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Rays & Reds

February 19, 2021

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Hendrick Minors OF 17.7 14.2 17.7 21.2
Senzel 26 Majors OF Medium 5.0 30.8 4.7 26.1 20.9 26.1 31.3

Reds

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Adames 25 Majors SS Medium 4.0 65.3 23.7 41.6 33.3 41.6 49.9
16 Comments
    • John Bitzer

      This one makes sense to me. It fits both teams’ needs, seems fair, and is a wash from a 40-man perspective.

      • M P

        Agreed. I also wouldn’t be surprised if Adames spends all of 21 with the Rays.

  1. M P

    One thing to keep in mind with this trade is that if it were to happen it needs to happen sooner than later. I would expect Senzel to play 3B for the Rays, a position he hasn’t played in 2 years and one he should play in ST if he’s making the switch.

  2. Steve Stockman

    The Reds would be foolish to make this trade. I know Senzel has yet to produce but he was at one time a top 10 prospect. Trading Senzel now would be without a doubt selling low. Not a good idea. The Reds are not really trying to compete this summer. Why trade a future top 100 prospect and a past top 10 prospect for a SS whose value is derived from an unsustainable BABIP is not a good idea.

    Per Fangraphs UZR/150 Farmer’s career UZR/150 at SS is +11.4 and Adames career UZR/150 is -3.4. Zips projects Farmer to have a OPS of .663 and Adames to have one of .715. Zips project Adames to be an above average defensive player.

    I am not sure Adames is much of an upgrade over Farmer.

    The Reds have a better chance to make the playoffs this year by keeping Senzel, hoping he finally has an injury free year and produces as advertised.

    Adames for Senzel weakens the Reds both now and over the next 5 years. In short, 5 years of control of Senzel is more valuable than 4 years of control of Adames. To add Hendrick to the trade is crazy.

    • M P

      I always love these arguments. “Just hold on for another year and [insert name of former top prospect] is going to be really good, while [insert name of former top prospect offered in trade] has peaked and isn’t really all that good anyway.

      Look, Senzel may turn into the type of player he was projected to be, and if the Rays trade Adames for him, I hope that’s the case. To date, his bat has been ok if he’s top defender in CF, which he’s not and I don’t know if he can get there. His best position is probably 3B, but his bat doesn’t play there (at least not yet) and he’s blocked at 3B with the Reds anyway. Reds have a capable CF in Akiyama. Trading Senzel for Adames improves the Reds in 2021 and beyond.

      Adames (also a former top prospect) has been a more productive player than Senzel in his Major League career but he still has a ton of untapped potential too. Just look at his defense. His problem is not talent. It’s that he occasionally loses focus in early to mid-season games of little significance, but I challenge you to find a better SS in the field during the playoffs. He’s a friggin blackhole at SS during the playoffs, with nothing getting by him. Offensively he has run hot and cold, but the trajectory is up. 2021 could be his best year at the plate and in the field (I expect that to be the case). Suggesting Adames and Farmer are equivalent players is ridiculous.

      I think the odds of the Rays trading Adames are low, but the trade of Adames for Senzel and Hendrick is fair. Adames is a better player than Senzel today, and they both hold promise of becoming better. Hendrick is a far away outfield prospect who projects well. He’s not universally regarded as a top 100 prospect yet though, and the bust rate for guys like him (ie: far away players drafted out of HS) is really high.

    • bobby zane

      Lol what happens if senzel gets injured again this year and never really develops and Hendrick just becomes a mid tier prospect and Adames just stays the same?

      • Steve Stockman

        That is a great question Bzane. If Senzel gets injured each of the next 5 years and Hendrick never develops the TB return is 0.

        If Adames produces exactly the same with the same luck the Reds win the deal in this scenario. However, if you get rid of luck that changes the story. I think most on here agree that a typical BABIP is about .300 and anything greater than that is luck. Lets back out Adames “luck” and get rid of the hits necessary to reduce his BABIP from .388 to .300 in 2020. We will not touch his ISO. His HR, doubles and triples stay.

        Adames had 205 PA, 185 AB, 48 Hits, 8 HR, 20 BB+HBP, 89 TB and 74 K in 2020.

        His Ball in play = 185-8-74 = 103, 103 x .300 (average BABIP) = 30.90

        His OBP changes from (48+20)/205 = .332 to (30.9+8+20)/205 = .287
        His Slg changes from 89 TB/185 AB = .481 to ((89+40-30.9)/185 = .432
        HIs adjusted OPS is .720

        This makes him pretty much exactly the same player Galvis was and they let him go.

