Submitted by: johnbitzer
August 2, 2022
Nationals
| Name | Age | Level | P1 | P2 | Availablility | Years | AFV | Salary | Surplus | Low | Median | High |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abrams | 21 | Majors | SS | OF | Very low | 5.4 | 54.4 | 7.3 | 47.1 | 37.6 | 47.1 | 56.5 |
| Gore | 23 | Majors | SP | Low | 5.4 | 38.5 | 8.9 | 29.6 | 23.7 | 29.6 | 35.5 | |
| Hassell | Minors | OF | 38.7 | 31 | 38.7 | 46.4 | ||||||
| Hosmer | 32 | Majors | 1B | High | 3.4 | 11.6 | 46.8 | -35.2 | -42.2 | -35.2 | -28.1 | |
| Susana | Minors | RHP | 2.5 | 2 | 2.5 | 3 | ||||||
| Wood | Minors | 1B | 25.6 | 20.5 | 25.6 | 30.7 |
Still not sure if this is the final deal, but posting now anyway. Looks like an absolute steal for San Diego if this is all it is.
Genuinely bad enough that the league should intervene
I have no idea why the Nats are taking on Hosmer’s money in a deal where they are trading their transcendent superstar? From a business and practicality standpoint it makes absolutely no sense.
they replaced Rizzo with the Rockies GM overnight
If Hosmer is in the deal, this is and absolute fleece by the Padres
John Mozeliak can go ahead and hand in his resignation
Holy shi* Rizzo is a cuck and Lerner must like getting probed
The Nationals are on Eric Hosmer’s 10-team no-trade list. He would have to give his consent to be in a deal with Washington.
Dennis Lin
It looks like this will be the deal *IF Hosmer will waive his no-trade. But WTF with Nats swapping Bell for Hosmer and taking on that salary? W T F ???
Seems like there should be some cash going to the Nats?
I’m calling it right now. After the Soto trade is completed the Padres trade Bell & Campusano to the Red Sox for Duran
I’ve been saying for weeks on here Soto is over-valued. Had him closer to 130M. I also think Hosmer is only -25M personally.
I have Soto and Bell at about 140M and the package going back at about about 130M, pretty close imo
I guess A.J. Preller agrees with you.
I am AJ Preller
Even if so, it would still be an underpay. It’s true that we baked in some premiums with Soto, but they all seemed justified. We’ve never seen a player with this much value traded before, so presumably there’s a lot of wiggle room in the interpretation. For example, if you added up the numbers on the high end of the range to the Nats (143 ish) and the low end of the range to the Padres (137 ish), you’d get a fair deal. But that’s assuming best case for the prospects and worst case for Soto/Bell.
Soto at 135M is still putting in premiums. Soto is projected for 19 WAR. At 9.5M that’s a value of 180M. Owed 65M. 115M. Premiums of 20M still seems resonable. To get him to 165M as you have him, that’s 50M in premium.
Not trying to be rude but I suspect that Rizzo and Preller are better informed of values of players than this place is and pretty much no one in the business is saying that any one side got hosed.
Soto is actually projected for 18 WAR, not 19, so it’s actually closer to 170M or 105M in value. 30M in premiums gets him to 135M in value.
I think Soto is over-valued and I’d argue that “Soto was over-valued on this site” is a much more likely outcome than “Mike Rizzo got a bad haul”
So it now looks like the deal is $35M closer, with either Hosmer included and SD paying down the negative surplus, or not included at all. It’s now accepted by our model, albeit still a little light. So perhaps we can agree that we were a little high, but not by that much.
Should’ve been a dodger, all prospects + may is way better than this BECAUSE HoSMER, if hosmer wasn’t in there you go great trade, also the nationals said they want to get rid of Corbin and Soto because the budget now they are bringing x2 of sotos contract so big L
That just seems like way to little for Soto but the Nat’s rebuild is 75% done between this and the last trade deadline.
Apparently, the Padres are paying the rest of Hosmers’ salary after the season and the Nats are only paying the rest of the season.
UPDATE: The Padres are reportedly paying $39M to Washington to cover Hosmer’s salary. That will close the gap quite a bit, to the point where it’s accepted by the model as fair (if still a bit light).
This makes a lot more sense. Now it all adds up to me.