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Reds & Rays

November 28, 2020

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Snell 27 Majors SP Very low 3.0 86.6 39.0 47.6 42.8 52.4 61.9

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Garrett 28 Majors LHRP Low 3.0 13.0 7.0 6 4.8 6 7.2
Lodolo Minors LHP 19.8 15.8 19.8 23.8
Richardson Minors RHP 5.4 4.3 5.4 6.5
Stephenson Minors C 21.9 17.5 21.9 26.3
13 Comments
  1. M P

    This trade would be tough for the Reds to make, as it sees them lose their top overall prospect and their catcher of the future; however, they can’t afford to resign Bauer and Snell is the only other pitcher in that class of pitchers who is available for 2021. If they want him, they’ll have to pay up (and I suspect the real world Rays would want a better return than this anyway).

    As for the Rays, they need to add at least one catcher this offseason, and I would like that person to be a young controllable talent who the next wave of pitchers can grow with. Of course, the Rays may already have that person in R.Hernandez. Some think Hernandez will be up with the Rays in 21. I see him as the #3 to start the season. If that’s the case, the Rays need to sign 2 catchers this offseason. While Stephenson only has a couple games under his belt at the MLB level, it’s clear he’s ready for the Show. My plan has the Rays trading for Stephenson and then adding a seasoned vet to show Stephenson and Hernandez the ropes (perhaps that could be Zunino at 1 year/$2 million). If Stephenson appears outmatched after a month or so in 21, he gets sent down and Hernandez gets his shot. Ideally they both come out of 21 looking like they can hold their own in 22 and the Rays have a new problem to face – 2 really good young controllable catchers at the MLB level. Having been a Rays fan for so long, I would have to assume the end of the world is fast approaching if the Rays’ catching situation were ever so good, but I’ll take that chance.

    • username 1001

      This is makes sense. The Reds really do need a Bauer replacement, and this fits with the Rays’ style of trading players at their maximum value to build back the team on the fly.

      I have no idea if it would happen, but the Reds really should consider it if they want to compete again in 2021! Especially if the Cubs rebuild, that division is wide open for someone to step forward.

  2. Larry Krueger

    Surprisingly, according to MLBTR the Reds GM said they will try to sign Bauer. It could be he is just trying to appease the fanbase. Realistically, the Reds need hitting and they should spend the money they’ll save on Bauer to acquire hitting. Which means this would be a great trade for the Reds. They would acquire a front line pitcher with a reasonable contract. Having to trade Garrett would sting a little bit but they can get another reliever by free agency or another trade. If the Rays are happy with the prospects offered in this trade then I think both teams say yes.

    • M P

      The Rays probably won’t trade Snell unless it’s for a 20% or more overpay, but I like this package (and one I put together with the Mets). The real world Rays probably want another MLB ready piece to the package of minor leaguers I’ve put together in both trade packages, but I don’t have the insight they do on which young MLBer isn’t being maximized by his current team.

      • Jason Carlton

        yeah Stephenson and Lodolo are the two prospects I think Rays would target. I also wonder how much interest they would have in Senzel.

        • Nate Dub

          If the Rays are asking Senzel, Lodolo, and Stephenson, then it’s clear that they don’t actually want to trade Blake Snell.

          No one is giving up that much for Snell.

          • M P

            Where does Senzel factor in to this trade?

  3. bobby zane

    as a royals fan the reds are getting fleeced on this deal.

    • Will M

      No way. Snell is owed about $40 mill over the next 3 seasons, in which he will be ages 28-30. When 37yo Charlie Morton goes for a $15mill per year deal, getting a Cy Young winner in his prime years is easily worth a promising young catcher and a former first round pick with 7 IP above Rookie Ball, along with a solid RP (which helps the bullpen-dependent Rays) and another ancillary piece. The Rays are the team here taking all the risk.

      • M P

        Agreed. As much as I like this trade, I don’t think the real world Rays make it. They typically want a pitcher closer to the Majors when they trade their top pitchers (like Shields, Price and Archer). Lodolo is just too far away to be of much interest to the Rays I’m afraid.

        • Nate Dub

          *If that pitcher is the main piece.

          In the Chris Archer trade, they acquired a 19-year-old Shane Baz. But they also got Tyler Glasnow, so Baz was just icing on the cake.

          • M P

            Glas was the necessary piece to the Archer trade. I don’t think they do that trade without Glas, but they would probably have done the trade with another good prospect in lieu of Baz.

        • Will M

          Baz was in A ball when they acquired him. I don’t think that would be an issue

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