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Red Sox & Rockies & Padres

July 26, 2021

Red Sox

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Clevinger 30 Majors SP Medium 1.5 17.0 10.5 6.5 5.2 6.5 7.8
Gore Minors LHP 17.5 14 17.5 21
Hosmer 31 Majors 1B Low 4.7 18.3 74.1 -55.8 -67 -55.8 -44.7
Cash 36

Rockies

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Hernandez Minors C 6.8 5.4 6.8 8.2

Padres

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gray 29 Majors SP High 0.5 7.9 2.5 5.4 4.9 5.9 6.9
8 Comments
  1. Bill Wellman

    The Padres get the good starting pitcher they need. The Rockies get a slight overpay for Gray, in a future catcher with a swing made for Denver. The Red Sox get the veteran first baseman they need, a clutch performer when he won his World Series ring. The small-market Padres ditch Hosmer’s bloated contract and use Cronenworth at first base with Frazier taking second base. The price for ridding themselves of the massive contract liability is giving the Red Sox $36 million, the gamble on whether Clevinger will ever pitch again, and the rights to Gore, who was horrible in AAA El Paso before being pulled from play.

  2. DJ dajuba

    Hosmer is signed through 2025 & owed approximately $68m between today and the end of his deal. This would be a terrible deal for the Red Sox.

    • Bill Wellman

      Good point, dajuba.

      But…but…

      The Red Sox get $36 million to cover 2021 plus about $7.5 million a year 2022-2025…and a needed platoon partner for Dalbec who was clutch big-time in his World Series win…and two high-upside gambles on starting pitchers.

      And the Red Sox really do have the money! The Padres…um…don’t.

      • DJ dajuba

        How are they getting $36m to cover 2021 plus about $7.5 million a year 2022-2025? That’s a total of $66m. That’s not what you have in your trade.

        If the Sox receive $36m Hosmer is still owed approximately $7.5m this year. That leaves $28.5m. Next year (‘22) Hosmer is owed $21m. That leaves $ 7.5m . In ‘23 he is owed $13m meaning the Sox need to pay $5.5m. Then in ‘24 & ‘25 he is owed $13m each year that the Red Sox would have to cover.

        Just a terrible deal for the Red Sox.

      • DJ dajuba

        I think your trying to say that if the Sox get $36m & have to use $7.5 to pay him this year that it leaves $28.5m left to cover the last 4 years of his deal. That means an avg of $7.125 per year. Meaning the Sox still need to pay him $13.825, $5.875, $5.875 & $5.875 approximately $32m.

        Any way you try to divvy up the money offered in your deal it still comes out the same.

        Just a terrible deal for the Red Sox

        • Bill Wellman

          Let’s do real math, not speculative math.

          Hosmer is not owed $36 million for the last two months of this season. He’s owed about $6 million (a bit more, but close).

          $36 million – $6 million = $30 million.

          2021 is covered.

          Cot’s Contracts shows Hosmer is owed the following amounts for the next four years:

          2022: $20 million
          2023: $13 million
          2024: $13 million
          2025: $13 million

          Hosmer has an opt-out after 2022. He’s unlikely to take it.

          As cited above, there are $30 million remaining in the proposed deal. Dividing $30 million by 4 years is $7.5 million per year.

          The Red Sox are committed to paying Hosmer this much:

          2022: $12.5 million
          2023: $6.5 million
          2024: $6.5 million
          2025: $6.5 million

          Plus Mike Clevinger is owed $6.5 million for 2022, his walk year. He’d make about $700K the rest of 2021–the Red Sox could fit that–and San Diego would remain responsible for the $1.5 million deferred signing bonus.

          MacKenzie Gore could be cut at any time that Chaim Bloom chose.

          But in return, Boston gets not only Hosmer, but a year of Clevinger (a career 3.19 ERA pitcher) and a career (six seasons) of MacKenzie Gore (a #3 overall draft pick in 2017 who struggled in an extreme hitter’s park at AAA El Paso this season–but it’s the only blemish on his record).

          Just a terrible deal for the Red Sox? I think that, if any team refused it, it would be the Padres, unwilling to sell low on Clevinger and Gore.

  3. DJ dajuba

    Your math is off. He is making $21m this year & next, not $20m. With 60 games to go he is owed $ 7.7m not $ 6m.

    • Bill Wellman

      Well, let’s check Cot’s Contracts for salary info:

      18:$20M, 19:$20M, 20:$20M, 21:$20M, 22:$20M, 23:$13M, 24:$13M, 25:$13M

      Looks like $20 million.

      Now, MLB players are paid, I believe, on the basis of 180 days, not “per game.” Checking the Padres’ 2021 schedule, their first game was April 1. The trade deadline is July 30. So that’s 121/180 of the $20 million paid, and 59/180 unpaid. $20 million x 59/121 = $6.56 million.

      Now let’s look at what I wrote above: “The Red Sox get $36 million to cover 2021 plus about $7.5 million a year 2022-2025…”

      You’re right! There’s very slightly less than $7.5 million left per year! There’s $7.36 million per year! That’s $0.14 million less per year than I had estimated!

      ***

      You don’t like the trade. That’s what’s driving your posts, not the issue of $0.14 million annually. Probably the Red Sox would also ask for Clevinger’s 2021 remaining salary up front, too, diminishing the out year stream further.

      But…

      I gave $0.9 million extra value to the Padres, too…we could just plug that in. For this board, where almost nobody else–including you–gives a tinker’s dam about luxury tax threshold issues, my analysis was pretty good.

      Now let’s look at how good MacKenzie Gore is. Here are the pre-season rankings of where he stood among ALL MLB prospects this spring:

      Baseball America #10
      MLB #6
      Baseball Prospectus #11

      Bad month in El Paso or not, he’s a great value–BTV had him valued at over $100 million pre-season, IIRC.

      Mike Clevinger was 7th among AL pitchers in WAR in 2018 and 10th in 2019. He was traded to San Diego after 4 starts in 2020, and he pitched 8 starts with a 3.02 ERA despite arm issues. He had Tommy John surgery on November 17, 2020, per East Village Times. On July 3, per the San Diego Union Tribune, he was a month into his throwing work as part of his recovery and return to MLB, with excellent results thus far.

      The numbers work. San Diego gets what they need, a pitcher right now in 2021. Colorado gets a pretty good NL catching prospect–great arm, great power–who wouldn’t thrive in Fenway because of low OBP and mediocre skills except throwing out baserunners while working behind the plate. Boston gets what they need–a clutch-hitting left-hand-hitting 1B (third on the Padres in WPA despite a slightly negative WAR)–plus, for taking about half of the big Hosmer contract they get a solid chance for a great “walk year” from Clevinger and a great SIX YEARS from Gore. San Diego, a small-market team, needs that financial relief to keep contending. Boston can afford to exceed luxury tax for a few seasons while Bogaerts and Devers are in their prime together.

      It works.

      But if you don’t like it, you have a “thumbs down” click…which I’m pretty sure you’ve used already.

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