Mets & Guardians




Mets & Guardians

January 7, 2021


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Carrasco 34 Majors SP Low 3.0 35.8 27.0 8.8 7 8.8 10.5
Lindor 26 Majors SS Very high 1.0 51.4 21.5 29.9 26.9 32.8 38.8


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gimenez 22 Majors SS Low 6.0 37.4 9.1 28.3 22.6 28.3 34
Greene Minors OF 4.5 3.6 4.5 5.4
Rosario 24 Majors SS Medium 3.0 11.4 6.7 4.7 3.8 4.7 5.6
Wolf Minors RHP 2.6 2.1 2.6 3.1
      • Riley Goodrich

        My Cleveland Friend is sad, but I got to tell you, everyone is saying the Mets really won this trade, but I think this is one of those rare times where both teams actually benefit. Gimenez is a solid young SS with 6 years of control. MLB ready. I understand the Indians have other SS options, but SS prospects are always really great options that can generally play many other positions.

        • John Bitzer

          That’s understandable. Fan perception is usually quite different than reality. Fans are focused on field value and star quality. Front offices are focused on valuations that consider all the angles: age, salaries, projections, decline years, health risks, etc. It’s a fair deal from that standpoint.

          • username 1001

            Yeah, fans tend to be focused solely on field performance rather than the totality of front office concerns.

            But that’s why I really enjoy BTV. I feel like this site has increased my knowledge about how surplus value works in baseball and has given me much more depth in understanding how and why trades happen (and even explains some of the free agent market as well!).

            I think this site has the potential to really shape minds about these topics unlike any other. It lets us play with figures instead of just explaining these ideas in the abstract!

            So thank you for that johnbitzer!

        • Christopher Zanon

          As a lifelong Cleveland baseball fan it pains me to see this but it has been the norm since the Colon trade. It’s a result of an uncapped league. Too delicate of a balance between contending and collapsing.

          All in all I’m not sure Cleveland gets a better deal anywhere else. Though the Mets are clear winners today from a now standpoint. Future wise cleveland did do well. I love Wolf as a pitching prospect and they did fill in holes up the middle. I would have rather seen them try to swing for Dom Smith in the deal but I understand the reality of moving salary and filling spots when you have to. Post pandemic baseball is certainly a odd sight to see.

  1. allotta memes

    It is now confirmed by both the Mets and the Indians twitter, what a steal.

  2. kevin duffy

    Here come the Dolan/Antonetti/Chernoff apologists to tell us they’ve won a lot of games against the Royals and Tigers in the last few years so we must trust them….


    HUGE underpay, imo. Blue Jays could of easily matched this, or payed more

  4. Eli Kov

    Terrible deal for the Indians.. Their priority had to be the $ 33 MM salary saved over the quality and value of the return. There is little chance 2021 will be anything more than a lot of low scoring wins for the tribe.. with the hope the two younger prospects are like SO MANY of the Indians deals.. but, it will take some time..

    This is a deal that should have been given “Thumbs Down”.. easily..

    • John Bitzer

      It’s been clear for a while that Cleveland needed to move salary. They also didn’t have much leverage, nor all that many destinations for Lindor. Also, we got a lot of questions about why Carrasco’s value wasn’t higher. I think this deal shows that other teams saw him the same way our model did.

      • Erik Jager

        John, Cleveland trading Carrasco seems confusing to me. The Indians already had a low payroll. So why the fire sale? Are they to compete with the Orioles and Pirates?

        • John Bitzer

          Cleveland fans might be able to answer this one better than I can. My take is that they sold high on him, as he’s coming off a good bounceback season, but now he’s entering his age-34 season, and his value will only decline from here.

  5. Michael Sprague

    I think it’s a bit light bit not terribly so, as an Indians fan. I suspect that both prospects will be in the 45+ range on a site like Fangraphs when they update the Mets list. has them both listed as 50s. Gimenez is a former 50 or 55 who transitioned to the bigs last year and held his own.

    It looks a lot like the Betts deal tbh

    • Jacob Wise

      Tend to agree. The return is maybe disappointing on profile (they reeeeeally need OF bats) but on value it seems fair enough.

      I wonder if this means there’s another move in the works involving SS prospects. Assuming Gimenez sticks for at least another 3-4 years, Cleveland has a glut of them coming through. Sure guys like Freeman could slide to second or Bracho to the outfield, but Arias and Rocchio, among others, seem to have good value sticking at SS and could bring in an OF…

  6. For once, I agree with Gson. It was a terrible trade for the Indians. How many middle infielders does a team need? The strength of their system is SS and middle infielders so why two more infielders. What about the outfield that is currently lacking to put it nicely? I can’t and won’t support this trade.

    As I commented on another thread, I am done with the Indians and baseball after 55 years of following them. Trading Carlos Carrasco, who wanted to be an Indian is the final straw for me. I will no longer attend games or watch on TV. They have lost me. Good luck to all on this site. Hopefully, your team will give a damn. I am out.

  7. John Bitzer

    Minor update: Eric Longenhagen at Fangraphs now lists Wolf as a 40+ (he was previously a 40). That changes his value from 2.6 to 3.3, which changes the Indians return to 40.8. But we’re already close, so it’s not a big deal.

    • Michael Sprague

      Tbh his assessment of Greene is VERY different from any other outlet I’ve read.

  8. Jon White

    Been saying for months that the Engines misplayed their hand. If this is the best they could do they should have gone all prospects.

  9. sam clark

    Im legit the only one who called no OF in this trade

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