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Guardians & Rays

January 21, 2022

Guardians

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Beeks 27 Majors LHRP SP Low 3.0 2.0 1.6 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.6
Kiermaier 31 Majors OF Medium 2.0 11.5 14.7 -3.2 -3.4 -2.8 -2.2
Lowe 26 Majors 2B Low 5.0 146.4 40.0 106.4 85.2 106.4 127.7
McKay 25 Majors SP 1B Low 5.0 1.7 0.6 1.1 0.8 1.1 1.4

Rays

Name Age Level P1 P2 Availablility Years AFV Salary Surplus Low Median High
Civale 26 Majors SP Low 4.0 36.6 15.0 21.6 17.3 21.6 26
Ramirez 28 Majors 3B 2B Medium 2.0 97.7 24.0 73.7 58.9 73.7 88.4
Sandlin 24 Majors RHRP Low 6.0 14.9 7.3 7.6 6.1 7.6 9.1
10 Comments
  1. Mike Hawk

    Both teams get something they need more. A straight up Ramirez for Arozarena + Kiermaier would also work considering how many options the Rays have in the OF.

  2. M P

    LOL. I can already hear the Cleveland faithful screaming about their middle infield talent, how they don’t need a 2B, and how they don’t need KK.

    From the Rays perspective, this trade makes a lot of sense. As much as I love B.Lowe, the Rays could open the season with Brujan or Walls playing 2B, which might net the Rays 1/3 to 1/2 of what B.Lowe would provide. With Ramirez at the hot corner and another great arm for the Pen, the Rays might be a much better team as a result of this trade. Of course, they would only be improved for 2 years because the Rays aren’t extending Ramirez; whereas Lowe is locked into a long term deal. Also, I’m not a Civale fan and would need another piece to make me pull the trigger on this trade. I also don’t think the Rays will want to give up McKay and Beeks right before they exit rehab when their trade value is nil, so they’d both have to come out of the trade.

    This trade is intriguing, but I think it still needs some work from the Rays perspective (and I’m sure Cleveland’s as well).

    • J.M. F.

      The Cleveland faithful will scream because this trade proposal makes the Rays much better and the Guardians much, much worse. Also KK is overpaid and Cleveland does not need another CF. Also mp, Cleveland does not need more middle infielders. Lowe’s OF experience is limited as well. McKay’s value is nil, because he would have to prove that he can stay healthy to have any value. Nothing here to motivate the Guardians.

      • M P

        LOL. I know Cleveland doesn’t need any middle infielders. It’s mentioned in every Cleveland trade proposal that involves a middle infielder, even those with guys 5-6 years away. I thought that was obvious from my comment. That said, Cleveland doesn’t have a middle infielder as good as Lowe.

  3. Big Bat

    It’s a rob Peter to pay Paul deal from Cleveland’s perspective, and before everyone gets giddy over Lowe, you better check his splits because he’s not the same hitter vs LHP. He’s a stud when there is a RHP on the mound though. In this deal would Cleveland be trading JRam for Lowe with the intentions of Lowe playing 3B? If not, then who would? If so, then Cleveland addresses none of its needs.

    I wouldn’t sell low on Beeks or McKay either.

    KK is garbage and we have a better CFer and maybe 4.

    I believe Civale to be available and there’s certainly a team out there that would give a good, young OFer for a good, young MOR SP. If not, then Cleveland would be happy to retain his services since he won’t be a FA until 2026.

    This deal makes the Rays a better team by adding the best 3B in baseball along with a solid SP and BP arm. What exactly does it do for Cleveland?

    • M P

      I don’t think the trade works for either team, but it’s funny that you don’t see any benefit for Cleveland. B.Lowe is under contract for 5 more years (compared to Ramirez’s 2) at salaries that range from $4MM (2022) to $11.5MM (2026, which is an option year), compared to Ramirez’s $12MM and $13MM salaries. In his 4 year career to date, B.Lowe has averaged 134 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR per year (or 4.2 fWAR per year based on 500 PA seasons – which evens out the results from his rookie years and the Pandemic Year). Point being, Ramirez may be the better player today, but he’s more expensive and only under contract for 2 more years. B.Lowe is also a lot younger and trending in the right direction (B.Lowe has out performed Ramirez over each of their first 4 years). So the benefit to Cleveland is pretty obvious – Cleveland gets a top bat under control for 5 years at salaries well below market.

      Again, I don’t think the trade works, but Cleveland does get a very good player for 1/2 a decade at salary rates that allow Cleveland to spend it’s money on other positions. Cleveland might not be better in 2022 for this trade though.

      • Big Bat

        Cleveland has the lowest payroll in MLB so saving a few million does nothing. Dolan has publicly stated that payroll will be increased, but he hasn’t given a specific number.

        JRam is likely extended.

        My comment wasn’t a knock on Lowe. It was basically a question asking how the Guardians are improved by swapping Ramirez for Lowe. That “top bat” isn’t on Ramirez’s level. Brandon is entering his prime and put up 4.7 WAR in 2021 in a fantastic lineup. Ramirez is in his prime and provided 6.7 WAR in a far inferior lineup than Tampa’s. Nothing else in this proposal helps close that gap either. Furthermore, removing Civale from Cleveland’s rotation and Sandlin from Cleveland’s BP further weakens their chances of competing with the return of KK, Beeks, and McKay. I know you like KK, but I don’t and we already have a very good CFer in Straw.

        I don’t see a benefit in this deal because there isn’t one, but there’s 3 for Tampa.

        • M P

          I understand that. Just saying that getting a 5 fWAR player for $4MM in 2022 and under contract through 2026 at below market rates allows the Guardians to spend the cost savings on improving the team in other ways. That should theoretically help the Guardians improve their team in other ways with the cost savings. Of course, they have to spend the money, and until I see it I won’t believe it. Ramirez isn’t signing an extension for $12MM AAV after all.

          Getting back to the trade though, I think we’re both in agreement that it’s not something either team would do.

          • Big Bat

            Yes, having a player like Lowe at his cost and control is desirable for any team. Cleveland already has money to spend and it is believed that a good portion of that will go towards extensions. There really isn’t much left on the market that’s worth having that won’t demand a ridiculous investment.

            Ramirez won’t be signed for $12M AAV and Antonetti wouldn’t disrespect him in such a manner. He’ll be in the $20-25M range and they’ll by out his last 2 option years so I’d guess it will be around a 4 yr deal with a mutual option or 2.

            If I were a Rays fan I’d do this deal in a NY minute. Why would you not? Your team is one of the better in the AL and you’d be adding the best 3B in baseball for 2 yrs, a solid SP and a good BP arm. Neither of which are expensive or reach FA within the next 4 yrs. The timing is perfect too, because some of your young, talented players will be reaching their arb years in a couple of seasons. Bottomline, Tampa would be a significantly better team then they already are.

          • M P

            Rays would be better in 2022/23, but then they’d be significantly worse because they’d be without both Lowe and Ramirez.

            Even with that being the case, I imagine the Rays would seriously consider this trade if McKay and Beeks were taken out and Civale was replaced by other players. It’s hard to imagine Civale being one of the Rays’ top 5 pitchers by the end of 2022 or the start of 2023 if their young arms take the next step in their development (ie: McClanny, Patino, Rasmussen and Baz).

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