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Rays & Mariners

October 30, 2020

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gonzales 28 Majors SP Low 5.0 84.0 29.0 55 44 55 66

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Brujan Minors 2B 41.1 32.9 41.1 49.3
Hernandez Minors C 13.8 11 13.8 16.6
3 Comments
  1. pete martin

    GOOD RETURN FOR MARCO BUT THE M’S WOULD PASS ON THIS ONE.

    • M P

      You are joking, right? Gonzales is a back of the rotation starter who just had the year (short year) of his life. There is no way the Rays would have any interest in him at the cost of two of their best prospects. I don’t know how this site determines trade values, but the values they’ve assigned to Gonzales (this is maybe the 10th proposal I’ve seen looking to trade Gonzales to the Rays) and Kiermaier (who might not have much value, but certainly isn’t a negative 9.4 albatross) is ridiculous.

      • John Bitzer

        To your question about Kiermaier’s value: He’s negative because all projection systems forecast him to decline as he ages more into his 30s. You can see this if you scroll down to his ZiPS three-year forecast here: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kevin-kiermaier/11038/stats?position=OF

        There’s a big dropoff expected in his age-32 year. The big reason for this is that CFs don’t typically age well, especially the types like KK who play aggressively. As they age, they lose speed, quickness, and aggressiveness, which means their defensive value declines. Further, these types also have higher injury risks due to all the diving and crashing they do. (There have been studies on this.) And for guys like KK, that style of play has provided the bulk of his present value. Yet since KK has always had a below-average bat, you can’t really shift him to a corner. Further still, the market has always valued offense more highly than defense, so that hurts as well.

        So what you’re looking at is a guy who figures to decline significantly, from a risk-adjusted 1-ish WAR player to a risk-adjusted below 1-WAR player who is still owed almost $26M.

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