Red Sox & Pirates
Submitted by: JHB
A friend asked me what it would take to get Reynolds. This is a fair deal: a rookie who projects as a mid-rotation starting pitcher, a controllable swing starter who has had success as a closer, an innings-eating fifth starter, and a reasonable prospect.
A fair offer for Reynolds;
Bello SP 33.2
Bleis OF 13.6
Jordan 1B 5
Walter LHP 5.6
PTBNL or cash considerations
2 SP ready to compete for a spot on the active roster
1 OF prospect in A ball
1 1B prospect in high A ball
One (1) PTBNL with a TV of up to 1, selected from the player list of rule 5 players that were not selected in the December ‘22 draft or $1m in cash
I’m not advocating for this, just suggesting that it’s fair for both teams. As a Red Sox fan I would vote no.
So many problems with this;
No GM worth his salt is trading for an SP who just had back surgery until he has seen him pitch successfully and remain healthy no matter what the medicals or the player says.
Paulino can’t be traded because he is eligible for the rule 5 draft.
I doubt the Pirates have any interest in Seabold, even as a throw in.
Bloom isn’t trading 3 pitchers
Paulino may be picked Rule 5, but he’s nowhere near ready for MLB, so I’d doubt it. That’s why he’s not protected.
As I’ve quoted here before, Houck was ready to pitch in late September–there was just no reason to use him. I’ve used the value assigned here. You differ.
Pitchers like Seabold–minimum salary innings-eaters–have a role. He’s only 5% of the trade value.
All that said, three MLB-ready pitchers is a lot, you’re right. Bloom could replace the innings in free agency at a cost of many millions of dollars. But that’s what I’m showing here–Reynolds is a very valuable player. I never said that the deal was easily affordable–I said it was fair.
Paulino wasn’t protected because he is not one of Blooms guys. He should of been protected. I think it’s 50/50 if he gets selected. He’s most likely slated to start ‘23 in high A with an an early bump up to AA.
Houck wasn’t any where near ready to pitch in late September, he underwent lumbar discectomy surgery on Sept 5th.
The numbers may add up to fair but it’s not a fair trade for the Pirates
The Mayo Clinic says:
“Depending on the amount of lifting, walking and sitting your job involves, you may be able to return to work in 2 to 6 weeks. If you have a job that includes heavy lifting or operating heavy machinery, you might have to wait 6 to 8 weeks before returning to work.”
Two weeks after September 5 would have been September 19. Houck felt ready to pitch in late September. A full eight weeks would have been early November. Tanner Houck is ready to go, and the values here–and my offer–reflect that.
I don’t think that Paulino will be selected and immediately given a full year in MLB, clogging a roster spot, when he’s yet to play at the A+ level.
“Not a fair trade for the Pirates?” The numbers suggest that the deal is fair, but it’s certainly possible that the Pirates would prefer one very good outfielder to the players mentioned above. There’s no bias here that’s pro-Pirates.
SPINE HEALTH says;
Postoperative Care for Lumbar Microdiscectomy Surgery;
While different spine surgeons recommend somewhat different approaches to postoperative care after this type of surgery, several general aspects of recovery can be expected.
Most lumbar microdiscectomy patients are able to go home from the hospital a few hours after the surgery. The traditional approach to recovering from lumbar microdiscectomy has been to limit bending, lifting, or twisting for a minimum of 6 weeks in order to prevent the disc from herniating again.
While many doctors restrict too much activity for the first 6 weeks, LIMITED research suggests that restricting activities for 2 weeks following lumbar microdiscectomy may be sufficient for many patients.
Driving and light activities can typically be resumed after about 2 weeks.
Routine activities, such as work, school, and/or hobbies may be resumed within 6 weeks.
Strenuous labor or sports, especially contact sports, may be recommenced after 12 weeks or longer.
I say again;
No GM worth his salt is trading for a SP who just had back surgery until he has seen him pitch successfully and remain healthy no matter what the medicals or the player says. Houck is currently un tradeable.
I think there could be a team that can carry Paulino all year.
dajuba, even accepting your unlinked reference to some article at Spine Health I can’t find over the Mayo Clinic (and I did find “up to” 12 weeks for competitive sports), over 12 weeks have passed. A physical is routine with trades.
If you have concerns with Houck’s listed value, complain to the site owners, not me.
“I think there could be a team that can carry Paulino all year.”
OK, I’ll bite. Which team will pick Paulino?
I don’t know, any team that is rebuilding or decides to go into a re build, I doubt it’s contender or want to be a contender.
Houck is un tradeable until he pitches and pitches successfully and stays healthy no matter what the medicals say. No competent GM is trading for him before he sees it.
I don’t need to complain to the site owners. Houck numbers are suppressed right now due to performance and injury. Once he comes back and pitches successfully and proves himself healthy his numbers will rise.
I like to think that John Bitzer and others here are at least as good at evaluating talent as an average MLB GM. When you tell me repeatedly that Houck’s current value is zero, you’re criticizing them, not me. I’m using their assessment.
I looked back to 2018, and every position player who was selected and not returned in the MLB Rule 5 Draft had played above A-level ball. Paulino might be the exception, but it’s premature, in my estimation, to consider him “gone.”
That doesn’t make this a “Good Trade” for both sides. My first comment included why I posted this trade. It’s a demonstration of Reynolds’s value for a friend. Details aside, your reluctance to accept it as “Good” is reasonable.
I never said Houck had a value of zero, just that he is currently un tradeable until he pitches successfully and proves himself healthy. And that no GM would trade for him until he did.
I never said Paulino was “gone” just that I thought it was 50/50 that he’d get selected.
I gave 4 reasons why this wasn’t a “fair deal” which you said it was …..for a friend
i disagree with dajuda and think your trade is fair but no way the red sox trade two pivotal pitchers for an outfielder i can see us trading one of them(most likely houck) but not both
I agree that Houck would be more likely to be traded than Bello, and, yes, that’s a big hit on the rotation and bullpen, both of which were problem areas in 2022.