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Padres & Rays

September 9, 2021

Padres

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Glasnow 27 Majors SP Low 2.0 50.7 10.0 40.7 32.6 40.7 48.8
Kiermaier 31 Majors OF Medium 1.0 10.1 14.7 -4.6 -5.5 -4.6 -3.7

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Gore Minors LHP 16.1 12.9 16.1 19.3
Lamet 28 Majors SP Medium 2.0 22.3 15.7 6.6 5.3 6.6 7.9
5 Comments
  1. Mike Hawk

    swap of a couple injuries players and some who could use a change of scenery.

    • M P

      Who’s the change of scenery guy? It’s not KK if that’s what you’re thinking. I think the Rays hold on to KK next year.

      • Nathan Thompson

        Why would Tampa hold on to KK? He has a $14.5 MM guarantee including buy-out, the bat has atrophied and he struggles to stay on the field. The Rays seem positioned to swap him out and free up some payroll.

        • M P

          Let me ask you – Why would the Padres want KK then?

          The answer – Because KK is still the best defensive CF in the game. His absence in games is noticeable, especially when Margot replaces him. Because his bat is consistent enough for him to be an everyday player. The same can’t be said for B.Phillips who actually had negative wRC+ against LHP through mid-August. Because the Rays are freeing up a ton of salary this year with expiring contracts and don’t need to cut good players just to save money. Seriously, the following contracts are coming off the books – Cruz (prorated $13M), Archer ($6.5M), Wacha ($3M), Hill/Hunter ($2M), Tsutsugo ($7M), which is not insignificant when talking about a $60-70M payroll.

          Look, I get the party-line on KK is that he isn’t worth his contract, his bat sucks, he’s injury prone, and he’s lost a step. I also get why almost every Rays trade on BTV includes KK. People think they can include KK in the trade to reduce the cost of getting a top Rays player by taking on the salary of another really good player (KK). But here’s the problem with that. The Rays don’t give away good players. They have a WS caliber team this year and probably for the foreseeable future, and no one on the team is as good a CFer as KK. Would I be shocked to see the Rays move KK and save that $14.5M? No, I wouldn’t be shocked, but I think it will take an overpay to get him (and do you think any other team but the Rays would overpay for a defensive first CF with a below average bat?). Rays gave Phillips and Margot a chance to show they can replace KK next year. Phillips is pretty close defensively but his inability to hit LHP is a huge weakness. Margot simply can’t play the position to the Rays’ standard and his bat isn’t all that much better than KK’s to justify the drop in the field anyway.

          The future at CF for the Rays is J.Lowe, who received his first call up on Wednesday. I’m of the belief the Rays will handle the transition at CF the same way they handled it the past 20 years. KK will play CF and J.Lowe will play RF primarily in 2022, and then Lowe will take over CF in 2023. That’s how they did it with KK 8 years ago, and that’s how they’ll do it with Lowe. Ideally, the Rays will add a RHB to pair with KK and Lowe (both lefties), but I don’t think that bat will be Margot. Margot is probably a $5-6M arb salary next year, which is much too high for a 4th outfielder for the Rays. It could be SH Vidal Brujan though.

          One final thought – KK has had only a few brief trips to IL the past 2 years, so the “struggles to stay on the field” line is probably no more true for KK than it is for any other player.

          • Nathan Thompson

            I don’t know why SD would want to add KK. His defensive value is certain but his availability isn’t so are they viewing him as an asset or as the cost of doing business to save some prospect value? I think the party line is right in that Kiermaier isn’t worth his existing contract. I doubt he’d land 1 year/$14.5 MM guaranteed if he was a free agent. Two of those brief trips to the IL occurred this season and the latest RotoNews blurb had him out of the starting line-up on 9/8 because of hamstring issues. Now I know he appeared as a defensive replacement but the larger point is the lack of IL trips does not equal durability. I think the above proposal is light and I agree that the Rays don’t “give away good players” but they will trade a young, cost controlled SS for a pair of unproven bullpen arms, so appropriate value can be in the eye of the beholder.

            The answer to my question is that you think KK offers enough value to justify working around his salary in the payroll. OK. Thanks for answering my question.

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