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Tigers & Astros

July 27, 2020

Tigers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Tucker 23 Majors OF Medium 5.3 63.7 16.7 47 40.7 43.9 47

Astros

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Boyd 29 Majors SP Medium 2.3 55.2 21.8 33.4 28.4 33.4 38.4
9 Comments
  1. Sean Ricky-Bobby

    Verlander is down and they need another adult to help steady the ship while the youngsters have their ups and downs. I think the actual price might be Tucker plus a small piece but it seems like Houston isn’t as high as evaluators Tucker since they somehow favor Reddick over him.

    • John Bitzer

      You could be right. Tucker feels like a stretch, but on the other hand there’s not much else Detroit would want from Houston. They wouldn’t take middling prospects for their best trade chip. So maybe Houston would be desperate enough to do it.

      • Sean Ricky-Bobby

        Yeah I also think Houston just isn’t as high on Tucker. I not sure what they are seeing but they seem to have a lower evaluation and view him as a redundancy so if not Boyd I think he is the guy they offer to bring in a front end arm.

    • Steven Slater

      It’s an overpay, but perhaps necessary.

      I’d love to see what the Astros analytical staff can do with Boyd.

      • Sean Ricky-Bobby

        I would as well but more so because I predict it wouldn’t be a very big change in his production unless HOU has a flaw they see aka I don’t think this would be a Cole leaving the Pirates arcane situation. My wager is that we wouldn’t see as dramatic a change on 80% of pitcher going to HOU because the majority of franchises have enveloped or transitioned over to the Astro’s style playbook. Detroit has embraced modernized pitching approaches and are way ahead of the dinosaur approach used by Searage and the zero analytics style of the former Pitt front office. Spencer Turnbull is a codify client and Boyd himself is a driveline client and they have brought and been embraced in Detroit. They operate 5 and dives, piggy backs and have done a fantastic job developing the army of amazing prospect arms we will all be enamored by shortly. The Tigers are bad not because they are incompetent they are bad because they lack actual talent on the offensive side of the ball and refuse to spend to bring in stop gap talent.

  2. Will M

    I like this deal. It comes down to how much Houston wants to gamble on there being a postseason at all this year. But at least Boyd has a few years of control left. I gave this a thumbs up.

  3. Anon Anon

    Boyd has scuffled out of the gate this year – leaving a lot of pitches up and is getting hit hard.

    The issue is easily correctible in theory, but regardless it doesn’t help his value.

    On a sardonically positive note, he’s only given up 1 HR through 10 IP, as compared to his 2019 ML-leading 1.89 HR/9, so that’s an improvement.

    I’m starting to wonder if Spencer Turnbull may soon become the DET arm that teams covet. He’s younger than Boyd at 27, carries four (4) full years of team control – UFA in 2025 – and possesses more of a power arsenal than that of Boyd, which may be more attractive to buyers (Savant.MLB link below). Turnbull is scheduled to take the ball again on FRI, in a repeat matchup with CIN.

    https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/spencer-turnbull-605513?stats=statcast-r-pitching-mlb

    • John Bitzer

      Yes, we’ve noticed Boyd has not pitched all that well so far. We’re being proactive and downgraded his value a notch as a result. Relevant to this trade, the same is also true for Tucker.

      Turnbull’s case is growing, although arguably he isn’t quite as established yet, so there’s room for his value to increase with more good starts.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I loveeeeee Turnbull. He was the gem of my eye all offseason but I think the Tigers aren’t one of the stupid teams and are very aware of his pending value.

      In a one year vacuum I would still give a nod to Boyd even given his recent struggles but Wooly Bully and his extra control is exciting tho I think it means he is off the table in trades this season.

      Boyd’s struggles are odd, watched a bit of both games and couldn’t really give good analysis on what to fix. He struggled with his breakers on opening day and just straight up didn’t look sharp ditto yesterday. If he struggles next time out I would be concerned but as of right now I chalking it up to 2020 weirdness.

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