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Angels & Indians

August 23, 2020

Angels

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Clevinger 29 Majors SP Medium 2.3 52.0 17.1 34.9 31.4 38.4 45.3
Plesac 25 Majors SP Low 5.3 32.2 13.2 19 13.3 17.1 20.9

Indians

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Adell Minors OF 75.7 60.6 75.7 90.8
Upton 32 Majors OF Low 2.3 12.2 58.5 -46.3 -55.6 -46.3 -37
Cash 21
5 Comments
  1. Jacob Sumpter

    I doubt Cleveland would have any interest in taking on Upton (plus he has a NTC) but it was the only way to make this trade even. I’m sure the “trade Clev & Plesac” narritive is overplayed but I would be very curious to see what the price is on either pitcher. Cleveland is in perpetual need of OF help and Adell is one of the sports top prospects. The Angels undoubtedly need pitching in the coming years and the Indians have a surplus. I believe there’s a potential match here

  2. You could just add civale.
    If you ask me that right there shows how ridiculously off some numbers are. You have basically a top playoff pitching rotation with tons of control for 1 player with big upside

    • John Bitzer

      Not sure I’m following you here, 1love. Why would the numbers be off? Are you saying that Adell is too high? Happy to debate it, as well as any others you think don’t look right.

      • Jacob Sumpter

        Hi John, I actually think Plesac is the one who’s underrated here. 5 yrs of a mid rotation starter is pretty valuable and there’s some who’d argue Plesac is on the verge of breaking out

        • John Bitzer

          But the problem is that he doesn’t have a long enough track record yet. And he was not considered a top prospect, so he’s already outperforming expectations. In our system — and we have reason to believe with teams as well — we gradually blend the major-league projections with the prospect valuations, so that over time if the former outweighs the latter, the value climbs. There’s a thing called the value curve, and it typically peaks after about two years of MLB performance, with four to go. You see this with guys like Bieber, Flaherty, and Buehler, whose values are at the top of their curves. He’s not there yet — not even close. He may get there eventually, but more evidence needs to accumulate.

          Clevinger, meanwhile, has already peaked, and is on the downside. But it was a high peak, because he’s well established as an effective MLB pitcher. That is still coveted. But as his years of control fade away and his salary increases, the surplus will gradually evaporate. He’s not there yet either. But that’s still more than Plesac.

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