        Getting rid of Luck makes Adames pretty much worthless so this trade is a push in our scenario with Adames 2020 luck.

        • M P

          SMH. You might want to check out Adames’ 2019 when his BABIP was .320 and he produced 2.9 fWAR. I know that doesn’t support your argument that Adames sucks, but facts can be problematic that way.

  3. Steve Stockman

    I disagree mp2891. Senzel was fantastic in CF before he got hurt. He had a +7.3 UZR/150 for his defense. Adames was -3.8. In 2020 Senzel was thrown into CF with little time to adjust after spending his entire career in the dirt. in 2020 he was getting proper jumps and reads. He was very good defensively. He was also fantastic defensively at 2B and 3B while in the minors.

    The fair weather Yankee fans thought Adames first name was Elmer. They would see E Adames in the boxscore under the fielding and think the E was his first initial and not that it stood for Error. Houston fans had the sam thought in 2019 when he made an error. Black hole yes. Hit the ball to him and he won’t deny you 1B.

    The clutch Adames had a negative impact in 3 of the 4 post-season series per Baseball reference. The data says otherwise. The team as a whole had a -.54 WPA (Win Probability Added) in the World series. Adames had a -.46 WPA in the world series. The clutch Adames accounted for nearly 90% of their negative WPA.

    The clutch Adames had 8 hits in 59 AB (.153 BA) in the postseason and 25 K’s in those same 59 AB (42.4% of AB ended in K’s) I love his clutch performance.

    Adames struck out in 36.1% of his PA last year. Senzel was at 19.2% I think I would go with Senzel not repeating his .204 BABIP next year and outperform Adames. And to throw in Hendrick? lol.

    • M P

      So you like to throw stats at people to prove your point. I get that. But come on…, using UZR/150 with only 172 innings of data. Get back to me when Senzel is great in the field over the course of a full season. As of now, he has exactly 0 DRS and a negative UZR for his career.

      As for Adames, I’m not going to defend his performance at the plate in the post-season. It was tough to watch. He did manage an .813 OPS during the season though. However, suggesting he was a poor defender in the field during the playoffs is insane. Did you even watch the games? And of course Adames had a negative WPA. WPA measures offensive output, not defensive, and we’ve established he had a poor post-season in the field. But what about that UZR you cite? Well, it is what it is. However, if you look at DRS, Adames had 12 DRS in 2019 (ie: the last full season of baseball) and he had positive DRS last year (2 DRS to his -0.9 UZR for the year). For comparison, Francisco Lindor has never exceeded 13 DRS in a single season and he’s universally regarded as a pretty good fielder. So this isn’t a black and white situation. Adames is capable of greatness. He’s not there yet because he has mental lapses in games of less magnitude (ie: early in the season), but he is a pretty good player with a much higher ceiling.

      There is risk in all trades, and this one would be no different. Neither Senzel nor Adames is perfect. You don’t like the trade, and I get that. For the record, I would prefer a trade that doesn’t involve Senzel. It is what it is. In any event, I think you and I have taken this discussion as far as we can. Best of luck to your Reds in 2020.

      • M P

        Oops. I meant to say we’ve established Adames had a poor post-season at the plate, not the field. He was excellent in the field.

      • Steve Stockman

        I agree Senzel’s sample size is small but I watched him on TV and in many replays he was getting great jumps. He was taking proper angles and he has speed. Therefore, the stats match what I saw. There is no denying he was a great defensive infielder. The tools are there.

        As for your playoff sample size it is similar but with 2 more errors than Senzel had and you have no stats to back your statement. And I agree with you, defensive stats are weak at best and probably very subjective.

        As for Adames .813 OPS in 2020. It was generated for the most part by his .388 BABIP. Get rid of the luck and his OPS drops to .720. If the Rays are competing in 2021, which I hope they are, Adames will be on the pine by June. He just is not that good. Is he better than Freddy Galvis? I doubt it. Is he an upgrade over Farmer. Yes he is. But the Reds are a weaker team with a Adames/Senzel trade.

        • M P

          We’ll agree to disagree on Adames.

    • M P

      Glad you enjoyed it. I’m gonna be up late working because of all the time spent at BTV today.

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