The Most Underwater Contracts in Baseball, and Why

This offseason, some teams are once again paying a lot for free agents. But what happens down the road, if those contracts go south? Which ones look the worst now? And what are the common patterns of negative-value contracts?

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Competitive Balance Picks Have Been Added to the System

This year’s Competitive Balance Draft Picks were recently announced — 8 coming at the end of Round 1 of next year’s draft (“Round A” picks), and 6 more at the end of Round 2 (“Round B” picks). Since they’re tradeable, we’ve added the to their respective teams’ lists in the simulator.

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Got a trade proposal?

Imagine you’re the GM of your favorite team. Who are you trading this offseason? Use our popular trade simulator to figure out a fair deal.

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The Case for Sean Murphy

Sean Murphy of the A’s is an obvious trade candidate this offseason for teams that need an upgrade at catcher. But many fans don’t think he’ll cost that much to acquire. We disagree, and here’s why.

Let's dive in

The BTV Podcast #64: Breaking Down the First Trades of the Offseason

Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter Renfroe, and Gio Urshela all changed teams recently. In this episode, we analyze those trades and other recent transaction news.

Listen now

Former Top Prospects Who Now Look Like Busts

They were once on the top of prospect lists, but for the last two years or so, these young players have struggled so much that their trade values have cratered.

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Calculating values for major-leaguers

Calculating values for minor-leaguers

Applying our values to real-life trades

Recent Trades

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Braves Get

Oscar Gonzalez

Gonzalez

20.1

Amed Rosario

Rosario

5.3

Total Value: 25.40

Guardians Get

Vaughn Grissom

Grissom

30.8

Manny Pina

Pina

-2.6

Total Value: 28.20

Total Value: 25.40

Total Value: 28.20

jakeyyypoo

December 8, 2022

0

Blue Jays Get

Oscar Colas

Colas

15.6

Liam Hendriks

Hendriks

11.6

Total Value: 27.20

White Sox Get

Danny Jansen

Jansen

24.9

Total Value: 24.90

Total Value: 27.20

Total Value: 24.90

Drew2000

December 8, 2022

0

Featured Trades

Mets Get

Brooks Raley

Raley

2.7

Total Value: 2.70

Rays Get

Keyshawn Askew

Askew

2

Total Value: 2.00

Total Value: 2.70

Total Value: 2.00

johnbitzer

December 7, 2022

6

Athletics Get

Drey Jameson

Jameson

12.5

Alek Thomas

Thomas

29.6

Blake Walston

Walston

13.4

Total Value: 55.50

Diamondbacks Get

Sean Murphy

Murphy

51.3

Total Value: 51.30

Total Value: 55.50

Total Value: 51.30

grover

December 6, 2022

5
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The Most Underwater Contracts in Baseball, and Why

by | 12/03/22 | 9 Comments

TradesPlayersAs you can see on our Highest/Lowest list, we rank all players by their surplus value, both top-down and bottom-up (if you flip the area by the Median label, and reverse-sort). The latter shows what are, essentially, the most underwater...

The BTV Podcast, Episode 64: Thankful For Transactions

by | 11/24/22 | 0 Comments

TradesPlayersWelcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down recent transactions and news, including the Teoscar Hernandez, Hunter...

The Case for Sean Murphy

by | 11/20/22 | 10 Comments

TradesPlayersHere at BTV, fans may be surprised when they see that Sean Murphy’s median trade value is $51.3M.  Why so high? We get that question a lot. We also see a lot of trade proposals on our site that disagree with it, and more on Twitter as...

The BTV Podcast, Episode 63: The Hot Stove is On

by | 11/14/22 | 0 Comments

TradesPlayersWelcome back to the Baseball Trade Values Podcast! In this episode, founder John Bitzer (@johnbitzer2) and Associate Editor Joshua Iversen (@jive_mlb) break down recent transactions and news, including front office movement, trades,...

Breaking Down Shohei Ohtani’s Trade Value

by | 11/04/22 | 4 Comments

TradesPlayersRecently, Jim Bowden of The Athletic predicted that a potential trade package for Shohei Ohtani would either meet or exceed that of Juan Soto. We disagree. We also see lots of articles – and lots of trade proposals here on our site – who...