Rays & Twins




Rays & Twins

July 22, 2021


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Cruz 40 Majors DH High 0.5 9.8 5.4 4.4 3.6 4.5 5.4
Faucher Minors RHP 0.1 0 0.1 0.2
Cash Minors 9


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Ryan Minors RHP 11.4 9.1 11.4 13.7
Strotman Minors RHP 2.4 1.9 2.4 2.9
  1. John Bitzer

    I’ve added the cash only to get the simulator to accept it, and show the degree of overpay. There’s no question this is an overpay, and also that the Rays can afford it. They have so much prospect capital it’s burning a hole in their pocket, and they need to move some of it to avoid a serious roster crunch. As such, it’s a great return for the Twins, and a rare miss for our model.

    • John Bitzer

      We were a bit too high on Ryan, who should have been around 6 according to our inputs behind the scenes, so we flubbed that one. That would have made this a milder overpay, but we’ll live.

      • Erik Jager

        This trade reminds me of some of the Padres’ trades last off-season. The Rays could be hurt at the Rule-5 draft. I would predict some other trades for arbitration players.

        • John Bitzer

          Oh definitely. The Rays are in the exact same boat the Padres were. They’ll need to move still more prospects (and maybe some veterans too) to clear roster space. And like San Diego, they’ll likely make more overpays because of that.

  2. Guillermo hernandez

    I don’t think you overvalued Ryan based on publicly available information. Baseball America had him #98 on their preseason 2020 top 100 list. There was no 2020 minor league season, and he has a 12 : 1.5 K:BB rate this year in AAA. If he’s dropped off the list, it’s not because his skills eroded. It’s because they hadn’t watched him pitch in a year, and couldn’t just republish their 2020 prospect list as the 2021 prospect list.

    If insiders think you overvalued him, they are probably correct. But that doesn’t mean your method was wrong. You didn’t get to watch him in player devolpment camp or whtever they called it last year, nor were his stats published.

    • John Bitzer

      Thanks for that. But it’s still on me — I simply entered the wrong number on the back end from our formula. Ryan certainly has some upside, though, and it’s still a justifiable overpay either way, in my view.

      • John Bitzer

        Just a reminder that we do all these updates by hand. There’s a model, but because it requires human inputs, it’s subject to human error.

        • Captain Perry

          That sounds exhausting. Hopefully in the future you come about a way to integrate real time data instead of manual entry. Appreciate the work John.

          • John Bitzer

            No problem, thanks for saying that.

  3. M P

    Rays fans love this trade. Always hate to lose prospects (ie: unwrapped toys) but the Rays have a ton of pitching depth in their system and will not miss either of Ryan or Strotman. Both would have struggled for playing time next year and the year after as it is.

    • Mike Hawk

      I wouldn’t be surprised if they swung another trade or 2 like this one. They’re going to lose some of these prospects to Rule 5 if they don’t, so you might as well get something to help the big league club.

      • M P

        Agreed; although most Rule 5 guys have negligible trade value. Take this trade. I’m sure the development of Battenfield, Romero and Myers played a huge part in the Rays comfort level of trading 2 AAA guys who most likely would be counted on as depth for the Major League roster next year. Before this trade, the Rays might not have had room for both Myers and Romero on the 40 (Battenfield doesn’t need protection this year). But losing them in the draft (likely, if left exposed), would have only cost the Rays 0.7M (Romero) and 0.1M (Myers).

        It would be great if the Rays had another experienced veteran pitcher who isn’t over 40 years old in their rotation. Right now the Rays playoff rotation would be Glas, McClanny and Hill/Yarbs. That doesn’t seem good enough to me. Morton is the dream, but I’d be happy with Cobb or Gibson too.

        For those who don’t know, Glas is expected back in late August. He’s already throwing (playing catch at 75/90 feet) and should be in a BP session soon.

  4. Blake Hesser

    Definitely an overpay but if Cruz helps the Rays win their first WS it’ll all be worth it.

  5. David Easley

    Even forgetting about Rule-5, this was still a mutually beneficial trade for both sides. I know Cruz is 100% just a rental, but as a White Sox fan, the guy provides a contending team TONS of value. Throughout the majority of last season, local reporters were constantly talking about the AL MVP race being between Abreu and Cruz. Funny enough it ended up essentially being between Abreu and another AL Central powerhouse in Jose Ramirez, but I digress. When I saw the articles about the Cruz trade, I really did think the Rays got a good deal… an overpay, but still a good deal. It made me think more like being stranded in the middle of a desert, coming across a vending machine and paying $2.50 for a bottle of water. Overpriced, but nothing you’d regret. But seeing this is kind of surprising, a $9mil overpay? Interesting. Good luck in the East to Cruz though, he won’t be missed here 😃

    • John Bitzer

      Technically, as I mention above, it’s only about a $4M overpay due to a mistake on my part inputting Ryan’s number.

      • David Easley

        Ah, right. That helps a bit but still a lot more than I’d probably blindly expect; paying almost double for Cruz. But still happy for the Rays even if I’m a bit biased lol

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