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Mariners & Brewers

February 10, 2021

Mariners

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Garcia Minors SS 6 4.8 6 7.2
Nottingham 26 Majors C High 5.0 2.1 1.9 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3
Ray Minors OF 2.1 1.7 2.1 2.5

Brewers

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Seager 33 Majors 3B High 2.0 23.9 33.0 -9.1 -10.9 -9.1 -7.3
Cash 16
13 Comments
  1. Sean Ricky-Bobby

    Seattle would pay down half of Seager’s remaining contract. I’m not sure how to properly value Seager since if he remains with Seattle its unlikely they pick up his 2022 option making it more likely the trade him but on the flip side he is valuable as the face of the franchise and when traded his team option becomes a player option which is likely to be picked up so the acquiring team is getting a slightly under water 2022 contract. If Seattle is motivated to move him the Brewers would be very interested as long as they can make the money work for 2021. Avisail Garcia’s contract will likely not be picked up for 2022 freeing up some room to have a salary like Seagers in 2022.

  2. jack monty

    Can the Mariners realistically trade Seager with his contract? I can’t imagine the Brewers or any team would want to pay the remaining $18M for Seager’s production. There are cheaper FAs who could put up numbers similar to Seager’s.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I think Seager is a pretty large upgrade over Franco from a talent standpoint especially on defense. Ray and Nottingham are easy to part with probably could be done with a lesser 3rd piece.

    • Doug K

      In 166 games since the start of the 2019 season Kyle Seager has posted 4.4 fWAR, valued at $35.5 million:

      https://www.fangraphs.com/players/kyle-seager/9785/stats?position=3B

      The Seattle Mariners won’t pay another club to take Seager off their hands and may well exercise the 2022 team option.

      Seattle would have no interest in floundering 26-year-old outfielder Corey Ray when the Mariners have 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and three outfield prospects among the Top 75 prospects overall, including Julio Rodriguez and Jarred Kelenic in the Top 10 or 15.

      • John Bitzer

        Another way of looking at it: If Seager were a free agent right now, would any team sign him for 2/33? Especially at this point of the offseason, with budgets tight everywhere?

        • Sean Ricky-Bobby

          My logic with the trade is that Seattle would basically pay for his 2021 salary which makes it more appealing but maybe not such a bargain that the Brewers add a prospect like Garcia.

          • Doug K

            Justin Turner reportedly signed for two years and $34 million plus significant incentives.

            Since the start of the 2019 season Turner has posted 4.7 fWAR, valued at $37.4 million, in 177 games.

            Over the same period, Kyle Seager has posted 4.4 fWAR, valued at $35.5 million, in 166 games.

            Seager lacks the injury history of Turner, who is three years older than Seager. If traded Seager is owed $33.5 million, plus potential incentives, over the next two seasons.

            The Seager contract is not underwater if Turner gets $34 million, plus incentives, over two years. The Mariners may well exercise the 2022 team option for $15 million plus incentives.

        • Doug K

          Probably not at this point in the offseason.

          However, one interesting comp is Kyle Seager and Michael Brantley.

          Brantley, who is six months older than Seager, signed a two-year, $32 million contract after posting 5.5 fWAR, valued at $44.4 million, in 194 games since the start of the 2019 season.

          As mentioned earlier, Seager has posted 4.4 fWAR, valued at $35.5 million, in only 166 games since the start of the 2019 season. Seager missed the start of the 2019 season with his only trip to the IL in his 10-year MLB career. Seager has been healthier than Brantley.

  3. Tyler Dietz

    Holy overpay, no way would you get two top 10 system prospects and a major league ready catcher for a very expensive 2 war salary dump I’d give you Nottingham straight up nothing else

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I think Nottingham is going to be a roaster crunch casualty this spring and Ray has been a real disappointment. Perhaps a lesser 3rd piece would be included but I have Seattle paying his 2021 salary in this deal.

    • Doug K

      Seattle would be unlikely to have any interest in five years of nearly 26-year-old catcher Jacob Nottingham when the Mariners return Tom Murphy, who sat out last year with an injury after posting 3.2 fWAR in only 76 games the previous season.

      The Mariners are set at catcher with Murphy, Luis Torrens and promising prospect Cal Raleigh. Baseball Trade Values lists surplus trade values of $9.3 million for Raleigh, $6.3 million for Murphy, $800,000 for Torrens and a meager $200,000 for Nottingham.

      • Sean Ricky-Bobby

        Nottingham I think would have a small amount of value I can see Seattle wanting to slow the clock on Torrens. I think Seager is very underrated but I feel very confident the Mariners don’t pick up his option making it more likely they accept something for Seager provided it has some window of upside.

        • Doug K

          Luis Torrens made his MLB debut nearly four years ago and has no options left. Torrens was the Mariners’ starting catcher in 16 of the 23 games following his trade to Seattle. Tom Murphy will share catching duties with Torrens, leaving no room for a catcher of Jacob Nottingham’s caliber.

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