braves get: Arenado and $42M

    Rockies motivation would be to spend $42M (plus salaries) for 6 years of Riley, 6 years of Wilson, and 6 years of Contreras, rather than $70M for 2 years of Arenado, plus whatever they can get with their comp pick.

    Braves motivation is to clearly upgrade 3B, paying “only” $27M AAV (requiring ~3 WAR/year) for the next 7 years. This still feels like a lot for the Braves to give up while still taking on a huge portion of Arenado’s contract, but . . . it’s still below market value.

    Arenado’s motivation is to get out of Colorado onto a competitive team, surrounded by talent, while still keeping his NTC.

    • John Bitzer

      Well said. A trade now seems inevitable, and this one seems plausible. And if they’re going to trade Arenado, they might as well just blow up the team and trade Story, Gray and Oberg too and speed up the rebuild.

  2. Ben Huber

    Or drop out Wilson on the one side and some cash on the other side

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