Dodgers & Nationals




Dodgers & Nationals

July 30, 2021


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Scherzer 36 Majors SP Medium 0.3 20.5 10.4 10.1 10.1 12.1 14.1
Turner 28 Majors SS Low 1.3 85.6 24.4 61.2 55.1 67.3 79.6


Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Carrillo Minors RHP 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.9
Casey Minors OF 0.9 0.6 0.9 1.2
Gray Minors RHP 28.5 22.8 28.5 34.2
Ruiz Minors C 40.7 32.6 40.7 48.8
  1. John Bitzer

    Reportedly this is the full deal, and it’s accepted as fair by our model.

    If it looks like LA underpaid a little, it’s not much on a percentage basis, and keep in mind the caveat that Scherzer had a say in it, which may have reduced the Nats’ leverage a little.

    • Nate Q

      Idk when the prospect values were last updated but I could also see both teams being higher on Casey he’s had a surprisingly good season

      • Bill Wellman

        The knocks on Casey are his age (25) and the fact that Tulsa is a hitter’s park. His road stats are only only 40 OPS worse, though, and he’s a legit clutch hitter (.949 OPS with two outs and RISP). Interestingly, he was used as a relief pitcher some in college, where he had five saves his last season–he’s a great emergency pitcher. He looks like a solid MLB fourth outfielder, better at RF/LF than in CF, but with a good arm for right field and a plus arm at the other two spots.

      • John Bitzer

        We updated the Dodgers’ prospects earlier this week, after BA published their midseason update. Casey was not on it, nor is he on the FG board. He’s an older guy who’s also Rule 5-eligible, and fits the profile of a player who is likely to be taken in the Rule 5 draft. So LA would have lost him for nothing, which means his value is closer to zero. The Nats will need to add him to their 40, but now they have room to do so.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      Possible Trea’s current Covid diagnosis also dropped price slightly since he is out another week still not often you see two top 50 prospects traded.

    • Sean Ricky-Bobby

      I think Dodgers are taking on ALL of Max’s deferred money which is no small amount

      • John Bitzer

        Right. That was our base-case assumption. The salary number above represents that (adjusted for inflation, since it’s deferred until 2028 or so).

    • Justin Lane

      Pretty close with your algorithms. Great job. Although i hate the Dodgers getting both Turner and Scherzer…yeesh but to be fair they did give up their top 2 prospects. Doesnt hurt having a bloated 250+mil budget either.

  2. Sam Clark

    The players union needs to veto this. This is becoming absurd.

    • Nate Q

      Deal doesn’t look that bad on paper. I don’t see why they would veto it. Even if it were bad, they dont veto trades simply for being bad trades

    • dodger lakers24-8-2

      as a lakers fan don’t say anything about sports vetos I still salty about cp3 not gonna lie.

      • Sam Clark

        How is it possible that the Dodgers are able to pay for a legitimate all-star team with 5 Ace Pitchers!?

        • John Gilbert

          It helps when like over half of the teams don’t want to spend money and you accumulate good prospects on top of spending the most.

    • M P

      Agreed. How do teams compete with the Dodgers now?

    • John Smith

      The Dodgers haven’t been this dominant since the ’50s.

  3. Mike Mulligan

    Perfect package for Washington. Thanks for all your work here John!

    • chris salber

      I think it is a great deal for the Nats. Turned 10 starts from Max and a year plus of Turner into 6 yrs control of a mid rotation arm, starting catcher, 4th OF, and a lottery ticket. Very good value. Wish my Phillies did it after their run and we would be 10 years without a playoff appearance.

  4. The Prodigy

    Good god, the Dodgers have just destroyed the luxury tax. This does seem unfair to the rest of the league.

    Nice valuations, John, but maybe Scherzer would have to drop 1-2 points because obviously he could’ve vetoed any trades with his 10-5 rights.

    • John Bitzer

      Thanks, and yeah, I make a similar point in my comment above. But since we can’t read his mind, we left that alone.

  5. Brent Blackwell

    This clearly reflects reality, as these trade values do a nice job matching up. Well done!

    But I am curious as to why Turner’s FV is so high. I would have guessed something more in the 60-70 range, thinking $9M/WAR and around perhaps 7 WAR between now and the end of next season. Plus some QO value. Where did I run off-course with my rudimentary arithmetic?

    • John Bitzer

      You have to factor in his value in the postseason (which is essentially an extra month of performance value at zero cost to the team) and the fact that teams pay premium prices for higher-quality players, due to scarcity.

Submit a Comment