Marlins & Astros




Marlins & Astros

July 27, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brown Minors 3.3 2.6 3.3 4
Lee Minors C 6.6 5.3 6.6 7.9
Lorenzo Minors SS 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.1
Nova Minors 2B 3B 9.3 7.4 9.3 11.2
Pena Minors 2B 9.1 7.3 9.1 10.9


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Smith 28 Majors SP LHRP Medium 3.3 45.1 16.6 28.5 24.2 29.2 34.2
  1. John Bitzer

    I think I understand the thinking here. The Marlins need quantity right now, while the Astros need quality rotation help.

  2. Anon Anon

    Astros need a replacement for Verlander, but don’t have the ability to take on any big contracts, e.g. Cueto (SF).

    Caleb Smith is extremely underrated and likely commands a far better return than this particular package, but the issue is that outside of Tucker and Whitley, HOU probably doesn’t have much that interests MIA.

    In this scenario, MIA opts for a grab bag of lottery tickets, with Freudis Nova headlining.

    In reality, MIA probably says no, and HOU looks elsewhere, and/or taps in Forrest Whitley.

    Tough spot for HOU. Not a lot of high-end arms out there to begin with, let alone ones that they can afford.

    • John Bitzer

      Agree with most of your points. But I’m curious why you think Caleb Smith is extremely underrated? He was good in the first half of 2019, yes, but he then fell apart. He had a 6.07 xFIP in that second half, with a 1.41 WHIP. Overall, he was a 1-WAR pitcher, with a 5.11 FIP and a 5.05 xFIP. He had similar numbers the year before. It looks like his only good stretch was April and May of 2019. And yet we still have his median value at 29.2. What’s your case for that being even higher?

  3. Anon Anon

    I just like the raw stuff – ‘crafty’ lefty yet with some juice in the tank. Purely a personal opinion in saying he’s underrated around the league, in reality, especially since the underlying numbers aren’t great. In terms of his BBTV though, I think his valuation is spot on – you guys always nail it. I don’t profess to know much about the MIA system and how they value him, but the three years of control are a huge boon to his value.

    Browsing for deals for the cap-strapped ‘Stros was pretty eye opening as to the state of the market this year, which your article really outlined well. Feels like less teams will be sellers than usual this year – lots of tight races. Very few rotation options exist out there that are of high quality, affordable, controllable, and available.

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