Rays & Nationals




Rays & Nationals

December 29, 2020


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Finnegan 28 Majors RHRP Medium 5.0 4.7 3.2 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.8
Lara Minors RHP 4.8 3.6 4.8 5
Mendoza Minors 3B 1B 6.6 5.3 6.6 7.9


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Castillo 26 Majors RHRP Low 4.0 37.6 12.1 25.5 20.4 25.5 30.6
Kiermaier 30 Majors OF Medium 2.0 16.1 25.8 -9.7 -11.6 -9.7 -7.8
  1. M P

    This trade assigns KK a – 12.6 trade value, which is basically equal to his final year salary/buyout. BTV’s trade value of -9.7 is based on the assumption that KK falls off a cliff in 2022, not 2021. So there is almost no chance that the Rays trade KK, who is expected to put up nearly 2 fWAR next year, under the terms of this trade. They’d be better off having him play for them in 2021 and assuming the risk/reward for 2022. If he has no trade value in 2022, the Rays lose nothing under the terms of this trade. If his play is close to 2021’s expected level, his trade value would be approximately zero, or 12.6 higher than this trade provides. A 12.6 trade value is the equivalent of a 2022 1st round draft pick, so it’s not nothing.

    • Patrick Pikell

      I see Finnegan as a reliever, who the Rays could turn into a really good pitcher, this would be a typical Tampa Bay trade. They get to dump salary and get prospects, so I see it as a potential win-win. Rays sold Pagan high after 2019, they can do the same thing with Castillo now. Nationals could really use an outfielder, and KK seems like a good fit plus add Castillo as a kind of Doolittle replacement.

      • M P

        I agree that a trade of Anderson or Castillo makes sense for the Rays, and I believe the Rays will trade KK this offseason. I just don’t agree to the valuation you’re assigning KK. Take KK out of the deal and a deal can be reached on Castillo alone. Alternatively, assign KK a negative trade value around 3-5, not -12.6, and a deal can be reached for both players.

        • Patrick Pikell

          It’s not necessarly -12.6 for Kiermaier. I’m giving more for Finnegan, and maybe a little bit less for Castillo. The trade isn’t ideal, I agree, but the idea was to show a possible type of a move the Rays could make, if they want to trade Kiermaier and save more money.

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